258 FXUS62 KJAX 040802 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 302 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013 .SHORT TERM... TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 20S IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE HARD FREEZE SPREADS OVER THE INTERIOR. WINDS ARE MOSTLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD/FROSTY START...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY AFTN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS SOME CIRRUS INVADES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SWLY IN THE AFTN AS HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FL PENINSULA. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TOWARD SOUTH FL/BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT SLY FLOW TONIGHT HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT STILL MAY HAVE PATCHY FROST INLAND WHERE TEMPS WILL DIP 35-40 DEG RANGE. COASTAL ZONES WILL HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. TUE/TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NW OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A BREEZY SW FLOW WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH BY TUE AFTN. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ROLLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION LATE TUE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SE GA. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTH TUE NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER SE GA TUE EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DWINDLING TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE FL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 OVER SE GA AND LOW 70S FOR NE FL. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING SKIES OVER SE GA. WILL LEAN TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE WHICH IS 20-25 DEG RANGE FOR SE GA TO THE MID 50S OVER MARION COUNTY. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)... WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...FROM DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD DUE TO STRONG WEST WINDS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS THE DEEP LOW TRACKS NE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOL AND DRY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL BUT NO FREEZES ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AS THE DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY WITH A NE FLOW ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND DUE TO MID/UPPER RIDGING IN THE AREA. TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE DEEP LOW WELL OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULTING IN ROUGH SURF AND AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE COAST. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. && .MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS ONGOING OFFSHORE NE FL DUE TO TIGHT GRADIENT OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA OFFSHORE TIL 10 AM. WILL CANCEL SCA NEAR SHORE AS WINDS AT ALL COASTAL SITES...INCLUDING THE ST AUGUSTINE BCH PIER...ARE WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE BY LATE TUES AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS IS EXPECTED BY TUES NIGHT AND WED...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL LEGS AND A POSSIBLE GALE EVENT OFFSHORE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE ON THURS...AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS WEEK. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. AN ELEVATED RISK IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND ALLOW FIRE FIGHTERS TO CONTAIN EXISTING WILDFIRES IN THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW...IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTN. HOWEVER THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES DRY AGAIN WED-SAT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 59 39 70 41 / 0 0 20 40 SSI 54 45 66 46 / 0 0 0 40 JAX 61 39 73 46 / 0 0 0 30 SGJ 57 43 72 52 / 0 0 0 30 GNV 62 37 74 49 / 0 0 0 30 OCF 64 39 75 54 / 0 0 0 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA- BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-UNION. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-DUVAL- FLAGLER-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS. GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR APPLING- ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN- COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ TRABERT/PETERSON