000 FXUS62 KMLB 130711 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 310 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2008 ...DESPITE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH TODAY... .DISCUSSION... TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFYING FROM GULF OF MEXICO UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE SE U.S COAST AT THE SAME TIME AND ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE COMPONENT. DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LACK OF CLOUDS OVER ATLANTIC NEAR THE COAST AND MIMIC PWAT IMAGERY INDICATING AIR MASS STILL VERY DRY OVER ATLANTIC OFF SE COAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. WILL CONTINUE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR SOUTH BREVARD COUNTY THROUGH 8 AM DUE TO VSBY PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED DUE TO SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILDFIRES. AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING...SMOKE PLUMES WILL ALSO SHIFT WITH SMOKE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FIRES. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE FIRE WX DETAILS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS INTO WED MORNING BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED AREAWIDE. WED-THU NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY WED AND REMAIN SITUATED IN THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH THU AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EASTERLY WINDS WED WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY WED NIGHT-THU AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE GOMEX FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS ALOFT MAINLY WEST/NORTHWEST. HIGHS/LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ON WED AND NEAR CLIMO FOR THU. CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. FRI-MON...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND MID-ATLC STATES...THOUGH OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ZONAL. THE GFS DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. WHILE PCPN CHANCES REMAIN SCANT THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD IT APPEARS THAT OUR BEST CHANCES OF SEEING THE SLIGHTEST RELIEF FROM OUR CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY'S PASSAGE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PCPN CHANCES GROUNDED AT LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE AS TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAIN QUESTIONABLE. AFTER THIS FRONT'S PASSAGE EXPECT A MAINLY WESTERLY COMPONENT OF WIND IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE APPEAR LIGHT ENOUGH THAT WE COULD SEE INITIATION OF A SEA BREEZE EACH DAY SAT-MON ALONG THE EAST COAST BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT FORESEE IT PENETRATING TOO FAR INLAND. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY ALOFT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH & LOW TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION...VFR OUTSIDE OF REDUCED VSBY IN FU FROM ONGOING WILD FIRES IN VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTIES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS MEAN THE DOWNWIND PROBLEM AREAS WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE FIRES BUT AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE THIS MORNING...VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM SMOKE PLUMES WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE SW OF THE FIRES. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY OVER WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE GA/SC COAST. SOME INCREASE IN SEAS DUE TO SWELL WILL OCCUR BY TONIGHT AND CAUTION STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN PART OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WED-SAT...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WATERS WED-EARLY FRI WILL BE REPLACED BRIEFLY BY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. EASTERLY FLOW ON WED VEERS TO SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THU EVENING BEFORE VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY FRI-EARLY SAT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SPEEDS TYPICALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS OFFSHORE UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHERE OFFSHORE WINDS MAY INCREASE 15-20 KTS DUE TO A TIGHTENING PGRAD BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLC SFC HIGH AND THE APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL BE ON THE RISE TWD ADVISORY CONDITIONS WED-EARLY FRI DUE TO A NORTHEAST SWELL. WILL CAP WINDS OFFSHORE AT UP TO 8 FT FOR NOW. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE FRI AFTN-SAT. && .FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE SC/GA COAST. WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP RH VALUES SOMEWHAT...LACK OF CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MIMIC PWAT IMAGERY INDICATING AIR MASS STILL QUITE DRY OVER ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR SE U.S. COAST. THIS SUGGESTS THAT EVEN THOUGH RH DROPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO AS LOW AS OCCURRED ON MON...CRITICAL LOW DURATIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AND ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE INLAND PARTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL EC FL COUNTIES. RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID/UPPER 20S INTERIOR...AND NEAR 30/LOWER 30S COASTAL COUNTIES. WHILE WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL STILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A CALM DAY BY ANY MEANS. WED-SAT...EVEN WITH ONSHORE FLOW VERY DRY AIR WILL STILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA (INTERIOR) ON WED AND HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS DAY FOR LOW DURATION RH. INTERIOR COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIDDLE 30S/LOWER 40S FOR RH VALUES AGAIN THU AND PERHAPS FRI AS WELL. A BIT OF MOISTENING OCCURS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...THOUGH DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE SAT AFTN COULD DRIVE RH'S TOWARD CRITICAL LEVELS IF AMOUNT OF FCST DRYING IS ACCURATE OVER THE NORTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 61 81 65 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 86 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 83 63 82 68 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 83 62 81 66 / 0 0 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE- SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE- OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE. DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN BREVARD. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GLITTO LONG TERM....SEDLOCK