000 FXUS62 KMHX 220747 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 347 AM EDT MON MAR 22 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALL TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...BAND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CROSS THIS MORN AND EARLY AFTN ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN AREA OF STRONG FORCING ASSOC WITH APPROACHING MID/UPR LOW. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHRA DEVELOPING TO THE S/SW AND THESE WILL LIFT NNE AND IMPACT REGION NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIND FIELDS ALOFT IMPRESSIVE AND FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION HOWEVER INSTAB IS LIMITED WITH SFC DEWPTS EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS LIMITED INSTAB WILL LOWER THE CHCS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION GIVEN WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. KEPT PREV FCST OF LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING INLAND WITH LIKELY POPS SHIFTING TOWARD OBX AROUND NOON OR SO. PRECIP SHLD CUTOFF QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM MID MORNING ON. GIVEN WARM START AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATER EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 60S BEACHES WITH FLOW OFF COLD OCEAN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...NO PRECIP EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS DRY SLOT IN WAKE OF FRONT CROSSES. LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST PART OF TUE EXPECT SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA AS UPR LOW MOVES ACROSS. WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH BEST CHCS NRN TIER. AS UPR LOW MOVES E EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH LATER TUE WITH MCLR SKIES LIKELY TUE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY 40 TO 45. COOLER TUE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 60 TO 65. LOOKS LIKE WILL HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TUE NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WED WITH SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPS/THICKNESSES. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK S WED NT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHT COOLING FOR INTO THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S BY FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER YET WEAKER UPPER LVL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE S PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN FRI INTO SAT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BEHIND THE LOW SAT NT INTO SUN. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245AM MON...DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS ON TAP NOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A BROAD SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER KENTUCKY APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOPS AS ATLC MSTR CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SE WINDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE AREA WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP BTWN 10-16Z AS SFC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THROUGH MORNING AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AND UPSTREAM LIGHTNING HAS BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO KEPT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW...BUT DID INCLUDE A CB GROUP AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. ISOLATED IFR WILL BE PSBL IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT MOVE THROUGH. LLWS CRITERIA EXPECTED TO BE MET OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS (WHEN WINDS WILL NOT BE MIXING TO SFC AS WELL) THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO CONTINUED PREVIOUS TAF THINKING ON THAT WITH SE/S JET AROUND 35-45KT JUST ABOVE THE SFC. DEEP MSTR EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTN WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS WILL SHIFT SW AND CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20KT THIS AFTN. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAINLY VFR TUE AFTN THROUGH THU WITH DRY AIR AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING THE REGION. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT BUT ONLY LOOKS TO CREATE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AT THIS POINT. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SUB VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. && .MARINE... AS OF 345AM MON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE SE/S WINDS EXPECTED NOW THROUGH ABOUT 18Z ALL BUT ALBEMARLE SOUND...THEN SHIFT SW AND DIMINISH A BIT FROM SW TO NE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SW BECOMING W FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN MOST WATERS TONIGHT AND ESP TUE AS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS N OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN DIMINISHES INTO WED AS LOW PRES LIFTS WELL NE OF AREA AND HIGH PRES RIDGES ON FROM THE SOUTH. MOST OF THE 00Z MODELS ARE THEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A BRIEF SURGE OF 15-20KT NLY WINDS INTO THU MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF WHICH REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH STALLING THE BOUNDARY OVER OUR NRN/CENTRAL WATERS EARLY THU. CONSIDERING THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...HAVE SHOWED THE WINDS SHIFTING NORTH INTO EARLY THU. REGARDLESS EXPECTED THE POST FRONTAL HIGH TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE SO RETURN FLOW SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THU EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING N/NE WINDS ON FRI...BUT MADE NO CHANGES TO WINDS THIS TIME FRAME JUST YET. SHORT PERIOD SE/S WAVE SYSTEM PICKING UP AS EXPECTED AND CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF 10-12 FT SEAS SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTN...MAINLY BEYOND 10NM. NRN WATERS WILL BE A COUPLE FEET SMALLER WITH LESS EXPOSURE TO THIS FETCH. SEAS COME DOWN A FEW FEET LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY RANGE ESP FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS SW/W FLOW INCREASES AGAIN. SEAS GRADUALLY COME DOWN AOB 4FT BY WED AFTN. SHORT PERIOD N WAVE ENERGY PICKS UP TO 3-5FT ON THU BEHIND BACK DOOR FRONT FOR NRN WATERS...SMALLER SOUTH. SEAS MAY INCREASE AGAIN ON FRI WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BUT STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154- 156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...SJ AVIATION...MW MARINE...MW