000 FXUS62 KKEY 080231 AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1025 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008 .DISCUSSION...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 1000 PM THIS EVENING DEPICT A ZONAL TO VERY BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. TO THE SOUTH...A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A PRETTY STRONG MID AND UPPER RIDGE EXTENSION FROM THE CENTER OF THIS ANTICYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. OF COURSE...HURRICANE IKE IS MOVING WESTWARD JUST NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CUBAN ISLAND LANDMASS. AS A RESULT...THE KEYS LIE BENEATH A MOISTENING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 20000 FEET BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND THE HURRICANE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. .IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND ANALYSIS AS OF 1100 PM...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE XXX NORTH...LONGITUDE XXX WEST...INLAND OVER CUBA NEAR ALSO... XXX MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. .CURRENTLY...AS OF 1000 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED ACROSS THE OUTER STRAITS SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS AND WEST OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE RISEN BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE ARE REGISTERING NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS ARE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH. .SHORT TERM FORECASTS...OBVIOUSLY...HURRICANE IKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CUBAN COAST CLOSE TO THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. THIS TRACK BRINGS THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CUBAN LANDMASS. THE STORM IS FORECAST BY NHC TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SPINE OF CUBA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE....BUT AS THE MASS FIELDS EXPAND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALLER POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE CONDITIONS IN THE KEYS BY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...ANY SMALL DEVIATIONS NORTH OR EVEN SOUTH OF THE FORECASTED TRACK WILL MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT METEOROLOGICAL IMPACTS. ALL INDIVIDUALS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER UPDATES TO IKE. ALSO AND ONCE AGAIN...KEEP IN MIND THAT THE INTENSITY...SIZE...AND STRUCTURE OF IKE MAY BE AFFECTED DRASTICALLY AFFECTED BY DEVIATIONS NORTHWARD OR SOUTHWARD OF THIS TRACK. OVERNIGHT...CURRENT COVERAGE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ISOLATED. ALSO...AS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CONSOLIDATES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED...DESPITE THE CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FRESHEN OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS WILL IMPACT ALL WATERS AND THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS PEAKS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DECENT IN THE MORNING FOR LAST MINUTE PREPARATIONS...FOLLOWED BY INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL NO WARNINGS ISSUED ON THE EVENING UPDATE. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVERNIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE FRESH WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG WINDS AS THEY STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK...THE PEAK OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SERVICE AREA. BUT...THE ENTIRE SERVICE AREA REMAINS IN A HURRICANE WATCH. OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...BOATERS ALONG THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES EARLY SO AS TO COMPLETELY SECURE THEIR VESSELS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DETERIORATING WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR GENERAL AVIATION THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IN THEIR VICINITY IS QUITE LOW...BUT WE WILL ISSUE A TIMELY AMENDMENT IF THUNDER THREATENS. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FLZ076-077-078. GM...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS...FUTTERMAN/JACOBSON AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....COTTRILL/DFM DATA ACQUISITION......ROSS COORD/MEDIA/HLS.......JACOBSON/RIZZO VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST