000 FXUS62 KKEY 081436 AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 940 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 ...STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES. ONLY FIVE DEGREES OF WARMING IS EXPECTED AT MOST TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)... HURRICANE IDA WILL ENTER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. THE SERVICE AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED OUT IN TIME TO INCLUDE THE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT PERIODS. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIR MASS THAT IS OVER THE LOWER KEYS AND THE AIR MASS THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 12Z KMFL SOUNDING DEPICTS A PWAT VALUE OF ONLY 1.11 INCHES. ONE WOULD ASSUME THAT THIS DRIER AIR MASS IS SAGGING OVER THE UPPER KEYS AT THE LEAST. AS A RESULT...THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO SPLIT ZONES AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS... WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. A GALE WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OTHER KEYS WATERS TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON. BE THAT AS IT MAY...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL KEYS WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION... VFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM FL035 TO FL100 WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR FAST MOVING SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINALS SHOULD BE INCREASING LATER TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM 070-090 DEGREES WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE UP TO 10K FEET WILL ALSO BE FROM THE EAST AT SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. PILOTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE ON ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE. THERE IS AN ACTIVE AIRMET IN EFFECT FOR TURBULENCE ACROSS THE KEYS FLIGHT AREA. && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1951...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 61 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON NOVEMBER 8TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 58 YEARS LATER. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLZ076-077-078. GM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...GMZ054-074-075. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER KEYS COASTAL WATERS...GMZ031-032-033-052-053-072-073. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....BWC DATA ACQUISITION.............MP VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST