000 FXUS64 KLZK 060213 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 913 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .UPDATE... UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO ADJUST POPS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH. HAVE POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY LINGERING A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH A BIT SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. STILL EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE STATE INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BEFORE STALLING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/ AVIATION... FNTL BNDRY STILL SITUATED ACRS CNTRL AR...WITH SCTD CONVECTION NOTED ALONG IT. EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFT SUNSET THIS EVENING. WL SEE MVFR/IFR CONDS WHERE STORMS AFFECT FCST SITES EARLY IN THE PD. FNT IS FCST TO CONT TO WORKING SLOLY SWD OVERNIGHT INTO MON. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST BEHIND THE FNT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WL BE NOTED LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG...WITH IMPROVING CONDS BY MIDDAY. /44/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/ SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MODELS ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER DETAILS WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG A WEST MEMPHIS TO SEARCY TO MENA LINE ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ABOUND. STRONGEST OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION HAS PREVAILED. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NEW MODEL RUNS MOVE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THROUGH SLOWER VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND FEATURE NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE STATE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA BRIEFLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE FIRST HALF ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING/EARLY MONDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTH. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. PERIOD INITIALIZES WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/NORTHERN ROCKIES ANCHORED BY TROUGHS OVER ONTARIO PROVENCE AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEEPEN WITH TIME AS WESTERN RIDGE SHARPENS UP. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE TH ROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW BUT ONLY OCCASIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DRY. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH WARMING TREND COMMENCING AFTER. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TO START THE LONG TERM...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 66 85 65 91 / 20 10 10 10 CAMDEN AR 72 87 67 93 / 40 20 10 10 HARRISON AR 64 82 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 70 85 66 92 / 30 20 10 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 69 86 66 92 / 30 10 10 10 MONTICELLO AR 72 86 67 92 / 40 20 10 10 MOUNT IDA AR 68 85 66 92 / 30 10 10 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 84 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 NEWPORT AR 66 85 65 91 / 30 10 10 10 PINE BLUFF AR 71 86 67 92 / 40 20 10 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 68 84 65 91 / 20 10 10 10 SEARCY AR 68 85 66 91 / 30 10 10 10 STUTTGART AR 69 86 67 92 / 40 10 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 62