000 FXUS64 KMEG 091142 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 542 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/ DISCUSSION... AS A WEAKENING HURRICANE IDA MAKES LANDFALL LATE THIS EVENING NEAR OR EAST OF MOBILE AL... RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. 00Z MODELS BRING THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RAIN AS FAR WEST AS THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT OR PRECLUDE RAIN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES BORNE FROM MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FORM TX INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES TO THE MIDSOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE MIDATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING... ALLOWING FASTER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. FOR THE MIDSOUTH... CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE PICTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. PWB && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTER CLOUD BANDS FROM HURRICANE IDA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVC AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HURRICANE IDA IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 10/07Z. BELIEVE THAT SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY PUSH INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AROUND 10/12Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR KTUP...KEPT KTUP RAIN FREE ATTM. CCD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 72 56 70 51 / 10 10 10 10 MKL 75 51 70 46 / 0 10 10 10 JBR 71 52 69 47 / 0 10 10 10 TUP 71 55 70 50 / 10 30 20 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$