679 FXUS64 KLZK 191513 AAA AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1013 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 .UPDATE... OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. DID ISSUE EARLIER UPDATE TO TAKE FOG OUT OF FORECAST...AND PUSH ANY LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO AFTERNOON PERIOD OVER NORTHERN AR. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN LA...WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MO...WITH A LIGHT WIND SHIFT AND LOWER 60S DEW POINT TEMPS. EXPECT THIS WEAK BOUNDARY TO SAG INTO NORTHERN AR AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUT OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH VERY LIMITED LIFT. AIR MASS REMAINS MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE OVER AR WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...WHILE LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.15 INCHES...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. LI WAS -7 WITH LOW INVERSION THIS MORNING AT 1K TO 2K FT. CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER N LA...WHILE THUNDERSTORM BLOW OFF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL OK FROM CONVECTION. WILL ADJUST A FEW ITEMS IN THE FORECAST WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/ AVIATION...19/12Z TAF CYCLE AREAS OF FOG NOTED ACRS MAINLY SRN AR EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS REPORTED AT THE TAF SITES. WL CONT TO INDC MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDS FOR A FEW HRS THIS MRNG BEFORE MIXING COMMENCES AND FOG DISSIPATES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. LGT WINDS THIS MRNG WL BCM E/SELY AT 5 TO 8 KTS BY THIS AFTN. /44/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE...WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOME OF THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL BE SEEN TOMORROW AS PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NWRN COUNTIES AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE NORTH EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SW OVER SWRN TX. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SW BEGINS EXPANDING INTO AR. TEMPS WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER BY THU AND PERSISTING IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S INTO SAT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S EACH MORNING. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS CONT TO INDC A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU THE PD. HIGH PRES ALOFT WL PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHERN STATES. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURG THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED...DRY CONDS WL CONT TO BE INDCD. TEMPS WL RMN CLOSE TO OR JUST ABV NORMAL LVLS...WITH HIGH IN THE UPR 80S TO MID 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 88 68 91 69 / 20 10 10 10 CAMDEN AR 90 68 92 71 / 10 10 10 10 HARRISON AR 86 65 90 67 / 20 10 20 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 90 69 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 90 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10 MONTICELLO AR 89 69 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 MOUNT IDA AR 89 67 90 70 / 10 10 10 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 66 91 68 / 20 10 20 10 NEWPORT AR 89 69 92 69 / 20 10 10 10 PINE BLUFF AR 89 69 92 70 / 10 10 10 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 90 67 92 70 / 10 10 10 10 SEARCY AR 89 68 92 69 / 20 10 10 10 STUTTGART AR 89 70 92 71 / 10 10 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 59