000 FXUS61 KOKX 212116 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 416 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND INTO THE MARITIMES THOROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST SUNDAY...THEN MOVE UP COAST MONDAY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE TRI- STATE TO CLOSE THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. SOLID SC/ST WEST OF THE CWA IS DRYING SHARPLY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS...AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...SO EARLY MORNING FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. THIS IS NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THAT DECOUPLING SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AS NE WINDS PICK UP A BIT. UNDERCUT MOS IN GENERAL IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS ACROSS ORANGE/PUTNAM COUNTY AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LI. PERSISTENCE AND MOS VERY CLOSE ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... DEEP LAYER RIDGE PASSES NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE TO INCREASE. ALL IN ALL A DECENT DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH EAST WINDS. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AS COLD AIR DAMMING AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A PERIOD OF DECOUPLING...THUS FORECAST LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO END UP CLOSE TO TONIGHT'S. THIS PERIOD IS PERHAPS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST OF THE SHORT TERM. IF SURFACE WINDS STAY UP...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW GET HERE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN FORECAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A DIFFUSE COASTAL LOW...BUT THE WIND FIELDS ARE BIT MORE ALIGNED. PRECIP EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP TO LIKELY FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS ULTIMATELY DEPENDS ON IF THE LOW CENTER PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUT THE AREA IN THE BEST LIFT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST IN TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE 18Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF FROM ITS 1 TO 1.5 INCH FORECAST EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY WRAP AROUND...POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF TEMP VARIATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRES DEPARTS THE REGION TUE NGT WITH CHC POPS FOR -RA ENDING. SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH MRGNL MOISTURE...ONLY LGT PCPN EXPECTED ATTM. A LULL SETTLES IN WED NGT INTO THU...THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE THU AND FRI. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SFC. MODELS HINT AT LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST AND TRACKING NEWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. ALTHO THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLNS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ARE CLOSE AND A 980S LOW OCCLUDES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT MRNG. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NW FLOW UNDER 10 KT SHOULD VEER N TONIGHT...AND THEN NE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT...HIGHER AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS... TOWARD OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE OH VALLEY BUILDS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND. RADIATION FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AT KSWF AND KGON...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OTHER TERMINALS OUTSIDE THE NYC URBAN HEAT ISLAND FOR THIS POSSIBILITY CLOSE TO/JUST AFTER SUNRISE. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU... SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. MON NIGHT-TUE...SUB-VFR LIKELY. TUE NIGHT-WED...BECOMING VFR. THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE THE WATERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL NOT SEE 25 KTS UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE FORCE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LINGER TUE NGT INTO WED...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS LOW PRES WEAKENS N OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A COMPLEX LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BS NEAR TERM...BS SHORT TERM...BS LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...BG MARINE...BG/JMC HYDROLOGY...BS