000 FXUS64 KLCH 082157 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 357 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LATEST UPPER AIR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE AREA BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE HURRICANE IDA IS SPINNING NEAR THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST OVER THE AREA. THIS IS PROVIDING LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS ACRS SE TX AND SWRN AND CNTRL LA. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. RADAR INDICATING PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ONSHORE THIS AFTN. && .DISCUSSION... THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE OFFSHORE RAINS TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHWARD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH OVER THE SERN STATES WILL TIGHTEN...WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN IS HURRICANE IDA...WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE WITH WINDS OF NEARLY 100 MPH. IDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT IDA WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A POSSIBLE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE SE LA COAST AND THE FLA/ALA BORDER. THIS WOULD PUT THE GREATEST IMPACTS EAST OF OUR AREA. THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF IDA IS DEPENDENT UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE SE CONUS RIDGE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS TX TONIGHT AND APPROACH LA MONDAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE WINDS...RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. STARTING WITH COASTAL FLOODING...AT THIS TIME THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT WILL REMAIN. LATEST OBS FROM NOS TIDE GAUGES SHOW TIDES RUNNING ABOUT ONE HALF TO ONE FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS...OR BETWEEN 2.5-3.0 FEET. WE ARE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE LOW TIDE CYCLE...WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE EXPECTED BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM TONIGHT. EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO PEAK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH TIDES AROUND 3 TO 3.5 FEET. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST CFW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SE CONUS HIGH AND THE WEST GULF TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HAVE ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG I-10 SOUTHWARD FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. LASTLY...RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FROM BPT TO AEX. APPEARS AS THOUGH MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ACRS AREAS THAT HAVE HAD A REPRIEVE FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS REASSESS FLOOD POTENTIAL. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACRS THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING AND WINDS AND SEAS STAYING UP. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL LAKES AND NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS THE AREA. WATER LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE. WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN LA...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS ON THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE NECHES...SABINE AND CALCASIEU RIVERS IS EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 66 71 59 76 / 70 70 40 10 KBPT 66 72 60 76 / 60 60 30 10 KAEX 61 69 58 73 / 60 60 50 10 KLFT 66 70 60 73 / 80 90 50 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ACADIA-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS- LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN- VERMILION. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CAMERON- VERMILION. TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR JEFFERSON- ORANGE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM-VERMILION BAY. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...24