000 FXUS61 KOKX 101352 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 852 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A NOR'EASTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CURRENT RADAR INTERPRETATION...BRIGHT BANDING IS DUE TO MAINLY TO RIMED SNOW AND NOT SO MUCH SLEET. SNOWFALL RATES ARE 0.5-1.0 INCHES PER HOUR. THE INCREASING REPORT FROM KISP (13Z) WAS FOR 0.6". THINK WE'RE SEEING 10 TO 1 RATIOS AT CURRENT TIME. THE AREA SOUTH OF MONTAUK IS LIKELY SOME MELTING. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WITH SNOWFALL REPORTS WILL BE ISSUED AT 2 HOUR INTERVALS WITH NEW REPORTS. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE AIRPORTS AND CENTRAL PARK DO NOT REPORT OUTSIDE OF SYNOPTIC HOURS (SIX HOURS) PER OBSERVING PROCEDURES. WE WILL GET A 4 PM REPORT FOR THE EVENING CLIMATE REPORTS. AT 13Z THE 988 HPA LOW WAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE DELAWARE BAY. MODELS ARE UNDER-DOING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. MOST GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SIMILAR WITH HANDLING OF LOW TRACK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY REST OF THE DAY AND LIKELY FALL SLIGHTLY AS HEAVIER PCPN OCCURS. WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE AT THIS HOUR AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS LOW BOMBS OUT. AS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WINDS STRONG WITH GUSTS DEFINITELY REACHING 35 TO 40 MPH. THE QUESTION IS SNOW INTENSITY AND THUS VSBYS. OVERALL FEEL CONDITIONS WILL BE MET NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS INCREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... BANDING CONTINUES BEHIND DEPARTING LOW AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AND REMAIN QUITE STRONG. STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR THIS EVENING...SO BEST CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE INTO THE EVENING. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW LIKELY AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. OVERALL QPF OF 3/4 OF AN INCH TO 1 1/2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST EXPECTED. BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WETTER NAM AND DRIER GFS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-16 INCHES OUTSIDE OF WHERE ANY MIXING WITH RAIN TAKES PLACE. FARTHER NORTH/EAST...LESSER QPF AND/OR MIXING WITH RAIN SHOULD HOLD ACCUMULATIONS DOWN A LITTLE...WITH 8-12 INCHES EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...WITH LOW PRES PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. SO...WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER. A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALSO PREDOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH IN PLACE AND NORTHERLY FLOW. GENERALLY FOLLOWED ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND STRONG E-NE WINDS...TURNING NW TONIGHT. GENERALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCNL VLIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR COASTAL TERMINALS OF KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KISP/KGON...SOME RAIN OR SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW. SNOW TAPERS OFF BY MIDNIGHT...THEN CIGS/VSBYS GRADUALLY IMPROVE. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE TURNING N AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PASSAGE OF LOW THIS EVENING... WINDS TURN N BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY UNCHANGED... JFK/LGA/EWR/TEB/ISP...10-14 INCHES BDR/GON/SWF...8-12 INCHES SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST RATES RANGING FROM 2-3 INCHES/HOUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUTLOOK 12Z THU THROUGH SUN... THU-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS EACH DAY...SUBSIDING AT NIGHT. && .MARINE... LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST...AND WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS ENE...JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. E/NE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ALL WATERS BY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORM FORCE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS TURN N/NE THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY DAYBREAK THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SCA CONDITIONS ON THU AS LOW PRES SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. 50 TO 55 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 16 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4 TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND LATER TODAY. GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. FRI THROUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS WILL BE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. GENERALLY A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL STORM. LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF CALLS FOR 0.75 INCH NORTH AND 1-1.5 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...PREDOMINANTLY SNOW. NO FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE MELTING RE-FREEZING IN THE SNOW PACK AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WITH THIS STORM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THU MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE DURING THE EVE HIGH TIDE...WHEN FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...3.5 TO 4 FT DEPARTURES ARE NEEDED...WHILE 2.5 TO 3 FT DEPARTURES ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. GFS SURGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS KINGS POINT AND BRIDGEPORT WILL HAVE THE NEAR 3 FT DEPARTURES...WITH COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE. OTHER LOCATIONS FALL ABOUT AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHORT OF WATER LEVELS NEEDED FOR COASTAL FLOODING. SURGE GUIDANCE FROM STEVENS INSTITUTE IS NOT HAS HIGH WITH BRIDGEPORT AND KINGS POINT WATER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS MORE THAN WHAT IS BEING PREDICTED...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 4 TO 5 FT MAY BE NOTED DURING THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN LOW PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING...BUT THESE DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 3 FT AS TIDES APPROACH ASTRONOMICAL HIGHS AND WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE N/NW. THIS SHOULD LIMIT COASTAL FLOODING TO MINOR LEVELS. HIGH WAVE ACTION ON THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF LI SOUND WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE THE MINOR FLOODING. WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS 2ND PERIOD ADVISORY TO LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFT MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR AND 3 TO 4 FT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EARLY THU MORNING. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURS MORN ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS DUE TO HIGH WAVE ACTION PREVENTING DRAINAGE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>012. NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>081. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>071. NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ005-006-011. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>004. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340- 345. STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MPS MARINE...MPS HYDROLOGY...PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...