000
FGUS74 KLZK 131357
ESFLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-047- 
049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097- 
099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-
147-149-141800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

...ANNUAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

...SPRING FLOOD THREAT CLASSIFIED AS AVERAGE FOR THE LITTLE ROCK 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS A  
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WHICH IS WHOLLY LOCATED WITHIN THE STATE OF 
ARKANSAS. IT ENCOMPASSES AN AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE WHITE RIVER AND 
TRIBUTARIES FROM BULL SHOALS DAM DOWNSTREAM...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND 
TRIBUTARIES FROM OZARK LOCK AND DAM DOWNSTREAM...AND THE OUACHITA 
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FROM THE HEADWATERS TO THE UPPER BOUNDARY OF 
THE FELSENTHAL NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE. ALONG WITH THE MAIN STEM OF 
THESE RIVERS...IT ALSO INCLUDES TRIBUTARIES WITH FORECAST LOCATIONS 
ON THE CACHE...BLACK...SPRING...SALINE...PETIT JEAN...FOURCHE 
LAFAVE...LITTLE MISSOURI...BUFFALO...LITTLE RED...MULBERRY...AND 
ELEVEN POINT RIVERS.

...RAINFALL AND SURFACE MOISTURE...

RAINFALL SO FAR THIS YEAR IN ARKANSAS VARIES FROM ABOUT 25 PERCENT 
OF NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL. WETTER AREAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE WESTERN 
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. DRIER AREAS ARE 
GENERALLY IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. 

SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PLENTIFUL...WITH ICE AND SNOW 
MELT AND GENEROUS RAINFALL WITHIN THE LAST WEEK...BUT NOT TO THE 
NEAR SATURATION LEVELS THAT WERE IN PLACE BEFORE LAST YEARS 
FLOODING. WETTER SOILS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING AS LESS RAIN 
IS ABSORBED INTO THE GROUND. THIS ALLOWS MORE RAIN TO RUN OFF INTO 
THE STREAMS. 

...STREAMFLOW AND RESERVOIRS...

STREAMFLOW IS GENERALLY NEAR...TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR. AN ILLUSTRATION CAN BE FOUND VIA THE INTERNET ON THE U.S. 
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY STREAMFLOW MAP. SOME STREAMS IN WEST CENTRAL 
ARKANSAS ARE SHOWING ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT HAVE RECEIVED SOME 
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. 

ALL U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS MAJOR FLOOD CONTROL IMPOUNDMENTS 
ARE NEAR CONSERVATION LEVELS WITH ALMOST 100 PERCENT OF FLOOD 
CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE. 

ALSO...IN MARCH THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IN THE 
LITTLE ROCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN NO REPORTED 
FLASH FLOODING. 

...RAINFALL OUTLOOK...

THE MOST RECENT 30 DAY AND 90 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK MAPS 
OUTLINE EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW...ABOVE...OR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. 
THIS OUTLOOK ENCOMPASSES THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SPRING MONTHS OF 
MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY.

IN ARKANSAS...NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THESE 3 MONTHS OF SPRING 
VARIES BETWEEN 14 AND 18 INCHES. FOR REFERENCE...LAST YEAR IN MARCH 
AND APRIL ALONE...SOME LOCATIONS IN ARKANSAS RECEIVED 25 TO 30 
INCHES OF RAIN. THE RESULT WAS MAJOR FLOODING ALONG SEVERAL RIVERS 
IN THE STATE.   

...CONCLUSION...

OVERALL...THE SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR 
FLOODING. BUT...THIS COULD BE CONSIDERED NORMAL OR AVERAGE FOR THIS 
TIME OF THE YEAR.

THERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATORS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT EXCESSIVE SPRING 
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT RAINFALL AVERAGES FOR 
MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY ARE GENERALLY THE THREE WETTEST MONTHS OF 
THE YEAR...SOME LEVEL OF FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WHEN THESE 
CLIMATIC AVERAGES ARE COMBINED WITH CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE 
LEVELS...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING MUST BE CATEGORIZED AS AT LEAST 
AVERAGE.

THE SPRING POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS A ROUTINE PRODUCT ISSUED IN MARCH. 
SHOULD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BECOME PART OF THE FORECAST AT ANY OTHER 
TIME OF THE YEAR...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED WITH 
EVENT SPECIFIC INFORMATION. ALSO LOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES OR 
FLOOD WATCHES. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO REMAIN SITUATIONALLY AWARE.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS 
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE 
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION.

QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS MAY BE DIRECTED TO...

STEVE BAYS, P.E. 
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR 
501-834-0308
STEVE.BAYS@NOAA.GOV

$$

300