931 FGUS74 KMRX 051806 ESFMRX NCC039-043-TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067- 073-089-091-093-105-107-115-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-153-155- 163-171-173-179-VAC105-167-169-191-195-520-720-061800- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 100 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 /1200 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015/ ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA... INTRODUCTION... THIS IS THE 2015 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN TENNESSEE FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS ISSUANCE OUTLINES CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT WOULD INDUCE FLOODING OR EXACERBATE DROUGHT. IN SUMMARY...THE 2015 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE. THE FOLLOWING SECTIONS DESCRIBE PAST AND CURRENT CONDITIONS AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS. SNOW PACK... VERY LITTLE SNOW PACK REMAINED FROM THE WINTER STORMS OF FEBRUARY. HOWEVER...WINTER WEATHER IS OCCURRING TODAY...AND WILL PRODUCE A FRESH SNOW COVER OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ADJACENT CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS OF TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THIS SNOW PACK COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS MOSTLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW PACK OVER THE APPALACHIANS...BUT TODAYS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAYBE 1 INCH OF NEW SNOW THERE WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. BRIEF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE VALLEY. MOST OF TODAYS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION... OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND THE ADJACENT CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS. BUT PRECIPITATION WAS ONLY 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. PRECIPITATION IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WAS NEAR NORMAL FROM WATTS BAR LAKE NORTHEASTWARD...BUT WAS ONLY 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST INCLUDING CHATTANOOGA. OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS...NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND THE ADJACENT CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS. BUT PRECIPITATION WAS ONLY 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. PRECIPITATION IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WAS 75 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM WATTS BAR LAKE NORTHEASTWARD...BUT ONLY 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL TO THE SOUTHWEST INCLUDING CHATTANOOGA. TEMPERATURES... AFTER A MILD DECEMBER THAT RAN 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... JANUARY WAS 1 TO 2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BUT FEBRUARY WAS VERY COLD...AVERAGING 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...OUR TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST 90 DAYS HAVE AVERAGED ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DROUGHT... AREAS OF D0...D ZERO...OR OF ABNORMALLY DRY STATUS...WERE NOTED FROM RUSSELL AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA...DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS MAINLY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARION...HAMILTON...BRADLEY...AND POLK COUNTIES OF TENNESSEE. SOIL MOISTURE... OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT SNOW MELT AND RAIN HAS THE NEAR SURFACE SOILS VERY MOIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. STREAMFLOWS... WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN FEBRUARY PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE ONSET OF WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLIER THIS WEEK COMBINED WITH RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT DRIVEN FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND INTO THE POWELL AND CLINCH BASINS OF NORTHERN TENNESSEE...AND ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TENNESSEE. THIS FLOODING IS THE FIRST RIVER FLOODING OF NOTE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. THEREFORE THERE ARE ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS ON THE HOLSTON...CLINCH...POWELL...AND EMORY RIVERS. STREAMFLOWS ON THESE RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SPECIFICALLY...IN THE HEADWATER AREAS IN VIRGINIA...THE UPPER CLINCH AND UPPER HOLSTON BASIN STREAMFLOWS ARE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOWER CLINCH AND POWELL BASIN STREAMFLOWS OF TENNESSEE ARE CURRENTLY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE RIVERS WHOSE HEADWATER AREAS ARE IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...THE FRENCH BROAD...UPPER PIGEON... LITTLE TENNESSEE AND HIWASSEE RIVERS...STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL. THE ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOLLOWING A NOTABLE PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT EVENT...AND THOSE RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE FALLS TOWARD NORMAL STREAMFLOWS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF DAILY NORMAL ARE GIVEN FOR RIVER POINTS IN...OR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM...OUR HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. RIVER... LOCATION... 3/4/15 N FORK HOLSTON RIVER SALTVILLE VA 766% MID FORK HOLSTON RIVER SEVEN MILE FORD VA 746% CLINCH RIVER CLEVELAND VA 872% CLINCH RIVER TAZEWELL TN 546% POWELL RIVER ARTHUR TN 584% EMORY RIVER OAKDALE TN 360% PIGEON RIVER HEPCO NC 123% FRENCH BROAD RIVER ASHEVILLE NC 81% TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN RESERVOIR LEVELS... THE PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE FOR RESERVOIRS IN THE TENNESSEE BASIN ABOVE CHATTANOOGA IS 99 PERCENT. METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK... THE WEEK TWO OUTLOOK FOR DAYS 8 TO 14 SHOWS GOOD PROBABILITIES FOR WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE TRENDS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LONGER TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF MARCH THROUGH MAY INDICATES NO DISCERNIBLE TREND FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...OR TO PUT IT ANOTHER WAY...THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES THAT THINGS COULD TURN OUT ABOVE...NEAR...OR BELOW NORMAL. THE 2015 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK... BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BASINS. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THIS OUTLOOK WAS CREATED WITH INPUT FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...STATE AND COUNTY OFFICIALS...AND VARIOUS COOPERATIVE WEATHER SPOTTERS. FOR MORE INFORMATION THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES ARE USEFUL: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MORRISTOWN HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV HTTP://WWW.TVA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TN.GOV HTTP://WWW.DEQ.VIRGINIA.GOV HTTP://WWW.NCWATER.ORG HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU HTTP://WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV YOU MAY ALSO CONTACT... FOR GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION OR FORECASTS...CALL 423-586-3771 FOR INFORMATION RELATED TO THIS OUTLOOK CONTACT... GLENN CARRIN, SERVICE HYDROLOGIST, 423-586-3771 GEORGE MATHEWS, METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE 423-586-1964 MEDIA ONLY PLEASE OR WRITE GLENN.CARRIN@NOAA.GOV AND GEORGE.MATHEWS@NOAA.GOV $$ GDC