000
FXUS64 KMAF 232327
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS FOR THE EVENING REVOLVE AROUND COLD FRONT MOVING S THRU
THRU ER NM/W TX PLAINS. WINDS HAVE TURNED NW AT KHOB ALREADY AND
WINDS AT CNM/MAF/INK SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT BY 01Z THEN N-NE THRU
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO NEAR 20KTS BUT
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BY 12Z SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10KT OR LESS.
VERY DRY AIRMASS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
AND WILL BE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING. I AM A BIT
CONCERNED WITH STRONG NORTHEAST GAP WINDS AT GDP TONIGHT BUT MODEL
DATA IS SHOWING IT JUST BELOW CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY TOMORROW MORNING. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS THE COOL AIR IN PLACE
GETS A COUPLE OF REINFORCING SHOTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST AS THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL COOL THURSDAY OFF SLIGHTLY. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. THE GFS IS INDICATING A MORE
OPEN TROUGH WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION AT ITS BASE MOVING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. MOST OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THE
12Z ECMWF STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD MOISTURE WEST BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE AREA. I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE THERE MAY BE WINTRY WEATHER TO
DEAL WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO GARNER MOST
OF THE ATTENTION FOR FUTURE SHIFTS.

HENNIG

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$