000
FGUS71 KLWX 142250
ESFLWX

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>
042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-151200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STERLING VA
645 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2008

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...NUMBER 6

...AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR RIVER FLOODING...

THIS IS THE 6TH IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD 
POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD 
OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) ACROSS THE STERLING 
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THIS INCLUDES THE POTOMAC AND 
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER DRAINAGE BASINS. 

THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS
SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND ITS 
WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...STREAMFLOW...FUTURE 
PRECIPITATION AND OTHER FACTORS. THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE 
PERIOD THROUGH MARCH 27.

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 
MOISTURE WISE. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE PERIOD DO NOT 
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN OR SNOW. RAIN IS IN THE 
FORECAST FOR SEVERAL PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IN THIS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE 
PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO 
NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME 
OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED 
LOW OR BELOW AVERAGE.

CURRENT FLOODING...

NONE. 

RECENT PRECIPITATION...

PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR THIS YEAR ARE NEAR NORMAL. AT 
WASHINGTONS REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...THE TOTAL SINCE JANUARY 1ST IS 
7.15 INCHES. THE NORMAL IS 7.48 INCHES. 

SNOW COVER...

NONE.

RIVER ICE...

NONE.

STREAMFLOW...

RIVER FLOW IS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO RECENT 
RAINS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...

LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL. 

SOIL MOISTURE...

SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL. 

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD 
THROUGH MARCH 27. 

REPEATING THE CURRENT FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE STERLING HYDROLOGIC 
SERVICE AREA...AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF WINTER/SPRING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE 
ISSUED ON OR ABOUT MARCH 21.

$$
HITCHENS
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON