000 FXUS62 KMLB 080943 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 443 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .DISCUSSION... ...WINDY TODAY AND MONDAY... ...ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK... TODAY/TONIGHT...EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL FL AS TC IDA LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HAVE RAISED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOCUSING ON CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER...20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE TREASURE COAST OF MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS...UP TO 35 MPH. ALTHOUGH A FEW FAST MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY PUSH ONSHORE...AND POSSIBLY WELL INLAND...ATMOS REMAINS QUITE DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE. HAVE KEPT A SILENT 10% POP. TC IDA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING ONLY PERIPHERAL EFFECTS ON EC FL. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW DISCRETE ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATING RAINFALL TONIGHT IN A FEW SPOTS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL EFFECTS FROM IDA OR ITS REMAINS FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF IDA IS NOT EXTENSIVE AND WITH EXPECTED MOTION OF IDA OVER NEXT 48 HOURS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AND DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULLED IN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO WEST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. BUT CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND MOVING ONSHORE AS IDA PULLS NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF. THE WORKING SCENARIO FOR THIS PACKAGE IS ON MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND IDA IN THE GULF AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MONDAY AS WELL. LOW RAIN CHANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AND INLAND DURING DAY MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE ON MONDAY AS IDA MOVES INTO NORTHERN GULF. SHEAR INCREASES OVER IDA ON MONDAY AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING CONVECTION BUT THE GREATEST HELICITY IS CURRENTLY PROGGED WELL WEST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TRW EXPECTED AS THE REMAINS OF IDA RACE NORTHEAST AND EVOLVE INTO EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SPREADS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY THURSDAY AND A STRONG ET LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LARGE SWELL THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... VFR. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE IDA TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS TODAY ESP MCO SOUTH. EXPECT RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS INTRR AIRPORTS AROUND MID MORNING AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH SFC HEATING. EAST WINDS 17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY MCO SOUTH. SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FPR/SUA. && .MARINE... POOR BOATING CONDITIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE IDA TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN WATERS SHOULD SEE MORE NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN EAST WINDS...20 TO 25 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST. EXPECT VERY CHOPPY SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY AND 9 FEET TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WATERS TODAY AND WILL INCLUDE ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT. ROUGH SURF AND A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY. LARGE SWELL WILL DEVELOP AS EXTRA TROPICAL LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS UP UNTIL THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 80 68 82 72 / 10 10 20 40 MCO 82 66 84 70 / 10 10 20 40 MLB 81 73 84 76 / 10 10 20 30 VRB 82 74 84 77 / 10 10 20 30 LEE 81 67 84 70 / 10 10 20 40 SFB 83 66 85 71 / 10 10 20 40 ORL 82 66 85 71 / 10 10 20 40 FPR 82 75 84 76 / 10 10 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD- OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KELLY LONG TERM....HAGEMEYER