000 FXUS64 KLIX 082208 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 408 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009 ...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE IDA MOVES INTO THE GULF... .SHORT TERM...OF COURSE THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS PACKAGE IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE HURRICANE IDA. THAT SAID OTHER FEATURES HAVE COME INTO PLAY TO HELP SET UP A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO START TO DETERIORATE EARLY TOMORROW OVER EXTREME SERN LA AND THEN EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND WEST TWRDS THE MS COAST TOMORROW AFTN. THE FCST OF IDA IS STILL QUITE COMPLICATED. CURRENT NHC FCST HAS IDA JUST E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER BY 6Z TUESDAY. THE FEATURES THAT ARE COMING INTO PLAY IS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH STILL CENTERED OVER THE SERN CONUS...IDA IN THE EXTREME S-CNTRL GULF...A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE WRN GULF...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...A MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN TX...AND THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF AND ACROSS FL. HOW ALL OF THESE INTERACT COULD MEAN SIZABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE WINDS AND RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA BUT FROM A COASTAL FLOODING STANDPOINT A SLIGHT SHIFT WONT MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE. SO TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IDA TO MOVE ON A NNW TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS OR SO. AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE IDA...IDA SHOULD START TO SPEED UP...TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NE ALONG WITH STARTING TO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL AND THEN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION IDA SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE CNTRL GULF DUE TO MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INCREASE IN SHEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IDA COULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THAT SAID WE SHOULD STILL SEE TROPICAL STORM TO MINIMUM HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST ESPECIALLY AROUND PLAQUEMINES PARISH BY TOMORROW AFTN. CURRENTLY IDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH ALL OF THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH TO OUR ENE AND IDA HAS AND WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS IDA MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHOULD APPROACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN EXTREME SE LA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVN HRS BUT MORE SO CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ALONG THE MS COAST. AS FOR RAIN NORMALLY THE WEST SIDE IS CONSIDERED THE DRY SIDE BUT DUE TO THE WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE WRN GULF AND APPROACH OF THE MID LVL TROUGH THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. ALSO AS IDA TRANSITIONS WE COULD END UP IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS LEADING TO A SW-NE BAND OF HEAVIER SHRA TOMORROW AFTN/NIGHT. OVERALL AREA WIDE 2-5" OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FROM MCCOMB TO HOUMA. AS IDA MOVES TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE NW AND RAIN SHOULD START TO COME TO AN END LATE TUE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY TUE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE IDA PLEASE REFER TO THE HLS PRODUCT. /CAB/ .LONG TERM...OVERALL NOT TO MANY CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FCST FOR WED THROUGH SUN. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN AND A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PUSH EAST AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHRA BACK TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. /CAB/ && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KMSY AND KGPT AS THE OUTER EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IDA BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION. AT KBTR AND KMCB...WIND EFFECTS WILL BE LESS...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR AND THEN THE IFR RANGE DUE TO RAIN BANDS MOVING THROUGH. AT KMSY AND KGPT...THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. && .MARINE...SAFE TO SAY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN. HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT AND WINDS ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY UP. AS HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NNW AND THEN N WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING BUT MORE SO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND COULD APPROACH 25FT IN THE OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 15 NEAR THE INNER WATERS. THE OTHER BIG ISSUE IS COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE STRONG SFC AND IDA THE WIND GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN. A LARGE FETCH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM THE FL STRAITS AND TWRDS THE COAST. VERY STRONG ERLY FLOW WILL PILE THE WATER UP ALONG EAST FACING SHORES AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE TIDES OF 5-7FT ABV NORMAL. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE HURRICANE WATCHES AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING PLEASE REFER TO THE HLS AND CFW PRODUCTS. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 58 67 57 73 / 40 80 80 20 BTR 61 68 57 74 / 60 90 60 10 MSY 64 71 60 74 / 50 90 70 20 GPT 63 70 58 72 / 30 90 100 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD. HURRICANE WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...AND WASHINGTON. HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD. TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...AND UPPER TERREBONNE. GM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM. MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...AND WALTHALL. TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND PEARL RIVER. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON. HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON. HURRICANE WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON. GM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM. && $$ CAB