000
FXUS64 KOUN 080851
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
351 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS GENERATING
SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA. PRECIPITATION... IF ANY... FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT. MEANWHILE... A COLD FRONT CONSOLIDATING IN KANSAS
WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON... AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE LASTEST MODEL RUN
SLOWS THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS SLIGHTLY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT WITH THE BEST
CHANCES BEING IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL RELATIVELY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST... WE WILL AGAIN INITIALIZE TODAY'S TEMPERATURE GRIDS
USING THE NAM12 TO BETTER CAPTURE THE NON-STANDARD DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACE THAT WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS BACK UP ACROSS THE
AREA.

BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
DEVELOP AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IKE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER... AFTER THAT TIME... THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY IN IKE'S SUBSEQUENT TRACK. THESE
FACTORS RESULT IN LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN THE LATTER PERIODS
OF THE FORECAST. EVEN THE MOS HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN DRY
WEATHER AND RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RATHER
THAN YANKING OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN ALL TOGETHER AS THE CURRENT
GFS MOS SUGGESTS... WE WILL TREND THEM DOWN A LITTLE LOWER FOR NOW
UNTIL A MORE DEFINITE MODEL SOLUTION EMERGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  55  78  65 /  20  20  10  10 
HOBART OK         86  54  79  67 /  20  20  10  10 
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  58  80  68 /  20  20  20  10 
GAGE OK           86  50  76  61 /  20  10  10  10 
PONCA CITY OK     87  54  73  61 /  30  20  10  10 
DURANT OK         90  63  82  69 /  10  20  10  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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