000 FXUS64 KHGX 080342 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 941 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009 .UPDATE... LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE ENTRY OF TD (OR WEAK HURRICANE?) IDA INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF (BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA) WILL KEEP THE OFFSHORE EAST-TO-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT/MID-HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING ONSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. PER THESE ENHANCED EASTERLIES...AND UPPER TEXAS TIDES AT OR NEAR HIGH TIDE...LEVELS ARE BETWEEN 2.5 TO 3.5 FEET GOING INTO THE 10 PM HOUR. THUS...EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING UP THE COAST FROM FREEPORT THAT THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT AND WATCH HAS COVERED THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO DIFFULENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS PER DECENT SPREADING DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN TX UPPER TROUGH/EASTERN TEXAS FALLING IN FAVORABLE RRQ BY MID-DAY TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERIOR STORM INITIATION NOR COVERAGE...MAIN THREAT FOR SUNDAY STORMS (HIGHER QPF) PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN/UPPER TX COASTAL REGIONS/NW GULF DUE TO THIS AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN GULF DISTURBANCE AND VICINITY OF IDA. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/ AVIATION... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING LIGHTER WINDS INLAND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWING CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT...ESP IAH NWD WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT OR BEFORE SUNRISE. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT SUN MORNING TO VFR CATEGORY INLAND DURING LATE MORNING OR ERLY AFTN. INCREASING MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME -RA/SHRA CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THE AFTN. 47 && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/ PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AS SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS WILL BE MORE EVIDENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED IN CWFHGX HIGHEST TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. TIDE LEVELS BETWEEN 3.8 AND 4.6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND THE WEST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND. POPS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCES WITH CHANCES LOWERING NORTHWESTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS LOUISIANA/ALABAMA MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY DIMINISHING OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. ASIDE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING OUR REGION SUNDAY THE NORTHWEST ZONES WILL HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS HIGHEST PWATS WILL BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF CWFA. IT WILL BE DRY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING. WE DID NOT CHANGE THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS PACKAGE WHICH INCLUDES NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THUS LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. 37 MARINE... WINDS ON THE INCREASE AND WITH CURRENT SET OF MODELS AND FORECAST WINDS HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS FROM BRAZORIA TO GALVESTON TO CHAMBERS COUNTY. TIDES RUNNING 0.7-1.3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALREADY AND WILL PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER ENE WINDS OVER THE COAST. BOLIVAR THE MOST IMPACTED...ELSEWHERE PLENTY OF BEACH FLOODING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 76 60 77 58 / 10 30 20 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 60 76 62 77 59 / 10 40 40 20 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 65 74 63 / 10 50 50 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...31/47