000
FXUS64 KOUN 060151 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
851 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING. SO HAVE
REMOVED POPS. STORMS TO THE WEST ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY CAN MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF FA TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER... MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE FA. REST
OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO OTHER CHANGES. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/ 

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER N-TX EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF SPS. ELSEWHERE...
T-STORMS OVER HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NM WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF
THE TERMINALS... ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS GENERATED BY THE ACTIVITY
COULD SPREAD INTO FAR WESTERN OK. SCU DECK AROUND 5K FT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THIS EVENING. EXCEPT
FOR PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG IN SW OK MONDAY MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE OUT OF OUR CWA BY EVENING.

ONE OF THE COOLEST NIGHTS IN QUITE SOME TIME TONIGHT...BEFORE
WARMING TREND COMMENCES TOMORROW. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AGAIN ON TAP
BY THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE RECENT RAIN WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME MUGGY CONDITIONS BUT GRIDDED INITIALIZATIONS STILL APPEAR
TO HIGH ON DEWPOINTS...WITH AFTERNOON UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S LATE
THIS WEEK. DECREASED THESE VALUES FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DRY
LAYER ABOVE SURFACE AND MIXING ALLOWING DIURNAL DROPS.

FOR POPS EARLY THIS WEEK...ALL MODELS HINT AT AT LEAST SOME
RESIDUAL MCS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN MASS FIELDS AND TIMING LEAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE POPS FAIRLY
LOW...WITH UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  90  68  94 /   0   0  10  10 
HOBART OK         66  91  70  97 /  10  10  20  10 
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  91  71  97 /  10  10  10  10 
GAGE OK           58  89  66  95 /  10  10  20  10 
PONCA CITY OK     62  88  66  93 /   0   0  10  10 
DURANT OK         67  87  69  94 /  10   0  10  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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