000 FXUS61 KOKX 130355 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 1155 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2008 .SYNOPSIS... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA AND STALL THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND TRACK EAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... WITH THE LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT THE RAIN SHIELD HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINTS AND WINDS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT WITH THE LOW MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE STARTING TO BREAK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL ALSO LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH SO TO ALLOW FOR REAL FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL KEEP THE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BETWEEN NYC AND THE SUBURBS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE NORTHEAST FETCH TRANSPORTING AIR FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SPRING LIKE WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT AS A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL LIMIT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AVAILABLE TO THE FRONT...WHICH WILL WEAKEN AS PIT APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP FORECAST AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS TRENDING DRYER WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE EC IS STILL PRODUCING LIGHT QPF CWA-WIDE...BUT THE GFS HAS BACKED ALMOST COMPLETELY OFF ON QPF. UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. POLAR LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURS-FRI NOT HANDLED CONSISTENTLY BETWEEN THE GFS/EC. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT DO MUCH MORE THEN HEDGE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND TYPICAL POOR HANDLING OF SPRINGTIME CUTOFFS. LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SO CHC POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATE. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...BUT WITH CLOUDINESS MAY END UP A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST. VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN VFR. THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS AS NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS REMAIN AND GUSTS CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AT THE NEW YORK TERMINALS. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SUBSIDED TO ABOUT 10 KTS FROM THE NORTH. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. YET ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... WITH THE LOW MOVING FATHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS HAVE SUBSIDED AND ARE JUST AROUND SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SO HAVE DOWNGRADED THE GALE ONO THE EASTERN WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT. AS STORM DEPARTS...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT SEAS OVER THE OCEAN MAY REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LINGERING SWELL MAY BE SLOW TO DEPART. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SCA WINDS/SEAS FRIDAY OVER OUTER ATLC WATERS IN NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING OCEANIC SYSTEM. CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SCA ACROSS THE WATERS NEXT WEEKEND INTO MONDAY UNDER LIGHT FLOW. && .HYDROLOGY... A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MAY JUST CLIP THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF AT MOST. MOST OF THE QPF WITH THIS STORM STAYED OFF TO OUR SOUTH...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISSUES FROM THIS SYSTEM. TUE AND WED WILL BE DRY BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A LIGHT QPF EVENT BY THU. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND INTO NEW YORK CITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ONLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS WITH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. SO THE ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE PORTIONS THROUGH 8 AM TUESDAY. FOR LATER TONIGHT...NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK HARBOR OCCURS AROUND 3 TO 5 AM. EVEN THOUGH WINDS LIGHTEN AND REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...WHICH IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR TIDAL FLOODING AS COMPARED TO TRUE NORTHEAST WINDS...TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WOULD POSE A PROBLEM AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET AGAIN. AS SUCH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCALES LATER TONIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ072- 074>077-080. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$