000 FXUS64 KLUB 091135 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 535 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009 .AVIATION... AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING LONGER AT KCDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT LACK OF CONFIDENCE HAS PRECLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAF. LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO KCDS TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SMALLER CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE AT KLBB. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/ SHORT TERM... A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY BUT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE STALLING OUT TODAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA. LITTLE WILL COME FROM THIS FRONT BESIDES LOW STRATUS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT IS NEARLY ABSENT FROM THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OFF THE CAPROCK TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE. BELIEVE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL BE TOO LITTLE FOR THE INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WILL MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE OFF THE CAPROCK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR TONIGHT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY RETURN WITH AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK AND NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING MORE MOIST. BY TUESDAY MORNING...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS WEST TEXAS. JDV LONG TERM... POTENTIAL WEATHER BOTH EARLY IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND STILL TRENDING A BIT MORE BENIGN...BOOKENDING AN ALREADY FAIRLY CERTAIN MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD OF MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. CONCERNS EARLY WEEK WITH LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE POTENTIALLY LEADING TO STRATUS LAYERS TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AT LEAST IN THE NORTHEAST. WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH BENEATH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE LEAVES SOME DOUBT FOR EXTENSIVE FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY...NOT TO MENTION DEGREE OF COOLING FOR TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED GRIDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TUESDAY WHILE MAINTAINING THE PREVIOUS PATCHY FOG AS THIS IS ALREADY INDICATED AS A LOW COVERAGE EVENT. MID WEEK RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMING WEDNESDAY THOUGH MAY DEAL WITH LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF ROLLING PLAINS THAT MORNING AS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF/NAM RUNS. SOME INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER SHALLOW FRONTAL-LIKE SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE WE ARE MAINTAINING A DRY AND WARMER PERIOD WITH HIGHS BACK WELL INTO THE 70S...AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZES POTENTIALLY EDGING CLOSE TO FIRE DANGER LEVELS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE THE MOST RISKY IMPACT BY NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. STRUGGLE NEXT WEEKEND WITH HOW SPLIT FLOW ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC MAY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH TO MORE OPEN TROF SLIDING THROUGH. EITHER SOLUTION CAMP LOOKING LESS ENERGETIC THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND ALSO POSSIBLY LATER IN THE FORECAST. HAVE SPLIT ANY POSSIBLE COOLING NEXT WEEKEND BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS A RESULT OF MIXING THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WITH ONLY MINOR SHOWER CHANCES UNTIL CLARITY IMPROVES. RMCQUEEN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 63 42 67 40 70 / 20 10 10 0 0 TULIA 65 43 69 43 71 / 20 10 10 0 0 PLAINVIEW 68 45 70 44 72 / 20 10 10 0 0 LEVELLAND 70 45 70 44 71 / 10 10 10 0 0 LUBBOCK 70 46 71 46 72 / 20 10 10 0 0 DENVER CITY 72 44 69 45 70 / 10 10 10 0 0 BROWNFIELD 71 45 70 45 70 / 10 10 10 0 0 CHILDRESS 70 51 71 47 74 / 20 20 10 10 10 SPUR 71 49 71 46 73 / 20 10 10 0 0 ASPERMONT 73 52 72 49 74 / 10 10 10 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026. && $$ 01