000 FXUS62 KMHX 060041 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 841 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE COAST BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT SINKS TO THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SFC FRONT REMAIN JUST N OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST LOW LVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE. SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE N PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE...WITH A THICK CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING TO ALL BUT FAR S PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE S SECTIONS COULD STILL SEE SOME DEVELOPING TSRA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH SUNSET. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER OR JUST N OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS COMING IN AFT MIDNIGHT. THIS LAGGING SO FAR FROM PEAK HEATING SHOULD GREATLY HELP LIMIT STRONG TO SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT. WITH ANY DEVELOPING STORMS EXP PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD S OVERNIGHT. DUE TO AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD THE GROUND WILL LIKELY HANDLE EVEN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LIMITED PONDING OR FLOODING CONCERNS. LOOKING AT EVENT LONG QPF AROUND 0.5-1" ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FRONT IS EXP TO TAKE ITS TIME CLEARING THE COAST ON MON...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES UP THROUGH AT LEAST A GOOD HALF OF THE DAY. IN THE N PORTIONS EXP RAIN TO TAPER OFF MUCH EARLIER AND COULD EVEN SEE THE SUN POP OUT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WHILE S SECTION WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE MID 80S UNLESS FRONT CLEARS OUT A BIT EARLIER. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL LINGER CLOSER TO THE COASTAL WATERS OFFSHORE THROUGH TUE...AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF VARIOUS WEAK WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG IT COULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVING BACK ONSHORE. HAVE KEPT POPS ALONG THE S COAST INTO TUE...THOUGH COVERAGE AND DURATION NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF HOWEVER DOES SHOW A BULLSEYE OF A COUPLE INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SUCH WAVE DURING THE DAY ON TUE. FEEL THIS APPEARS OVERDONE SO WILL HOLD WITH 20 POPS FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A HIGH WILL BUILD TO OUR N MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THE N WINDS AND HOLD THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THE UPPER LVL PATTERN IS FINALLY SHOWING A BREAK DOWN OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS TIME AS WELL AS A LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 840 PM SUNDAY...MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOW WELL N AND E OF THE TAF SITES. THINK PRECIP WILL FILL BACK IN LATER PER LATEST NAM AND LOCAL ARW MODEL AND EXPECT MAINLY MVFR DURING AFTER 06Z OR 07Z WITH SOME LOCALIZED IFR AS MAIN BRUNT OF PCPN FALLS DURING THE EARLY MORN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS POSTFRONTAL DRYING FILTERS IN AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW/MID CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SOUTHERN AREAS BUT EXPECT VFR CIGS. MAINLY VFR FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. && .MARINE... AS OF 840 PM SUNDAY...WILL ADD PAMLICO SOUND TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT BEGINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NAM12/GFS AND LOCAL ARW INDICATE THAT AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND. REMAINDER OF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEXT CWF BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF AREA BUOYS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP OVR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS PRES GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD APPROACHING SFC LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL PUSH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THRU THE MARINE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY. POSTFRONTAL N/NE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTN WITH SEAS ALSO DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTN. THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WILL KEEP MARINE AREA IN LIGHT TO OCCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135- 152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SJ NEAR TERM...SJ SHORT TERM...SJ LONG TERM...SJ AVIATION...CTC/BTC MARINE...CTC/BTC