000 FXUS62 KMHX 220936 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 435 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...HIGH TO THE N IS SLOW TO MOVE E AND THAT HAS DELAYED RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND OUTPUT FROM 00Z MDLS. ISENT LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTN OVER THE AREA AS WEAKENING SRT WAVE APPROACHES WITH CSTL TRF DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE. LOWERED POPS TO CHC INLAND AND S TO NO POP NE SECTION FOR THIS AFTN. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING THRU THE DAY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE MOST AREAS EARLY AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HIGHS WITH 60 TO 65 EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY ..RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA. CSTL FRONT TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF WEAKENING SHORT WAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT ALTHO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR PCPN TO REACH FAR NE AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S CST. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N MON AS MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO VA. HOWEVER EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. FCST QPF REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE MONDAY MORN COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED WITH WET ROADS AND PUDDLING BUT THIS RAINFALL SHUD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD PROBLEMS AS THIS IS A FAIRLY QUICK HITTING EVENT. TRACK OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY DRAW IN SOME OCEAN WARMTH ALLOWING TEMPS ON MONDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DESPITE THE RAIN. FOLLOWED THE NAM SOLUTION MON NIGHT WHICH KEEPS LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND PROB SOME DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPR 40S INLAND TO UPR 50S OBX. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...AGAIN LEANED TOWARD NAM ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR PLENTY CLOUDS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUN. LOWERED MAX TEMPS A CPL DGRS AND NOW EXPECT INLAND AREAS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60. SHUD STILL BE ABLE TO ECK OUT A NICE DAY WED (WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S) BEFORE CLOUDS AND PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA. A SOLN CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. A SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW SHUD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH DECENT PCPN CHCS (ESP NEAR THE COAST) LATER WED NIGHT AND THRU THANKSGIVING. THIS SYSTEM SHUD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS THU NIGHT. EXPECT THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKND TO BE DRY AND COOL AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LCL IFR AT KPGV EARLY THIS MORNING...OTRW VFR WILL PREVAIL ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTN. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. IFR WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MON. LOW PRES WILL DEPART MON NIGHT BUT LOW LVL MSTR LIKELY TO REMAIN...RESULTING IN IFR CIGS PSBLY INTO WED. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THU WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN. && .MARINE... PRES GRAD RELAXING SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER OUTER WATERS FROM HAT S. SEAS REMAINING AROUND 6 FEET THOSE AREAS AS WELL. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH GRAD WILL RELAX TODAY AND MAINLY CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS. GRAD EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM SW. MODELS LIKELY SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE WITH STRENGTH OF LOW...THUS CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST OF SCA WINDS...AND POSTED SCA FOR ALB AND PAM SOUNDS AS WELL. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NRN WATERS MON WHILE WINDS DECREASE REST OF AREA WITH LOW PRES CENTER MOVING ACROSS. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH CAA IN WAKE OF LOW PRES BUT THEN DIMINISH TUE. LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FOR WED-THU DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...COULD HAVE ANOTHER LOW PRES MOVE ALONG COAST THU. BLEND OF SWAN AND WW3 FOR SEAS IN SHORT TERM...THEN WW3 REST OF PERIOD. SCA SEAS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER NRN WATERS UNTIL EARLY TUE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...BTC/RF AVIATION...JBM MARINE...JBM