306 
FGUS74 KLZK 112030
ESFLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-047- 
049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097- 
099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-1
47-149-122000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2013

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL 
LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING...

BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF 
ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE 
EXPECTED. THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT OVER 
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE 
IN PLACE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP 
ACROSS THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE A STRONG 
UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE 
FRONT FROM MOVING TOO QUICKLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF 
RAINFALL...WITH MANY STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS BEFORE THE 
FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. EXPECTED STORM TOTAL 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE STATE WILL RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR 
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE INCHES 
POSSIBLE. THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE WILL LIKELY SEE LESSER 
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE INITIAL CONCERN...ESPECIALLY NEAR
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND IN AREAS 
WITH POOR DRAINAGE. MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL BE SLOWER TO RISE...BUT 
FLOODING OF THESE LARGER RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

TRIBUTARIES ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS...BLACK...AND LOWER WHITE RIVER 
SYSTEMS WILL BE AT THE GREATEST RISK AND NEED TO BE MONITORED 
CLOSELY. THESE INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE SALINE...PETIT 
JEAN...FOURCHE LAFAVE...LITTLE RED...SPRING...ELEVEN POINT...AND 
CACHE RIVERS.  

THREE MAIN FACTORS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SURFACE RUNOFF AND 
THEREFORE ADD TO THE RISK OF FLOODING DURING THIS EVENT. THE FIRST 
WOULD BE THE DORMANT VEGETATION. THE NEXT WOULD BE THE NEARLY 
SATURATED SOIL FROM THE RECENT SOAKING RAIN EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE 
LAST WOULD BE THE REMNANTS OF THE CHRISTMAS WINTER STORM DEBRIS 
WHICH POSES A THREAT TO CLOG DRAINS AND ADD TO FASTER SURFACE 
RUNOFF. AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER 
SITUATION CLOSELY DUE TO THE IMPACT OF POSSIBLE FLOODING RAINS.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS 
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE 
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION.

$$

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