270 FGUS72 KILM 051221 ESFILM NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089- 191230- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 821 AM EDT FRI APR 5 2013 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... RAINFALL SO FAR THIS YEAR HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AMOUNTING TO APPROXIMATELY 80 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THE AREA IS IN THE ABNORMALLY DRY CLASSIFICATION WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE DROUGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA. APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THE AREA IS NOT IN A DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION...SOUTH OF A WILMINGTON TO CONWAY TO FLORENCE LINE. THE TABLE BELOW SUMMARIZES PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT AREA OBSERVATION SITES THROUGH YESTERDAY...APRIL 4TH...FOR VARIOUS TIME SCALES. WILMINGTON NC TOTAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL VALUE FROM OF NORMAL NORMAL ONE MONTH (30 DAYS) 3.37 3.95 -0.58 85% TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS) 8.58 7.87 0.71 109% THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS) 10.48 11.54 -1.06 91% SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS) 23.09 21.78 1.31 106% ONE YEAR 53.66 57.71 -4.05 93% FIFTEEN MONTHS 61.10 68.57 -7.47 89% LUMBERTON NC TOTAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL VALUE FROM OF NORMAL NORMAL ONE MONTH (30 DAYS) 3.00 3.23 -0.23 93% TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS) 7.10 6.45 0.65 110% THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS) 8.28 9.32 -1.04 89% SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS) 15.08 17.21 -2.13 88% ONE YEAR 44.87 43.62 1.25 103% FIFTEEN MONTHS 53.03 52.43 0.60 101% NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC TOTAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL VALUE FROM OF NORMAL NORMAL ONE MONTH (30 DAYS) 4.23 3.81 0.42 111% TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS) 8.74 7.50 1.24 117% THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS) 9.33 11.03 -1.70 85% SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS) 16.82 21.01 -4.19 80% ONE YEAR 42.08 52.12 -10.04 81% FIFTEEN MONTHS 48.65 62.48 -13.83 78% FLORENCE SC TOTAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL VALUE FROM OF NORMAL NORMAL ONE MONTH (30 DAYS) 3.56 3.15 0.41 113% TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS) 8.59 6.31 2.28 136% THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS) 9.91 9.43 0.48 105% SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS) 17.01 17.91 -0.90 95% ONE YEAR 42.79 43.00 -0.21 100% FIFTEEN MONTHS 51.61 51.81 -0.20 100% SEVEN DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS RUNOFF FROM RAIN YESTERDAY FILTERS INTO THE RIVERS. UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. THE EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF APRIL CALLS FOR A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WHILE THE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL THROUGH JUNE CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ABOVE FACTORS...THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF RIVER FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF SPRING. THIS IS THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE IN WILMINGTON FOR THIS SEASON. OUTLOOKS WILL RESUME IN JANUARY 2014. $$ RAN