000 FXUS64 KOUN 091139 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 539 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009 .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS... CONDITIONS VARYING ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS MORNING FROM MVFR STRATUS IN CENTRAL OK TO LIFR IN FOG PARTS OF W OK AND N TX TO NO PROBLEM SCENTRAL/SE OK. GENERAL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS TO TAKE MOST AREAS UP IN VSBY LATER THIS MORNING WHILE FILLING IN THE MVFR CIGS OVER A LARGER AREA. SOME CLEARING LIKELY BY EVENING... WHICH WOULD ONLY LEAD TO MORE FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NW OK WHERE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST. WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/ DISCUSSION... A LOT OF STUFF GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NW OK AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHILE LIGHTER STRATIFORM PRECIP IS INCREASING OVER S/E OK AND CENTRAL/E TX. MEANWHILE FOG IS LOWERING VISIBILITY FREQUENTLY TO 1/4 MILE AT NUMEROUS OB SITES AS WELL AS ALONG MUCH OF I-40 W OF OKC... PROMPTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LATEST GFS MOS GUIDANCE - POPS AND SKY CONDITION - IS HANDLING ALL OF THIS QUITE POORLY WHICH HAS REQUIRED MORE THAN THE USUAL MANUAL RETOOLING OF THE RESPECTIVE GRIDS. POPS ARE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST 20S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WEAKEN AND BACK... AT LEAST PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO GOINGS-ON IN THE GULF. THIS ALONG WITH PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER TX/OK WILL LEAD TO DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT. SFC AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUE-WED SO THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE VERY SIGNIFICANT. WE HAVE RAISED THE TEMPS ACCORDINGLY... ESPECIALLY MINS TUE NIGHT AS ALL OF THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME UP ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES SINCE YESTERDAY. WITH ALL THE STUFF GOING ON RIGHT NOW... WE HAVE OPTED TO INVOKE OUR STANDARD IN-HOUSE GRID INITIALIZATION FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL EDITING THEREAFTER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 53 68 50 / 30 20 10 0 HOBART OK 71 52 71 51 / 20 20 10 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 74 52 74 50 / 20 10 0 0 GAGE OK 62 46 66 47 / 30 20 10 0 PONCA CITY OK 68 50 66 51 / 40 20 10 0 DURANT OK 75 55 75 54 / 20 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ014>017- 021>024-033>035. TX...NONE. && $$ 03/24/24