000 FXUS64 KLCH 070011 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 711 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2009 .UPDATE... A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONES THIS EVENING TO INCREASE POPS ALONG I-10. A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS INTERCEPTED A CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM AFTN HEATING AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE. KLCH VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 2000 FT...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY STORM MOTION...ESSENTIALLY RESULTING IN STORMS TRAINING FROM NORTH BEAUMONT ACRS LAKE CHARLES TOWARD LAFAYETTE...PRODUCING VERY FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND COPIOUS RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY 9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2009/ AVIATION... SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE C-BRZ BOUNDARY THIS EVENING THAT EXTENDS FROM WEST OF BPT TO JUST N OF LCH OVER TO LFT. VSBY...STRONG WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND CEILINGS WILL BE LIMITED. IFR/MVFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE GOING VFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOR AEX A FEW SHOWERS PSBL THRU THE EVE HOURS OTHERWISE...VFR. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2009/ SYNOPSIS... SURFACE FRONT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY AND IS ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVED DOWN FROM THE FRONT HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS LEFT SOME NVA AND DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AND HAS INHIBITED CONVECTION FROM FIRING UP WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. RUA DISCUSSION... SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND STALL ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THEN. LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE- ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AGAIN REDUCE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES. RUA MARINE... A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST ON TUESDAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MID WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. RUA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 77 93 77 94 77 / 70 40 20 30 20 KBPT 77 92 77 95 77 / 70 40 20 30 20 KAEX 74 92 73 94 74 / 40 30 20 30 20 KLFT 76 93 76 93 76 / 70 50 30 30 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$