000 FXUS64 KMOB 051605 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1100 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .UPDATE...05.12 UPPER AIR MAPS INDICATE A FLAT E/W RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MORE ACTIVE HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES IMPACTING THE MID SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...WE ANALYZE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WESTWARD...INTERSECTING A WEAK FRONTAL LOW NEAR KPAH->PADUCAH KENTUCKY. FROM THIS POINT...THE FRONT CONTINUES WESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROFS ARE MINGLING WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. SATELLITE SHOWS POCKETS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS->TSTMS MOVING EASTWARD...SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL AXIS AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. FROM SATELLITE TRENDS...THE POSITIONING OF THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. CONSIDERING THIS...ALONG WITH A FORECAST OF INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PWATS EXCEEDING 1.75") AND ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION TO 2-4K J/KG DURING TIME OF BEST SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER THE REGION. FORECAST UPPER AIR THERMAL PROFILES AND MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION...SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A HIGH RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS WITH MOST TSTMS HAVING A GOOD POTENTIAL OF DEPOSITING WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THESE STORMS CAN BRING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS/BRANCHES AND BLOW DOWN UNSECURED OBJECTS. SOME OF THE STORMS CAN ALSO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH BEING POSSIBLE IN THESE. OTHER HAZARDS IN AND NEAR TSTMS WILL BE OCCURRENCES OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WILL BE UPDATING THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR LATEST WET MICROBURST RISK ASSESSMENT. LATEST GRIDS DO NOT SUPPORT A NEED FOR CHANGES ATTM TO TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM. /10 .....................FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA. WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER LIFT OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ADDITIONAL SEA BREEZE SUPPORT...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY THEN CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE GULF RIDGE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...THEN THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO A NEARLY SATURATED 2.3 TO 2.4 INCHES ON MONDAY AS A RESULT THEN DECREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES ON TUESDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HPC QPF LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER LOCAL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPLY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR NOW. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE AND CONSIDERING THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS POSITION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29 && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE WEAK SURFACE TROF/BOUNDARY MANAGES TO LINGER OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO A CONTINUING SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THEN DISSIPATES ON THURSDAY. A LAZARUS EFFECT OF SORTS OCCURS ON FRIDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES RESURRECT THE WEAK TROF OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS MEANWHILE ALLOWING FOR A PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. /29 && .AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING NEAR AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. /32 && .MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE COAST. SOME STORMS MAY STRONG BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. /32 && .FIRE...NO CONCERNS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 95 76 88 72 / 30 40 70 30 PENSACOLA 92 77 88 75 / 20 40 70 40 DESTIN 88 78 87 77 / 20 40 70 40 EVERGREEN 95 73 86 71 / 40 60 70 30 WAYNESBORO 95 71 89 68 / 30 60 70 30 CAMDEN 95 73 87 71 / 40 70 70 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$