000 FXUS61 KILN 101119 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 619 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABE FETCH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A PIVOT POINT OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WAS NOTED NOT TOO LONG AGO IN RADAR IMAGE AND WILL BECOME MORE N-S ORIENTED OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND NW FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE FLOW TURNS NW...LAKE EFFECT BANDS OF SNOW WILL CROSS THROUGH CONNERSVILLE AND BROOKVILLE INDIANA...THROUGH CINCINNATI...AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER SOUTHEAST THROUGH RIPLEY AND MAYSVILLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHEN THE WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE DROPPED. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TODAY AND I WAS NOT GOING TO DROP A WATCH WITH ONGOING SNOW AND BLUSTERY CONDITONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH TURNS OFF BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THORUGH THURSDAY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM SW- NE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACK UNDER THE HIGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. TOOK THE CHANCE FOR MEAUSRABLE SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES ON THURSDAY IN NW FLOW. DID NOT PUT THIS IN THE FORECAST ATTM AS MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DECREASE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 20S WITH FRESH SNOW COVER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. KEPT THE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE TREND THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THE FA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FA FOR NOW WITH THE GFS THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE. MODELS START TO DIVERGE FOR THE LATE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS FAR MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER. HAVE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR NOW. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SECONDARY TROF HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH THRU INDIANA THIS MORNING. IT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER AND SHOULD REACH THE WRN TAFS AROUND 13Z. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30KT CAUSING MORE BLSN. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SFC AND H5 LOWS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...PULLING MOISTURE OFF LAKE MI. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AFFECT THE TAFS THRU THE DAY. BY LATE AFTN...H5 FLOW BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC...SO EXPECT SHSN TO BEGINS TO TAPER OFF...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES. THE WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFT 00Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050- 058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES