000 FXUS64 KMEG 271030 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 430 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009 .DISCUSSION... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WERE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WERE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING MAKING THIS THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON AT MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN THE MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THE NORMALLY WARM SPOT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WAS APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVERS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTER A COLD START...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. A VERY NICE LATE NOVEMBER DAY WEATHERWISE IS FORECAST FOR THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH WARMING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND ONLY SOME HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH MS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WEST OF THE MS RIVER ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND EAST OK BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THINK IT WILL REMAIN RAINFREE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS JUST A SPRINKLE LATE IN THE NIGHT WEST OF THE MS RIVER. DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL TO SOUTHWEST AR BY LATE IN THE DAY. TIERED POPS FROM 60 PERCENT AT JONESBORO TO 30 PERCENT AT TUPELO. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME SATURATED AS A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BY LATE IN THE DAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATTEMPT TO BREAK THE DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD FOR MEMPHIS WILL NOT HAPPEN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ATTM. A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSE FOG THAT NIGHT...BUT THAT IS TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM. ON TUESDAY...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ABOUT WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORECAST MOVING TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY IN PREFERENCE TO OUR CURRENT FORECAST AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS INDICATES RAIN MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. MENTIONED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 40. PREFER TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER UNTIL MODELS BECOME IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. DRIER AIR AND COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH ABOUT THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. JCL && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 7 KTS AND VEER SOUTHWEST FRIDAY. CJC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 58 43 67 50 / 0 0 0 10 MKL 54 36 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 JBR 55 39 63 47 / 0 0 0 10 TUP 56 35 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$