000 FXUS62 KMHX 080029 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 730 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009 .SYNOPSIS... PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATE COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IT OFFSHORE. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 730 PM SAT... SFC HIGH IS JUST OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS MOST AREAS. SKIES REMAIN CLR OVER THE REGION AND SHLD CONT THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPCLY SRN CST...LOW MAINLY UPR 30S WITH NRN CST WARMEST...AROUND 50...WHERE BREEZE WILL BE STRONGEST. LOWERED SRN OBX TEMPS A BIT GIVEN CURRENT READINGS AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS. FOR SUN THE RIDGE WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION...AND 850 TEMPS WILL JUMP FROM 6C TODAY TO 12C BY SUN AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH WARMING TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SAT... MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUN...EXCEPT WITH A WARMER START TO THE DAY COULD SEE TEMPS A FEW DEG WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MON NT INTO TUE. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM IDA IN THE GULF WILL START TO STREAM NE INTO THE REGION. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS...BUT BY LATE TUE RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SH WV OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WED...FOLLOWED BY COOLER/DRIER AIR ON BREEZY NW WINDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SAT... THE UPPER LVL TROF AND SFC N FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR WED AND WED NT. AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SW LOOK FOR TEMPS TO GRADUALLY REBOUND INTO LATE WEEK. OVERALL A DRY AND WARM FCST AFT RAIN CLEARS OUT WED...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 730 PM SAT... HIGH PRES JUST OFFSHORE WILL AGAIN KEEP SKIES CLR WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AS USUAL CANT RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT FOG WITH EWN/PGV HAVING BEST CHANCE GIVEN PROXIMITY TO WATER. VFR TO DOMINATE AGAIN SUN WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT OUTSIDE OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. FORECAST GETS TRICKY TUE THROUGH WED WITH MOISTURE FROM TS IDA GETTING CAUGHT UP IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS TUE THROUGH EARLY WED. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W LATE WED AND THU BRINGING STRONG NLY FLOW ACROSS RTES AND VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... AS OF 730 PM SAT... NO CHANGES PLANNED OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES JUST OFFSHORE AND WEAK SFC TRF TO THE W WILL RESULT IN S/SW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGEST N WITH 10 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE S WEAK GRDNT WILL RESULT IN SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS. PREV DISC...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT WHERE A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENTS SLIGHTLY ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT. BY TUE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE MID WEST TOWARD THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISCREPENCIES AMONG MODELS IN HANDLING HOW THE REMNANTS OF TS IDA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. CONTINUE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPING MOST OF THE EFFECT S OF THE REGION ASIDE FROM RELATED MOISTURE THAT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION AND HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLUTION OF TRACKING THE REMNANT LOW ACROSS ERN NC TUE NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING WED AND THU WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AND A PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SJ NEAR TERM...RF/SJ SHORT TERM...SJ LONG TERM...SJ AVIATION...RF/SK MARINE...RF/SK