000
FXHW60 PHFO 081330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS AS HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE 
TO BRING WET TRADES TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...BUT THE 
MODERATE TRADES WILL OCCASIONALLY BLOW THE SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS. 
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE WET WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS. 
&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO BRING 
TRADES TO THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVEN/T MADE ANY 
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. LOOK FOR THE WET 
TRADE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND OCCASIONALLY MAKE IT TO LEE AREAS.

THE BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE 
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING OVER THE ISLANDS AT THE MID WEEK. THE ECMWF 
DID BACK OFF A LITTLE BIT WITH THE LATEST RUN...WHICH JUST BRINGS IT 
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS DEPICTION. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADJUSTED 
THE GRIDS TOWARDS THE GFS WITH REGARDS TO WINDS AND POPS. 

THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND EVEN POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. WAS HESITANT TO PUT THUNDER IN QUITE 
YET...BUT HAVE ADDED THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE SLOW TO GET RID OF THE LOW 
ONCE ITS BROUGHT INTO THE AREA AT MID WEEK. THE LOW LINGERS TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL 
KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS UNSTABLE. DEPENDING ON THE 
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK 
WILL FACTOR INTO WHETHER OR NOT THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN 
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. 

GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THAT BACK TO BACK RUNS OF 
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC 
OUTLOOK FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. 

TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVELS REVEALS TEMPERATURES 
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING AT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ON WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SUMMIT AREAS AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS 
COME IN TO NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFICS FOR THOSE LOCALES. 

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE WINDIER AREAS 
AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY 
UP FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH TODAY. SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY 
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A NORTHEAST SWELL MAY RESULT IN 
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. 

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO 
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$