000 FXUS62 KJAX 041848 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 245 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUES)...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY...BUT HOT...4TH OF JULY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SE ZONES WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISION AND WILL KEEP 20% POPS THERE THROUGH EARLY EVE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND HELP PRECLUDE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL BUT MAY SEE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS (STRATUS) LATER TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF IT BY LATE IN THE DAY AND HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS POPS GOING FOR THE FAR NW ZONES. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS POPS GOING FOR EXTREME SE ZONES WHERE SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL PRODUCE A FEW STORMS THERE. UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP MON-TUES AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH POPS AREA WIDE. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES INCLUDE OLD SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE AREA AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH ISOLD CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLC SBRZ BOUNDARY HAVE POSTED JUST VCTS IN TAF SITES AS BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. WITH SWLY LLVL FLOW RETURNING TONIGHT EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO IMPACT NERN FL WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KGNV/KVQQ...BUT HAVE KEPT THEM SCTD AT OTHER TAF SITES. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES THROUGH SUNDAY AS S/SW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF...BUT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SERN U.S. EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL PUSH SW WINDS INTO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE MARINE ZONES MORE FREQUENTLY. && .FIRE WEATHER... LATEST OBSERVATIONS STILL SUPPORT 3-5 HR DURATIONS BELOW 35 PERCENT RH ACRS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAVE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE. NO FURTHER RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 95 73 89 / 0 30 40 60 SSI 75 92 76 88 / 0 20 30 60 JAX 72 95 75 89 / 10 20 30 60 SGJ 75 92 75 89 / 20 20 20 50 GNV 70 93 73 89 / 10 20 20 50 OCF 71 94 73 90 / 20 20 20 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COLUMBIA- HAMILTON-SUWANNEE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ PP/JH/PK