000 FXUS64 KMAF 091133 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 533 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009 .DISCUSSION... PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY DUE TO LOW STRATUS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR KMAF AND KHOB. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS. STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THE MOMENT WE WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT SO THEY CAN ASSESS THE THREAT MORE CLOSELY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/ DISCUSSION... UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO AND ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCES OF RIDGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES ASHORE CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY DISLODGING THE RIDGE... CROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY... AND PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT FEW DAYS WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP THROUGH TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING AS TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD CLOSES. HAVE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SPREADING NORTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING EAST OF A CNM TO ALPINE LINE. A FEW PLACES MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG BUT NOT EXPECTING IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING SO HAVE IN FORECAST/GRIDS TIL 15Z. WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT MOISTURE SHOULD STAY PUSHED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 TEMPS TODAY SO HIGHS MAY BE A TWO TO THREE DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONT TODAY/TUESDAY BUT HAVE BACKED OFF THAT. ETA DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF A FRONT TODAY... INSTEAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND WIND BECOMES EASTERLY ACROSS CWA... SORT OF A BACKDOOR FRONT BUT NOT MUCH COOLING WITH IT. ETA/NAM DOES SHOW SOME REINFORCING TUESDAY AS NORTH WIND/BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT WIND QUICKLY RETURNS TO EAST/SOUTHEAST AS NEW LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. AVN/GFS JUST KEEPS THE WIND EASTERLY ON TUESDAY SO MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING WEAK BOUNDARY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO TODAY. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN INTO AREA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING BY THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY AND HAVE DROPPED HIGHS INTO THE 50S NORTH/LOWER 60S SOUTH. THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHERLY WIND. HAVE ALSO ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF AREA. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 78