000 FXUS64 KHGX 160849 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 349 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008 .DISCUSSION... REMNANTS OF S TX CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY APPROACHING SW ZONES. SAT/RADAR PIX SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION FLARING UP JUST BEYOND 60NM OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE ISO/SCT SHRA GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10 THIS MORNING AND MORE WIDESPREAD OUT IN THE GULF. H5 TROF STILL REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND THERE'S HINTS THERE COULD BE ADDITION MCS'S DEVELOP AS S/W'S KICK OUT IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...BUT TROF ORIENTATION WILL FAVOR PRECIP REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF SE TX. DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES IN. SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS...ESP SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SW/SSW SFC WINDS MOSTLY PREVAILING. FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS THE ROCKIES & SRN PLAINS DURING THE 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME LOWISH POPS IN FUTURE PACKAGES FOR STREAMER TYPE PRECIP...BUT LOOKS LIKE STRONG CAP AND LACK OF FOCUS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES PRETTY SLIM. 47 && .MARINE... ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BEGINS ITS SLOW TRACK ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS SHORTLY. WILL HAVE TO RAISE SCEC FLAGS FOR THE STORMS AND THE INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF ALL THIS ACTIVITY. THESE N/NELY WINDS EXPECTED DROP OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...THEN SHIFT TO THE E/SE BY SAT. AS THE HIGH SINKS WELL INTO THE GULF...WESTER- LY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY SUN. AN ONSHORE FLOW PROGGED BY LATE MON AS THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN OFF THE NRN PLAINS. THE ENSUING LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. BUT WE COULD BE BACK INTO ADVISORY MODE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT COMES INTO PLAY. 41 && .AVIATION... NEXT SET OF TAFS SHOULD BE RATHER TRICKY AS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST CONVEC- TION IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE...CURRENT RADAR LOOPS WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST A DECENT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE FOR THE CWA LATER THIS MOR- NING. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AS THE OBS CURRENTLY UNDER/NEAR THE GUN ARE INDICATING AS SUCH. WILL ALSO KEEP WITH THE IDEA THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10. EXPECTING MOST/ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE WELL EAST OF US BY THIS AFTN BUT CLEAR SKIES MAY NOT BE IN THE PICTURE UNTIL TONIGHT GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 54 83 60 88 / 10 10 10 10 0 HOUSTON (IAH) 80 58 83 62 88 / 10 10 10 10 0 GALVESTON (GLS) 78 68 79 70 85 / 30 10 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION BAYS AND GULF 0-60 NM. GM...NONE. && $$