000 FXUS64 KMOB 092006 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008 .SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT PACKAGE...BIGGEST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IS THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY... IN THE UPPER PATTER OVER THE CONUS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WERE NOTED...WITH THE ONE WHICH PASSED NORTH OF THE AREA YESTERDAY (ACTUALLY TWO CLOSE SHORTWAVES) IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA BORDER AT THIS TIME...AND A CLOSED SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE MT/CA BORDER. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LATIN AMERICA HAS HELPED TO DEFLECT MOST UPPER ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE...THE ENERGY PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA HAS LEFT A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BIG BEND OF THE RIO GRANDE TO OVER AR...THEN EAST ALONG THE TN/AL/MS STATE LINE BEFORE HEADING TOWARDS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DELMARVA AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL STRETCHING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEX FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE SYSTEM OVER THE MT/CA BORDER SWINGING SOUTHEAST...DIPPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ORGANIZING AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE MID MISS RIVER AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS BEFORE ENDING UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE PRECEDING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...TO OVER CENTRAL MS/AL/GA ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE...SATURDAY AHEAD OF MAIN EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT CROSSING THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SLOWING AS IT GOES BEFORE STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...SOUTH OF THE MARINE FA. WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM IS BEING ADVERTISED AS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET TRIES TO ORGANIZE AHEAD OF THE 850MB TROUGH...WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL OMEGAS SQUARE OVER (IN A SW TO NE LAYOUT) AT 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAKLY ORGANIZED JET DYNAMICS. CURRENT SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK DIPPING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA FOR THE 10/12Z TO 13/12Z TIME FRAME AND A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FOR THE 13/12Z TO 14/12Z TIME FRAME. .LONG TERM (MONDAY ON)...MONDAY STARTS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AS SUNDAY WEATHER MAKER PULLS AWAY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A BUNCH OF UPPER ENERGY STARTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THIS ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST...TO OVER THE LOWER RIO GRAND RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORN...SEEMING OBLIVIOUS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTH. AS IT SWINGS EAST...THEN GETS DEFLECTED NORTHEAST DUE TO RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...IT PUSHES A FRONT ACROSS THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING DECENT LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED...CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT...MODEL TIMING HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT LATELY...AND THIS IS FIVE DAYS AWAY...AND AM GOING TO JUST KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW. && .MARINE...DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE TO EASE BACK WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MARINE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS POST-FRONTAL OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A FEW HOURS AFTER THE WINDS INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE MARINE AREA RATHER QUICKLY..SO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED ACROSS TEXAS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...PULLING A FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE AREA BY THURSDAY. /11 && .FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN A SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE ARE PUSHES A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIGHTEN MONDAY INT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 70 87 72 87 58 / 05 10 20 40 05 PENSACOLA 73 87 72 87 63 / 00 10 20 30 10 DESTIN 73 83 74 83 67 / 00 10 20 30 10 EVERGREEN 69 88 68 83 53 / 05 20 40 40 05 WAYNESBORO 65 89 68 83 52 / 00 20 40 50 05 CAMDEN 67 88 67 82 51 / 05 20 50 50 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 11/16