917 FXUS64 KLZK 030550 AAB AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1250 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS ARKANSAS AS OF 05Z...BUT FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CIGS AROUND 1K FT AGL DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. DEVELOPMENT OF SUCH CIGS WAS NOT NEAR TAF SITES YET SO KEPT TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH MVFR CIGS AFFECTING NORTHERN SITES BY SHORTLY AFTER 08Z...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SITES IN THE 10Z-12Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z THIS MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES AND WINDS PICK UP. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN NWRN ARKANSAS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 8-10KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS...STRONGEST IN THE NORTHWEST. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013/ DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CONVECTION CHANCES EACH PERIOD...WITH THE MOST ON GOING...AND WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. ANY THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...WHICH LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THEN A TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF AR...ESPECIALLY SE...EAST AND NE OF THE LITTLE ROCK AREA. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WAS NOTED AND GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MORNING CONVECTION WAS OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA...EAST OF KLIT...AND SOME CONCERN OF LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS...LOW LYING AREAS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS MATERIALIZING. THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS TI MOVES NE OVER AR. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE OVER AR WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 70 DEGREES...AND 12Z KLZK SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.78 INCHES...FOCUSED IN LOWER 15K FEET. A SOUTH LOW LEVEL JET AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS ALSO HELPING PULL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEX. SOME THINNING AND OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING JUST A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE. SHORT RANGE MODELS ON TRACK WITH FOCUSING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN AR...AS IT LIFTS N TO NE. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LIKELY TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FORECAST. MAIN AREAS WOULD BE CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY BE SEEN. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF AR LATER THIS EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND BE OVER EASTERN AR. TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT WOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER...AND IF ANY WERE LEFT WOULD BE OVER EASTERN AR. DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING OVER ALL OF AR DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVELS. THURSDAY HAS AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY UPPER LIFT...SO MAINLY JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ALSO HOLDS TRUE FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE THROUGH AR. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST...THE GFS...EURO AND CANADIAN CLOSER WITH EACH OTHER. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO GFS/EURO AND CAN BLEND AT THIS TIME. 12Z SATURDAY THE FRONT WOULD BE NEAR NW AR...AT 18Z NEAR KRUE WEST OF KLIT...00Z AT OR JUST EAST OF KLIT...THEN 06Z SUNDAY TO EASTERN AR. A LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND. 12Z SUNDAY MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE STATE. THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A /14 INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW AND ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF AR. ONE ISSUE TO WATCH IS THE WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEX AND ITS FUTURE MOVEMENT. IF IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHERN FLOW AND COME CLOSER TO AR...RAIN AMOUNTS COULD GO MUCH HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AR. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH EDNESDAY A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH RIDGES ON EACH COAST SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST IT WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF ARKANSAS SUNDAY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS COULD BE IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THEN WITH DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S SUNDAY AND IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. 80S WILL RETURN IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 85 66 88 60 / 20 10 10 30 CAMDEN AR 84 68 89 66 / 20 10 10 20 HARRISON AR 85 66 87 63 / 20 10 10 40 HOT SPRINGS AR 84 68 88 65 / 20 10 10 30 LITTLE ROCK AR 86 69 89 63 / 20 10 10 30 MONTICELLO AR 84 68 89 68 / 20 10 10 20 MOUNT IDA AR 85 67 87 60 / 20 10 10 30 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 86 66 88 63 / 20 10 10 40 NEWPORT AR 85 67 88 62 / 20 10 10 30 PINE BLUFF AR 85 67 89 65 / 20 10 10 20 RUSSELLVILLE AR 88 67 89 62 / 20 10 10 40 SEARCY AR 85 65 88 61 / 20 10 10 30 STUTTGART AR 86 68 89 64 / 20 10 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...64