000 AXUS74 KMRX 061643 DGTMRX DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1200 PM EDT THU NOV 6 2008 ...DROUGHT CONTINUES DEEPENS IN EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA... SYNOPSIS... THE LAST RAINFALL OF ANY AMOUNT IN THE REGION OCCURRED ON OCTOBER 25. THIS HAS ALLOWED STREAMS TO FALL TO NEAR RECORD AND RECORD LOW LEVELS AGAIN. WELLS AND SPRINGS CONTINUE TO RUN VERY LOW AND IN SOME PLACES, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, HAVE RUN DRY. HENCE, THE DROUGHT DEEPENS. WHILE FROM MAPS THE ACTUAL DROUGHT CATEGORIES MAY NOT APPEAR TO HAVE WORSENED, IT IS POSSIBLE TO REMAIN IN THE SAME CATEGORY AND ACTUALLY DEEPENED CLOSER TO THE NEXT CATEGORY DOWN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CLAY COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA, AND THE ADJACENT PORTION OF CHEROKEE COUNTY, WHICH DROPPED INTO D4 DROUGHT STATUS. DETAILS BELOW. ALL GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTIONS BELOW ARE APPROXIMATE: D4 (EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE VAST BULK OF CLAY COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA. THE ALSO EXIST OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST CHEROKEE COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF ANDREWS. D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MOST OF CHEROKEE COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA, AND OVER CLAY COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF BRASSTOWN. IN VIRGINIA, THEY COVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LEE, SCOTT, AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE CITY OF BRISTOL. IN EAST TENNESSEE D3 CONDITIONS COVER MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND CONASAUGA TO ETOWAH TO OLIVER SPRINGS TO BIG SOUTH FORK NATIONAL RIVER AND RECREATION AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE KNOXVILLE AND TRI-CITIES METRO AREAS. D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE COUNTIES OF MORGAN, ROANE, RHEA, MEIGS, MCMINN, BRADLEY, HAMILTON, MARION, SEQUATCHIE, AND BLEDSOE. IN VIRGINIA THEY COVER THE MAJORITY OF LEE, SCOTT, WASHINGTON, WISE, AND RUSSELL COUNTIES, AND THE CITY OF NORTON. D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT COVERS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF MARION COUNTY, TENNESSEE. D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) CONDITIONS DO NOT EXIST IN THE AREA. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NORMALLY THE DRIEST SEASON, SO IMPACTS MAY BE HIDDEN BY WHAT APPEAR TO BE NORMAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, CONTINUED DRYNESS, NORMAL OR NOT, WILL ONLY DEEPEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SPRINGS, WELLS, AND SMALL STREAMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THAT REBOUNDED IN LATE SUMMER ARE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN, AND WATER IS BEING TRUCKED TO RESIDENTS IN SPORADIC LOCATIONS AROUND THE REGION. SOME WATER DISTRICTS ARE ON LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. FOR INFORMATION ON LOCAL WATER RESTRICTIONS, PLEASE CALL YOUR WATER BOARD. SOME AREAS ARE REQUIRING BURN PERMITS. CONTACT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. SEE STATE WEBSITES AT THE END OF THIS STATEMENT. CLIMATE SUMMARY... RAINFALL AT INDIVIDUAL POINTS IS NOT ALWAYS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF AN AREA`S PRECIPITATION. LONG TERM RAINFALL OVER LARGE AREAS IS A MORE REALISTIC REPRESENTATION A REGION`S RAIN SITUATION. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE MAIN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OBSERVATION POINTS FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2008: SITE RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM CHATTANOOGA 73.55 100.05 -26.50 74 KNOXVILLE 69.25 88.53 -19.28 78 TRI-CITIES 51.13 76.63 -25.50 67 NWS MORRISTOWN 57.43 82.24 -24.81 70 RAIN TOTALS OVER LARGE AREAS SUCH AS RESERVOIR DRAINAGE BASINS IS A MUCH BETTER INDICATOR OF AN AREA`S "RAIN HEALTH" THAN SIMPLE POINT TOTALS. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE TVA BASINS IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER DRAINAGE FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2008: BASIN RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM SOUTH HOLSTON 61.05 80.92 -19.87 75 WATAUGA 64.33 85.81 -21.48 75 BOONE 60.80 82.54 -21.74 74 CHEROKEE 58.55 79.99 -21.44 73 DOUGLAS 62.06 86.35 -24.29 72 FONTANA 76.06 106.92 -30.86 71 NORRIS 60.54 83.71 -23.17 72 MELTON HILL 64.69 90.37 -25.68 72 CHATUGE 68.75 82.23 -13.48 84 NOTTELY 78.26 99.87 -21.61 78 HIWASSEE 71.07 104.12 -33.05 68 FT. LOUDOUN/TELLICO 60.93 88.54 -27.61 69 WATTS BARR 68.74 93.39 -24.65 74 CHICKAMAUGA 61.39 96.58 -35.19 64 NICKAJACK 61.16 97.63 -36.48 63 GUNTERSVILLE 59.53 98.36 -38.83 61 AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION DURING THE LAST WEEK HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL, AND CLIMBING. