000
FXUS64 KLUB 091945
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
245 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

.SHORT TERM...
RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...AS TEMPERATURES 
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED 
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT REMAINS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. 

THE UA RIDGE WILL REMAIN RATHER STEADY STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL 
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE-MID LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL LOWER A SMALL 
AMOUNT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...AND ALL GUIDANCE 
ACCORDINGLY DEPICTS DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER RELATIVE TO 
TODAY. THIS WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF...HOWEVER...AND STILL WILL PROMOTE 
A LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD 100+ DEGREE HEAT FRIDAY. IN FACT...WITH A 
STANDING RECORD OF 107 DEGREES AT CHILDRESS FOR THE 10TH...ANOTHER 
RECORD MAY BE WITHIN REACH THERE.

CONCERN REMAINS THAT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET AT A FEW 
LOCATIONS...AND LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WTM TURKEY SITE. HOWEVER...IN 
GENERAL IT APPEARS THAT THE DAYTIME ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES 
OF 105+ DEGREES HAVE THUS FAR GENERALLY BEEN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE 
75+ DEGREE NIGHTTIME MINIMA...AND WITH A DEEPLY MIXED/DRY PBL...SAID 
MINIMA WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN. THESE DIFFERENCES OF PLUS/ 
MINUS A DEGREE HERE AND THERE ARE PROBABLY TRIVIAL WRT PUBLIC 
IMPACTS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER 
STATEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
THIS WARM DUE TO THE LITTLE MOVEMENT NOW EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO STALL OUT WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...FIRST THIS FRIDAY...THEN SOMETIME MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT AND FLOW INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. CHANCES APPEAR LOW AT THE MOMENT THIS FAR OUT THOUGH SO
HAVE KEPT BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE GRIDS. JDV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67 100  67  98  67 /   0   0  10  10  10 
TULIA         71 100  69 100  69 /   0   0  10  10  10 
PLAINVIEW     70 101  70 100  69 /   0   0  10  10  10 
LEVELLAND     71 102  70 100  70 /   0   0   0  10  10 
LUBBOCK       72 103  72 101  71 /   0   0   0  10  10 
DENVER CITY   71 102  70 101  70 /   0   0   0  10  10 
BROWNFIELD    72 102  71 100  72 /   0   0   0  10  10 
CHILDRESS     76 106  77 105  74 /   0   0  10  10  10 
SPUR          74 103  76 102  72 /   0   0   0  10  10 
ASPERMONT     77 104  77 104  75 /   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/01