000 FXUS64 KHGX 221719 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1119 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009 .DISCUSSION... LOW STRATUS AND FOG WHICH DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY BURNED OFF. SFC HIGH ALONG WITH SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS SE TX WILL RESULT IN A GREAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST. 35 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/ UPDATE... UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... THIS PACKAGE'S MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A DENSE BLANKET OF MONDAY MORNING FOG...OR NOT. ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARDS AREAWIDE FOG FORMATION DURING THE 23/08Z-14Z WINDOW. NEGATIVES ARE THAT WE ARE SLOW TO ACHIEVE SATURATION THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW MORE NON-URBAN SITES ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO CRATER AS WE HEAD INTO SUNRISE. THE OTHER IS NUMERICAL MODELING...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS JUST NOT BEING RESOLVED BY THE LATEST RUNS. HEAVIER POSITIVES ARE A SATURATED GROUND...CALM WIND...AND THE BULK OF DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. AS EARLY MONDAY AM TEMPS LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S...DEPRESSIONS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO (OR AT) ZERO PER MID-UPPER 40 DEW POINTS. AMPLE AVAILABLE LL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DENSE FOG SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...WITH LITTLE TO NO ANTICIPATED CHANGE IN THE 24 HR WEATHER PATTERN...TAFS ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE PHILOSOPHY OF DENSE FOG FORMATION DURING MONDAY'S PUSH. 31 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/ DISCUSSION... AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WE'LL SEE WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...SO WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE AREA WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ON THANKSGIVING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. NEXT WEEKEND...AN ONSHORE FLOW COMES BACK TO THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. 42 MARINE... EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS HAVE WEAKENED TO BELOW SCEC. QUIET PATTERN TODAY UNDER LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THIS RECENT LOW WILL AID IN TURNING THESE BREEZES AROUND TO ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL INITIATE SCA FLAGS GOING INTO...AND THROUGH...WEDNESDAY. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 48 75 56 68 / 0 0 10 30 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 70 48 76 61 72 / 0 0 10 30 40 GALVESTON (GLS) 66 55 73 64 73 / 0 0 10 30 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...35