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THROUGH THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL AND RAINFALL ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF NOVEMBER IS EXPECTED TO BE A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH ABOUT NORMAL RAINFALL. FOR DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY, CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE FOR WARM AND ON THE DRY SIDE. TROPICAL STORM SEASON ENDED WITH OCTOBER. WE ARE APPROACHING THE SEASON WHERE MORE FREQUENT FRONTS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARE MORE TYPICAL. THE TYPICALLY "RAINY" SEASON LASTS FROM DECEMBER THROUGH ABOUT MAY, SO THIS SEASON WILL DETERMINE TO A GREAT EXTENT HOW THE DROUGHT WILL BEHAVE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE LATEST OUTLOOK (ISSUED NOVEMBER 6) IS FOR THE DROUGHT TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION BUT WITH SPORADIC IMPROVEMENTS. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... DURING THE LAST WEEK STREAMS IN THE REGION HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY. SMALLER FEEDER STREAMS ARE THE MOST APPARENT, WITH LARGER RIVERS BECOMING MORE OBVIOUS. THE TENNESSEE RIVER, BEING CONTROLLED FOR ITS ENTIRE LENGTH, IS ALWAYS THE LAST TO RESPOND. MANY STREAMS ARE AT RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD LOW FLOWS FOR THE DATE, AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO NO RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. THE OUTLOOK FOR LARGE TRIBUTARIES OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH AUTUMN IS FOR A LESS THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM AND THE NUMBER OF HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE HYDROGRAPHY OF THE INDIVIDUAL STREAM. THINGS LIKE LOCAL GEOGRAPHY, WHETHER SINKHOLES ACCOUNT FOR MUCH UNDERGROUND STORAGE, LOCAL LAND USE, FLORA, AND SO FORTH, WILL ALSO HAVE AN INFLUENCE. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR BEFORE NOVEMBER 28, 2008 DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. IF NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES OCCUR IN THE DROUGHT SITUATION, IT WILL BE LATER THAN SOONER. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AND KEEP YOU ABREAST. RELATED WEB SITES... FOR ONE-STOP SHOPPING ON THE DROUGHT IN THE REGION GO TO HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX/HYDRO/DROUGHT07/MAIN.PHP OR YOU CAN GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV THEN CLICK ON THE EAST TENNESSEE REGION, AND THEN CLICK ON THE DROUGHT INFORMATION LINK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MORRISTOWN, TENNESSEE HOME PAGE. YOU MAY ALSO VISIT WWW.TVA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LAKES LEVELS, STREAMFLOWS, AND RAINFALL IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY SYSTEM. STREAMFLOW DATA CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AT HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT AND THEN CLICKING ON YOUR STATE OF INTEREST. ADDITIONAL LONG TERM STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED AT THE NWS MORRISTOWN "ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES" WEBSITE AT HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MRX THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY HAS FIRE INFORMATION AT HTTP://BURNSAFETN.ORG THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY HAS FIRE INFORMATION AT WWW.DOF.VIRGINIA.GOV THE NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF FOREST RESOURCES IS LOCATED AT WWW.DFR.STATE.NC.US FOR SPECIFIC DATA, DROUGHT INDICES, AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT PICTURE WITH CLICKABLE ZOOMING, GO TO HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... APPRECIATION FOR THE DATA IN THIS DOCUMENT GOES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY (TVA), UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS), THE STATES OF TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA, THE COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA, THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE), THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY, THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY, THE NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF FOREST RESOURCES, THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE (NPS), THE NATIONAL FOREST SERVICE (NFS), THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA AT LINCOLN FOR HOSTING THE DROUGHT MONITOR WEBSITE, AND NUMEROUS COUNTY, CITY, AND UTILITY OFFICIALS. ALSO, THANKS TO VARIOUS MEDIA OUTLETS INCLUDING TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS AND NEWSPAPERS, FOR ASKING THE QUESTIONS THE DRIVE THE GATHERING OF DATA AND INFORMATION ON DROUGHT IMPACTS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... FOR MORE INFORMATION OR FOR MEDIA INTERVIEWS PLEASE CONTACT: BRIAN BOYD SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST/METEOROLOGIST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 5974 COMMERCE BLVD. MORRISTOWN, TN 37814 423-586-1964 (MEDIA ONLY; FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE) 423-586-2296 (ALL OTHER CALLS; MAY GET VOICE MAIL) 423-586-6429 (FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE, NON-MEDIA CALLS) EMAIL: BRIAN.BOYD@NOAA.GOV WEBSITE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX NOTE: IN THE EVENT THE ABOVE PERSON IS NOT AVAILABLE, OTHER STAFF MEMBERS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP YOU.