000 FXUS64 KMOB 091046 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 446 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE FORECAST HAS CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A FORECAST LANDFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FORECAST (LATE TONIGHT). TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IDA ARE NOW BEING DETECTED BY MOBILE RADAR...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BAND (ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA) THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NORTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND 70 TO 90 PERCENT COVERAGE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM HPC...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES EAST OF THE RIVER...AND FROM ONE-HALF TO 2 INCHES WEST OF THE RIVER. A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN BANDS REACH THE COAST. /22 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY STARTS WITH THE CENTER OF IDA MOVING ONSHORE ON THE ESCAMBIA COUNTY...FL COASTLINE(PER LATEST NHC FORECAST) AS A LOW END CAT 1. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS FORECAST...SO AM MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GFS TO SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT. WITH IDA MOVING OVER MID 70 DEGREE WATERS CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND INCREASING SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THIS MOST LIKELY WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. AS IDA MOVES ONSHORE...AND GETS SWEPT UP BY THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND SWEPT OFF...WITH THE AREA CLEARING OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. FROM THERE...THE FA COMES UNDER A DRY PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GFS/MAV FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWING ARE BUMPING TEMPS DOWN A BIT TUESDAY....AND POPS UP FOR THE SAME PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE WEST SWIRLS AROUND AND ORGANIZES INTO AN UPPER LOW...WITH ANOTHER MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER NEW ENGLAND BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO A STRONG CLOSED SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST...AS THE TWO CLOSED SYSTEMS HAVE BECOME ORGANIZED AND HAVE PUSHED EAST. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE WITH THE PATH/SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING A FRONT CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING///WHILST THE ECMWF HAS IT STARTING ACROSS THE MISS DELTA. && .AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z...FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BEYOND 18Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS HURRICANE IDA APPROACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE PENSACOLA TAF SITE AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST COMBINED WITH HURRICANE IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CREATE STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE LATER THIS MORNING...AND SPREADING NORTHWARD AND REACHING THE INSHORE WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL MARINE AREAS TONIGHT. SEAS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IDA BY LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS IDA MOVES INLAND NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HURRICANE IDA. /22 && .FIRE WEATHER...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH IDA WILL CREATE HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER IDA...OR THE REMAINS THEREOF MOVE OFF...THE AREA WILL COME UNDER DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 70 63 73 52 74 / 60 100 30 00 00 PENSACOLA 74 66 72 52 76 / 80 100 40 05 00 DESTIN 73 68 71 60 75 / 80 100 50 10 00 EVERGREEN 69 63 69 49 75 / 40 100 50 05 00 WAYNESBORO 69 60 70 47 73 / 50 80 40 00 00 CAMDEN 69 61 68 48 74 / 40 100 60 05 00 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER MOBILE. HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER MOBILE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON... CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE... MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...AND WILCOX. TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON... CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX. FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA... COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA... AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA... INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. MS...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE. GM...HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM... COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ 22/16