000 FXUS62 KMFL 081315 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 815 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 CURRENTLY KAMX DOPPLER DETECTS A FEW STRAY SHRA MOVING ACRS THE SW N ATLC AND FLA STRAITS WITH A FEW OCCASIONALLY MOVING ONTO THE EXTREME SE COAST. ALSO...SUSTAINED WINDS AT MID TO UPPER TEENS ALONG E COAST WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR THE MOST PART. 12Z MIA RAOB DETECTED AT 2-3 K FT WINDS 27 TO 30 KTS WHICH WILL MIX DOWNWARD AFTER HEATING BEGINS SO PLAN ON KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE ZFP PACKAGE FOR THE E 1/2 OF S FLA. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS E COAST WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/ ..WIND ADVISORY PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES 8 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING... ..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST... DISCUSSION...HURRICANE IDA IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. NHC FORECASTS IDA TO MOVE NNW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING E-SE WHILE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND DISSIPATING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING IDA WELL WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TIGHT...ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY AREA WIDE TODAY. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH EXPECTED...AND EVEN UP TO 40 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...IT WILL BE WINDY TOO...BUT THINKING WINDS WILL BE A FEW MPH LESS AND ANTICIPATE THE STRONGER GUSTS TO BE LESS FREQUENT. THIS IS WHY THE WIND ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS...BUT DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS THIS WITH OBS TO SEE IF THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. OTHERWISE...AS IDA TRACKS UP THE CENTRAL GULF...SOME 400 MI WEST OF NAPLES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WEST OF THE AREA OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SERVICE AREA DRY WITH JUST A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS TURN SE BY TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING SO CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS GULF COAST BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY CONTINUES SO LOW SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FOR TUE. DUE TO IDA BEING SO FAR TO THE WEST...THE ONLY IMPACTS NOW EXPECTED LOCALLY ARE THE WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVY RAIN/TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN GULF. WHAT'S LEFT OF IDA IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR THU...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...SO WENT WITH DECREASING POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT NOW BOTH THE 08/00Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE WHAT'S LEFT OF IDA FURTHER NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN BOTH MODELS BOMB A LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WOULD HAVE MAJOR MARINE IMPLICATIONS. ECWMF EVEN THEN HAS THIS LOW MAKING A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WHILE WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY. MARINE...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT...SO HAVE NOT ISSUED A GALE WARNING. DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS WHETHER OR NOT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDE TUE BUT THEN BUILD BACK UP BY THU BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THE STRONG LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE LATEST GFS AND ECWMF DEPICT...THEN A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 83 78 83 78 / 10 20 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 82 78 84 79 / 20 20 20 20 MIAMI 83 77 85 77 / 20 20 20 20 NAPLES 87 70 88 71 / 20 20 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ067-FLZ068- FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630- AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657- GMZ676. && $$ LONG TERM...57/DG SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD