000 FXUS64 KLUB 181734 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1134 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TODAY BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008/ AVIATION... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT SPEEDS AROUND 10KT. NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008/ SHORT TERM... POST FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGING HAS SETTLED OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE CURRENT WESTERN U.S. MID/UPPER AIR RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND THE 1035MB SURFACE HIGH NOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL INCREASE TODAY IN THE PLAINS BENEATH FAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE ONSET OF SOUTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE BREEZES TODAY ON THE LLANO ESTACADO. MEANWHILE THE WANING INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CAPROCK. THUS EXPECT THE BETTER MODERATION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURE MAXIMA LIKELY IN THE LOWER 70S. SAID PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BENIGN WEATHER. MODELS SUGGEST THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OVERNIGHT SO TEMPERATURE MINIMA MAY BE RELATIVELY MILD. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH PATCHY/THIN HIGH CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY ADVECT FROM THE BAJA REGION NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LONG TERM... A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACRS WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH PRONOUNCED H85 WARMING WILL PROMOTE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF NOVEMBER. AS USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE WARM SPELL WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE DRY...BUT MAY SEE SOME POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KNOCK BACK HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA. AFTER A COOL FRIDAY...A SLOW WARM-UP SHOULD ENSUE FOR SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE SHALLOW RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THIS SOLN VERIFIES...FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK A FEW DEGS. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT SHOWS THE BEST CONTINUITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. FOR NOW...WEATHER LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT DUE IN LATE SUNDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 71 36 73 33 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 TULIA 69 36 74 35 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 70 37 74 36 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 70 35 75 38 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 70 39 76 38 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 69 36 73 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 69 36 74 39 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 69 40 78 40 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPUR 68 40 77 40 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 67 41 78 42 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 24