000
FXUS61 KLWX 080208
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
908 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA
TOMORROW...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

WOW. NOV NGT TIME WX DOESN'T GET TOO MUCH BETTER THAN THIS. IT IS
HARD FOR ME TO THINK OF A TIME WHEN THE NATL COMP RDR HAS BEEN SO
QUIET - NARY AN ECHO FM THE ATLC CST TO THE MIDWEST. SFC ANLYS
REVEALED 90 DEG AIR OVR WRN OK THIS AFTN...AND THE WARMER AIR IS
COMING E. CERTAINLY IT WON'T BE NEARLY THAT WARM...BUT NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE 2ND WK OF NOV NORMS OF THE
U50S FOR HIGHS. ENJOY.

PRVS DCSN...

HIPRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY BUILD
SEWD BUT REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE MID ATLANTIC WX PATTERN. WLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR FROM THE C CONUS INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL INVERSION IN THE
FIRST 3 KFT ABOVE THE GROUND. THIS INVERSION COMBINED WITH
MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER MIN TEMPS COMPARED
TO COOLER SHELTERED VALLEYS. FCST LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 40F IN
LOCATIONS BELOW 1 KFT TO NEAR 50F FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2 KFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH THRU BY THE ERY
IN THE PD. SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT NWLY IN WAKE OF TROUGH BUT WILL
BECOME LIGHT AS HIPRES RIDGE SETTLES OVRHD. WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE...MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MU60S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLIMBING INTO THE L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE 
CWFA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE 
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 
THE GFS IS NOW BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE NUMBERS 
FOR THIS PERIOD...SO WILL OPT TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP THE 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE 
WEEKEND. 

LOOKS LIKE UNTIL THE FROPA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY TEMPS IN THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD REMAIN A BIT HIGHER THAN THE VALLEYS. 
ALSO...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY 
AND EVEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /TNGT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 

VFR CONDITIONS TNGT AND SUN.

NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH 
PRECIPITATION CAN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT BREEZY 
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PLAN IS TO LET SCA EXPIRE AT 02Z. WINDS RELAX LATE THIS EVNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT OVRNGT INTO SUN AS HIPRES SETTLES OVRHD.

SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY IS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND GUST POTENTIAL MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT 
CRITERIA. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT 
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR...WINDS 
ALOFT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES DURING THIS 
PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...JRK/NWL