000 FXUS64 KLZK 091622 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1022 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009 .DISCUSSION... TROPICAL STORM IDA CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL ON THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH ECHOS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND AS STATE IN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO MINIMAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS STORM PASSES BY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE STORM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TODAY AND LOWERED FORECASTED HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. TWEAKED DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS LOOKING GOOD. FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST STILL EXPECTED TO WASH OUR BEFORE REACHING THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN TUESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/ AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL IN MISSOURI TONIGHT AND WASH OUT TUESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HURRICANE IDA WAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND WAS HEADED FOR THE ALABAMA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL EAST OF ARKANSAS...WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF IDA KEEPING ANY RAIN TO A MINIMUM. A COLD FRONT WAS POISED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...KEPT MOST AREAS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP...AND IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID SOUTH TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. VERY DRY AIR WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY...BUT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S....MAY STALL OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 70 51 70 46 / 10 10 10 0 CAMDEN AR 70 53 74 52 / 20 10 10 0 HARRISON AR 70 49 69 43 / 10 10 10 0 HOT SPRINGS AR 70 51 74 49 / 10 10 10 0 LITTLE ROCK AR 70 52 73 50 / 10 10 10 0 MONTICELLO AR 70 54 74 52 / 20 10 10 0 MOUNT IDA AR 70 50 74 48 / 10 10 10 0 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 49 68 43 / 10 10 10 0 NEWPORT AR 70 51 70 47 / 10 10 10 0 PINE BLUFF AR 70 53 73 52 / 10 10 10 0 RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 50 72 46 / 10 10 10 0 SEARCY AR 70 52 71 48 / 10 10 10 0 STUTTGART AR 70 53 72 51 / 10 10 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...58