000
FXUS62 KMLB 041343
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
943 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPED FROM OKEECHOBEE AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES NORTHWARD THROUGH BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES AND
PRODUCED AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG BRIEFLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT
OBS NOW SHOWING RAPID IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY WITH SOME
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. SHOULD SEE REST OF THE STRATUS BURN OFF OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A
WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND SOUTH OF THE CAPE WITH ONLY SLIGHT INLAND MOVEMENT
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE ORLANDO AREA WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES. A
FEW STRONG STORMS THOUGH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL BE A HOT AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER INLAND AREAS THAT DON'T GET RELIEF FROM THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S. ALONG THE COAST HIGHS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. NO UPDATES PLANNED AS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE TEMPO IFR CIGS
FOR KMLB AND KVRB THROUGH 15Z...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDS RETURNING.
WILL SEE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS LATE TODAY CREATING TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS...HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER TODAY SO WILL
JUST KEEP VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...ENOUGH SO THAT A SEA BREEZE WILL
FORM FOR A CHANGE ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY OVER LAND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS...BUT THE CHANCES FOR
OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL BE LOWER DUE TO WEAKER STEERING FLOW.
STILL A FEW MAY PUSH ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS BUT SHOULD NOT
MOVE VERY FAR OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SEA AND LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTIONS OVER LAND SHOULD PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. MOVEMENT WILL
BE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/CRISTALDI