000
FGUS74 KLCH 172156
ESFLCH
LAC001-003-009-019-039-053-055-079-099-101-113-115-TXC199-241-245-
351-361-457-182156-


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
456 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008


...ADVANCED HYROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG
RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
HAS IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS) FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS
ENABLES THE NWS TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SABINE RIVER NEAR
DEWEYVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 24 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE DEWEYVILLE FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 23.8 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


      CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
         VALID FOR SEPTEMBER 17TH THROUGH DECEMBER 16TH. 


 LOCATION     FS(FT)   90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
---------------------------------------------------------------------


SABINE RIVER
 BURKEVILLE    43      20.9 21.5 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.8 23.3 26.7 28.5
 BON WEIR      30      20.5 21.4 22.7 23.7 24.1 24.9 26.0 29.9 31.6
 DEWEYVILLE    24      21.4 21.9 22.9 23.4 23.8 24.3 24.7 25.4 26.1
 ORANGE         4       1.5  1.5  1.6  1.6  1.6  1.7  1.8  2.2  2.5
BAYOU ANACOCO
 ROSEPINE      17       6.6  7.6  9.4 11.7 13.0 15.5 17.7 20.2 21.7

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO 
ACCOUNT CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. BY 
PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF 
RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CANBE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LCH (INTERNET 
ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD 
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$