000 FGUS74 KLUB 071348 ESFLUB TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-279- 303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-080200- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 747 AM CDT FRI MAR 7 2008 ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS... EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND ROLLING PLAINS. FLOODING IN NORTHWEST TEXAS USUALLY OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS AND IS NOT TIED TO SOIL MOISTURE...RESERVOIR STORAGE...OR OTHER PRECURSOR FACTORS. SINCE THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO ALTER THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OF THE AREA...THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS AVERAGE. DISCUSSION... DATA FROM SOIL MOISTURE INSTRUMENTATION ON 40 OF THE TEXAS TECH WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW VARYING SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM WET AT A FEW LOCATIONS ALL THE WAY TO VERY DRY AT OTHERS. IN GENERAL...THE GROUND AT MOST STATIONS IS FAR FROM SATURATED. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR REFLECTS THE VARYING SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. IT INDICATES "NO DROUGHT" IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE..."ABNORMALLY DRY" IN MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...BUT "MODERATE DROUGHT" CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. LAKES AND RESERVOIRS STORAGE RANGE FROM VERY LOW TO NEAR CAPACITY. MACKENZIE LAKE 18 PERCENT WHITE RIVER LAKE 11 PERCENT LAKE ALAN HENRY 96 PERCENT THE 1 TO 3 MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOW THAT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. AGAIN...EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT FLOODING ACROSS THIS REGION IS GENERALLY NOT TIED TO ANY OF THESE PRECURSOR CONDITIONS. IT TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN A FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INDIVIDUAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS...LIKE A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED THIS SPRING. $$ LIPE