000
FXUS62 KJAX 230206
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
906 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION AND ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS HAVE SHIFTED S AND 
E OF THE AREA. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEAKENING LOW 
OVER THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE ALONG THE FL/GA LINE AND INTO THE 
ATLANTIC. TSTMS OCCURRING NEAR THE GULF STREAM WELL E OF THE GA 
COASTLINE. WILL SCALE BACK POPS TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN 
THRU THE MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL 
BE NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NEAR RECENT RAIN AREAS. 
SINCE MOST RAIN OCCURRED OVER N AND S ZONES AND FRONT IS STALLED IN 
THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA...PATCHES TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE 
ALMOST AREA-WIDE. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THICK CLOUDINESS. 
HOWEVER...VERY LOW CIGS OVER SE GA MAY CONTINUE TO LOWER AND BECOME 
SFC BASED. OTHER THAN POP ADJUSTMENTS...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON 
TRACK. 

&&

.AVIATION...
CHALLENGING FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH TWO VERY DIFFERENT TYPES OF
CONDITIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED
NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY VFR SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NE FLORIDA
WITH ONLY PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS NOTED NEAR GNV. 

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG. THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EITHER LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OR PATCHY DENSE FOG OR
PERHAPS A COMBINATION OF BOTH. POOR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS NOTED ACROSS SE GA AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
NE FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. COMBINED SEAS HAVE CLIMBED TO 6 FT AT
BUOY 41012 AND A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. THE EVENING PACKAGE WILL BE
BROKEN INTO 4 PARTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  50  67  48  67 /  30   0   0   0 
SSI  58  71  54  66 /  40   0   0  10 
JAX  59  75  54  70 /  40  10  10  20 
SGJ  64  76  60  69 /  40  10  10  30 
GNV  60  76  55  72 /  30  10  10  20 
OCF  61  78  57  75 /  30  10  10  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CARROLL/SHULER/KEEGAN