000 FXUS64 KLUB 072009 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008 .SHORT TERM... SATELLITE PICTURES TODAY CONFIRM AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN PRODUCING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME OF IT REACHING THE GROUND. ALSO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD BROKEN OUT OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND THE WEST TEXAS MOUNTAINS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES WITH LI'S DOWN TO -6 OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND -4 OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...HAVE SPREAD THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT A LITTLE EASTWARD INTO THE LUBBOCK AREA. ELSEWHERE AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA TONIGHT INTO THE PLAINS STATES TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO HELP SURGE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM... FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN CONTINUE RECENT TRENDS DEVELOPING MOIST MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING IN SOME FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE POPS ARE FAIRLY ROBUST THROUGH THAT PERIOD. AM HESITANT TO BITE ON THESE HIGHER POPS TOO MUCH GIVEN THAT THAT PATTERN IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT RARELY GIVES MUCH IF ANY PRECIPIATION ACROSS THE AREA AND SEEMS TO BE OFTEN OVERDONE BY THE MODELS. STILL 20 TO 30 PCT POPS APPEAR JUSTIFIED ATTM. SHOULD IT PAN OUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN TUESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE WITH A WET PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OVER SRN CA/NV AND DEEP MOIST SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MEX POPS ARE VERY ROBUST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND AM DEFINITELY NOT READY TO BUMP POPS THAT HIGH...BUT AGAIN A MENTION OF 20 TO 30 PCT POPS IS JUSTIFIED ATTM. NEXT WEEKEND HOLDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...PARTICULARLY IN RELATION TO IKE. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO A FCST THAT HOLDS SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY THIS WEEK AS THE PROGGED AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY FOR DAYS WHERE POPS WERE INCREASED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 57 84 55 78 59 / 20 30 20 20 10 TULIA 59 83 56 80 58 / 10 30 20 20 10 PLAINVIEW 61 84 57 80 59 / 10 30 20 20 10 LEVELLAND 61 89 57 77 60 / 20 30 30 30 20 LUBBOCK 63 88 58 79 63 / 20 30 30 20 20 DENVER CITY 61 91 57 76 60 / 30 30 30 30 20 BROWNFIELD 63 90 58 77 62 / 20 30 30 30 20 CHILDRESS 63 90 61 81 62 / 10 30 20 10 10 SPUR 66 91 61 76 63 / 10 30 30 20 20 ASPERMONT 66 92 65 76 66 / 0 30 30 20 20 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 04/07