000 FXUS64 KHGX 060006 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 706 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .UPDATE... UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY. && .DISCUSSION... HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TOMORROW SO THE ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. MAIN THREATS NOW ARE POSSIBLE ISO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN FEW COUNTIES IN SE TX. COUPLE OF ISO STORMS IN TRINITY CO BUT DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REACH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL KEEP WATCH GOING UNTIL OUTFLOW HAS CLEARED THE AREA WHICH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD END THE SEVERE THREAT. 39/OVERPECK && .CLIMATE... MORE RECORD HEAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IT IS A RARE DAY IN SUMMER WHEN HOBBY AIRPORT HIGH TEMPS EXCEED IAH. BUT TODAY HOBBY REACHED 103 DEGREES (IAH WAS 102) WHICH TIES FOR THE FIFTH WARMEST JULY TEMPERATURE AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE AND EARLIEST DATE TO REACH 103 DEGREES. HOBBY HAS ALREADY HAD FIVE 100 DEGREE DAYS THIS SUMMER. IAH ALSO SET A NEW RECORD AT 102 DEGREES. IAH HAS ALREADY HAD ELEVEN 100 DEGREE DAYS THIS SUMMER. HERE ARE THE MOST 100 DEGREE DAYS IN A YEAR FOR HOUSTON: 1. 32 DAYS IN 1980 2. 24 DAYS IN 1998 3. 20 DAYS IN 2000 4. 19 DAYS IN 1902 5. 16 DAYS IN 1909 6. 14 DAYS IN 1993 7. 13 DAYS IN 1907 8. 11 DAYS AND COUNTING IN 2009 9. 10 DAYS IN 1999 10. 9 DAYS IN 1906 * PARTIAL YEAR WITH MISSING DATA THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FAILED TO EXCEED 95 DEGREES AT IAH WAS JUNE 8TH. AND THE DROUGHT CONTINUES. ISSUED A NEW DGTHGX (DROUGHT STATEMENT) LAST NIGHT. MANY CLIMATE AND SUPPLEMENTAL SITES HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED SINCE MAY 1ST. FOLKS...IT IS AS DRY AS I HAVE EVER SEEN IT HERE. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/ UPDATE... SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. DISCUSSION... CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MEANDERING SOUTH. THE NAM12 DID A GREAT JOB YESTERDAY SO WILL FOLLOW IT'S LEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. SRONG WINDS FEEDING INTO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS AND WELCOME RAIN...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/ UPDATE... AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 552. DISCUSSION... ISO SEVERE THREAT FOR NORTHERN FEW CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAS PROMPTED A WATCH THROUGH 3Z. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DOWNBURST/STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF CROCKETT TO LUFKIN BUT POSSIBLE FOR AN ISO CELL TO GO SEVERE JUST SOUTH OF THERE. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST TOWARDS THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SE TX. 39/OVERPECK PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/ DISCUSSION... OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE MOST RECENT SPC OUTLOOK WHICH HAS THE NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THIS IS PROBAB- LY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT AFTN HEATING AND THE PROXIM- ITY OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY/POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS. WILL LIKELY ADD THE MENTION OF SVR FOR THESE AREAS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE THINKING OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES (AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS) FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS STILL PUSHING A RATHER WELL DEFINED S/WV INTO THE AREA TONIGHT/MON AS IT DRAGS A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT. AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...SO FAR SO GOOD. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH PROGS OF ANOTHER S/W IS THEN ON THE BOOKS FOR TUES. THEREAFTER...LONG RANGE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT. ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST BUT THE GFS DOES SEEM TO REBUILD THE HIGH MORE ATOP OUR AREA. TRUTH BE TOLD...WOULD PREFER THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH GIVES SE TX SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHAN- CES (VIA POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE N/NELY FLOW ALOFT). THE GFS (ON THE OTHER HAND) WOULD MEAN A RETURN TO THE HOT AND RE- LATIVELY POP FREE WX OF LATE. BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID WILL LIKELY LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE PATTERN. 41 MARINE... PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...HAVE POSTED CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT ANTICIPATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO 10-15 KTS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. 35 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 93 75 95 75 / 30 30 20 30 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 78 93 75 94 75 / 20 30 20 30 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 81 90 80 90 80 / 10 30 20 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...39 MARINE/AVIATION...43