000 FXUS64 KMEG 062332 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 632 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2009 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... HOT CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. LATEST MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM MODELS WITH NO PREFERENCE FOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AT 315 PM CDT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...COOLER CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE TN RIVER TO MID 80S SOUTH OF TUPELO MS...ABOUT 7 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY RADAR NEAR BOLIVAR TN... SARDIS MS...AND SOUTH OF COFFEEVILLE MS. A COLD FRONT WAS OVER CENTRAL MS...SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH MS THROUGH 8 PM CDT...BUT THESE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THINK SKIES WILL CLEAR NORTH OF I-40...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT SOUTH OF I-40 AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT NE AR AND MO BOOTHEEL...ADDED PATCHY FOG...WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN RURAL VALLEYS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. DOUBT FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MODEL GUIDANCE LOWS SEEMED TO BE ON TRACK...SO DID NOT VARY FROM THEM WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-40 TO 70 AT MEMPHIS TN...ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST 18Z NAM INDICATED ISOLATED CONVECTION SOUTH OF A HELENA AR TO TUPELO MS LINE...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS SINCE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HEATING THE COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TOO QUICKLY...MAINLY 87 TO 91 DEGREES. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THINK DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS INDICATED A FEW MCS/S NORTH OF THE AREA ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT THINK MCS/S WILL MAKE IT SOUTH AND INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM ON THURSDAY AS THE AIR DESTABILIZES AND WITH WEAK CAP OVER THE AREA...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE WORDING OUT OF ZONES WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY... THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY REASONABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL AS PERHAPS SUNDAY. WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH NOT SURE HOW HIGH THE HUMIDITY WILL GET AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY STAY BELOW 70 DEGREES. WITH THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS INDICATING THE RIDGE WEAKENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. LATEST MEXMOS TEMPERATURES APPEARED QUITE REASONABLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MBS && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 08-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH ALMOST 14Z FOR KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AT KTUP SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL RANGE FROM 5-7 KTS ON TUESDAY. KNS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 69 89 70 92 / 10 0 0 10 MKL 62 88 61 91 / 0 0 0 10 JBR 63 89 64 93 / 0 0 0 10 TUP 69 90 67 92 / 10 10 10 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$