000
FXUS64 KLIX 072025
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
325 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.  25

.LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE. THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING MORE TO A CONSENSUS OF PUSHING IKE TOWARD
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK. IKE SHOULD BE
STEERED TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS CUBA THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STATES CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE PAST THE
STORM AND NOT PICK IT UP...THUS LETTING IKE MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...IKE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH
OF LOUISIANA FRIDAY. HOWEVER IKE WOULD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS OUR GULF COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF OUR COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING
AROUND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS.  25

.AVIATION...
MULTI-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVER THE REGION 
AFTER 00Z. WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT PATCHY...LIGHT FOG TO 
DEVELOP BY MORNING. GENERALLY MVFR FOG AT MSY...BTR... GPT...AND
MCB. MCB MAY DEVELOP LIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG BRIEFLY TOMORROW
MORNING PER NGM SOLUTION. DID NOT USE THAT SOLUTION FOR THIS
CYCLE.  47

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA 
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST. THE 
ADVANCE OF HURRICANE IKE FROM CUBA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY 12Z 
WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT TRACK WILL BRING IKE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF 
THE GULF BY THURSDAY AND JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA BY FRIDAY.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  91  70  90 /  10  20  20  30 
BTR  69  92  71  91 /  10  20  10  20 
MSY  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  10  20 
GPT  72  90  72  90 /  10  20  10  20 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$