462 FXUS62 KJAX 030810 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 410 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT)... MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD BACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. WILL HAVE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AND OUT FROM THE GULF...IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST 97L MOVING NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NHC GIVES THIS SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODELS ARE INDICATING MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF DURING THE SHORT TERM AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE SHORT TERM. AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE INDICATED THIS. WILL HAVE A CONTINUATION OF WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS (ESPECIALLY INLAND) BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT AND WILL GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DURING THE DAY AND WARMER AT NIGHT THAN GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP MINIMIZE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT BUT PCPN CHANCES WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN 15-20%. HIGHS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH EAST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH. SUN/MON...STILL COMPLEX SCENARIO AS MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SOME SORT OF TROPICAL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN GOMEX SUNDAY THAT GETS PICKED UP BY SLOW MOVING FRONT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE SERN U.S. ON MONDAY. WEATHER PRED CENTER LATEST QPF GRAPHICS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 7 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE STILL AN INCH OR LESS...SO FLOOD THREAT STILL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND INLD SE GA. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE QUADRANT FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IF STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM DEVELOPS. MAIN IMPACTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME. TUE...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST BECOMES LOWER AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND THIS WILL PUSH TRAILING BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND HAVE KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST. WED/THU...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION AND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OLD FRONTAL ZONE EXPECT A 20-30% CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL COUNTIES. && .AVIATION... MVFR VSBYS IMPACTING THE KVQQ TAF SITE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE WILL BE MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND MORE PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE WATERS THRU SAT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUN-MON WHILE INVEST 97L (POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE) MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BY SUN. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEKEND AND MAY HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING SWELL AND ONSHORE FLOW WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY. WILL GO WITH A LOW RISK FOR FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE SOMEWHAT BUT MAY NEED TO GO WITH A MODERATE RISK AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 86 62 86 65 / 10 10 10 10 SSI 82 68 83 72 / 0 10 10 10 JAX 84 66 85 69 / 10 10 10 10 SGJ 82 72 83 73 / 10 10 10 10 GNV 86 67 87 68 / 10 10 10 10 OCF 87 69 87 69 / 10 10 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ PP/JH