000 FXCA62 TJSJ 061837 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 237 PM AST FRI NOV 6 2009 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A POLAR TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MOST PART OF SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THUS... ONLY THE TYPICAL NOVEMBER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR VERY SOON AS LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFY...A WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FA...BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND LASTING UNTIL AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. A NEW SWELL EVENT FROM THE NORTH WILL ALSO REACH OUR COASTLINES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SCA CRITERIA AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES. && .AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND POSSIBLE ACROSS TJPS UNTIL 06/22Z. AFTER 06/22Z...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES. VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES THIS EVENING. && .MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SWELL EVENT REACH THE EXPOSDED ATLANTIC WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH SCA CRITERIA AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS LIKELY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 76 86 75 85 / 30 20 30 40 STT 77 87 77 86 / 20 20 20 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. && $$ 10/72