000 FGUS74 KMAF 022045 ESFMAF NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317- 329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-042045- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 345 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008 ...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AREA WIDE... SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA DURING APRIL BRINGING RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ENDED THE MONTH WITH 0.51 INCHES OF RAINFALL BRINGING THE YEARLY TOTAL UP TO 0.92 INCHES WHICH IS 1.39 INCHES BELOW CLIMATE AVERAGES. NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FELL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS NOT SUFFICIENT TO IMPROVE THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER ON APRIL 29...INDICATED D2 DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ACCORDING TO THE USDM...D2 DESIGNATION INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS. CONTINUED WARM...DRY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH ALL THE COUNTIES ACROSS THE MIDLAND FORECAST AREA CONTINUING WITH BURN BANS. AMPLE FUELS FROM THE ABNORMALLY WET CONDITIONS LAST YEAR CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEVERAL THOUSANDS OF ACRES HAVE ALREADY BURNED THIS YEAR DUE TO WILDFIRES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA HAS DELAYED GREEN UP...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0 REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. AS MAY 1...THE KBDI SHOWS THAT MUCH OF WEST TEXAS FALLS WITHIN THE 500 TO 700 RANGE. THIS RANGE IS CHARACTERIZED AS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER...EARLY FALL. LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS ACTIVELY CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY. NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED BY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. WHEN THESE CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED OR MET...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS APPROPRIATE. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY THE TEXAS A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS WERE NOTED ACROSS WEST TEXAS...HOT...WINDY DAYS WITHOUT RAIN DRIED OUT PASTURES...LEAVING THEM IN POOR CONDITION. WINTER WHEAT WAS 80 PERCENT TO 90 PERCENT HEADED AND IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION. PRODUCERS FINISHED THEIR FIRST CUTTING OF ALFALFA. WATERMELON PLANTING WAS FINISHED IN GLASSCOCK COUNTY. ROW CROP FARMERS DIVERSIFIED WITH CHILES AND SUNFLOWERS THIS YEAR. SUNFLOWERS WERE 100 PERCENT PLANTED. CORN WAS IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION...WITH 100 PERCENT PLANTED AND EMERGED. OATS WERE 50 PERCENT HEADED AND IN POOR TO FAIR CONDITION. SOYBEANS WERE IN FAIR CONDITION. CLIMATE SUMMARY... ON APRIL 10...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SINCE MARCH 18. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ENDED UP AFFECTING AREAS FARTHER EAST WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE WAS REPORTED IN ECTOR COUNTY. IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR HOWARD...SCURRY...AND MITCHELL COUNTIES DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. OVER OTHER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDLAND FORECAST AREA..A FEW LOCATIONS DID RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HELP SLOW THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ON APRIL 23...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM..DRYLINE...AND COLD FRONT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OCCURRED ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AVERAGED 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE AND SEVERAL TORNADOES WERE RECEIVED. PRECIPITATION RECORDS INDICATE THAT THE AREA HAS GONE WITH BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE DECEMBER AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PRIMARILY IMPACTED AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE AND INCREASED THE RISK FOR WILDLAND FIRES. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS OUTLOOK ISSUED APRIL 17 INDICATES THAT WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH JULY 2008. THESE SIGNALS ARE PRIMARILY A RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LA NINA CONDITIONS OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN. WHILE LA NINA CONDITIONS REMAIN STRONG...FORECASTS INDICATED A WEAKENING LA NINA THROUGH MID SUMMER. THE LATEST U S SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK SHOWS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH JULY. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES THAT TYPICALLY OCCUR DURING LA NINA EPISODES. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... THE APRIL 10 AND APRIL 23 STORM SYSTEMS BROUGHT IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO ONLY A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS IN THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA /HSA/. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND EXTREME EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...MOST LOCATIONS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN SOUTHWARD INTO THE BIG BEND AND MARFA/PRESIDIO REGIONS ONLY RECEIVED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO NOTHING THROUGH THE MONTH OF APRIL. THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST INDICATES INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF MAY 3 THROUGH 7 AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS... POOL 24-HR % CONSERVATION TDY CHG. CAPACITY LAKE JB THOMAS 2218.85 -0.08 11 LAKE COLORADO CITY 2066.38 -0.02 85 CHAMPION CREEK RESERVOIR 2050.73 -0.02 24 NATURAL DAM SALT LAKE 2447.33 +0.01 49 MOSS CREEK LAKE 2330.35 0.00 72 BRANTLEY RES...CARLSBAD 3199.00 0.00 420 LAKE AVALON - 3N CARLSBAD 3173.18 0.13 28 RED BLUFF DAM 2807.64 -2.99 20 NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AREA CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: OUR LOCAL HYDROLOGY WEB PAGE... HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/DROUGHT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/ OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST... HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS AHPS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/ USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/ CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION... HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE MIDLAND TEXAS 79706 PHONE: 432.563.5006 $$ 79