000 FXUS64 KMAF 160859 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008 .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN MEXICO. AS THIS TROUGH EASES SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...THINK THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY FROM THE UPPER TRANS PECOS NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL DWINDLE AS UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION SETTLES SOUTH TOO. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE BIG BEND REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AS THIS OCCURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY LOW...BUT HAVE INCLUDED THE THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER DURANGO IN MEXICO ALSO TRANSLATES INTO THE CWA. SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER THICKNESSES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY... WHILE READINGS REBOUND A LITTLE SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE PECOS...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. ON MONDAY...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL AND KEPT THEM THERE THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. WE COULD SEE 100 DEGREES IN MIDLAND WITH READINGS OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ABOVE 105 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME RECORD HIGHS COULD BE APPROACHED DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 74 52 81 55 / 30 10 10 10 CARLSBAD NM 73 49 81 57 / 20 10 10 10 DRYDEN TX 74 56 80 59 / 40 30 30 20 FORT STOCKTON TX 72 57 77 58 / 30 20 20 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 67 49 70 55 / 30 20 20 10 HOBBS NM 74 48 78 55 / 20 10 10 10 MARFA TX 63 45 70 44 / 40 40 30 20 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 74 54 80 55 / 30 10 10 10 ODESSA TX 75 54 81 58 / 30 10 10 10 WINK TX 78 55 84 58 / 30 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 77/67