000 FXUS61 KILN 240601 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 101 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN DEEPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE FA...THAT HAD BEEN VFR SAW CIGS DROP TO IFR AS THE COLUMN COOLED. THIS HAS SLOWED THE NE PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING. EXPECT THE ST TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL. LOOKS MORE LIKE A ST SITUATION THAN A DENSE FOG ONE TONIGHT. SO WENT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES...EXCEPT IN THE W WHERE IT CLEARED. WENT BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE. TD ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE E. WITH THE CLOUDS...DONT SEE THEM FALLING A LOT OVER NIGHT. RAISED TEMPS IN THE E 4 TO 5 DEGREES. SPOTS IN THE W HAVE COOLED OFF DUE TO THE CLEARING...SO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT THERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STAY BEHIND TO KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. DEEPENING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST WILL LEAD TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN BY 12Z WEDS AND WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDS MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO TRENDED TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDS NIGHT...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING AREA WIDE TUES NIGHT AND EARLY WEDS...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING. LINGERING ELEVATED ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS EVENING. DEEPER SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST WEDS NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE CWA BY 12Z THURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...SO KEPT POPS LIMITED TO LOW-END CHANCE THROUGH 12Z THURS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC POSITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. HAVE MAINLY RELIED ON A 00Z/12Z GFS BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DIGGING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE UPR LVL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TREK EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...IT WILL UNDERGO SOME DEEPENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO COOL AS WELL AS ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. WRAP AROUND/LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING ALL SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME DIURNAL HEATING ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE BACK TO RAIN DURING FRIDAY AFTN. PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN NATURE. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND A FAIRLY WARM GROUND FOR LATE NOVEMBER. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ATTM. AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP FROM THE NW TOWARD OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MONDAY...HAVE KEPT CONTINUITY BY ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK AS DEPICTED BY THEIR RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE CINCINNATI AREA WHERE A HIGHER DECK IS ALREADY IN PLACE. NONETHELESS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THERE WILL ALSO BE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AREA WIDE AS LOW AS IFR. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT QUICKER THAN CEILINGS IN THE MORNING ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TO AROUND 18Z AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK AFTER THAN TIME. A VFR DECK WILL SPREAD BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY...AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE... THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAWBLITZEL NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...HAWBLITZEL LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...