000 FXHW60 PHFO 101329 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST WED FEB 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... STABLE MORNING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE...BUT A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KAUAI TODAY AND OAHU TONIGHT AS IT DISSIPATES. THE TRADES WILL PICK UP TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... AND THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT RAINFALL AFTER TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW WINDWARD SHOWERS. && .DISCUSSION... OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED LIGHT TRADE WINDS. ALTHOUGH RAIN GAUGES STILL LOGGED VIRTUALLY NO RAIN...WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT PRODUCED INCREASED CLOUD COVER AROUND THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. THE HILO SOUNDING SHOWED A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INVERSION BASE... BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE REMAINED EXTREMELY LOW. FORECAST CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE STATE...AND POPS FOR SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND HAVE BEEN BROUGHT UP TO THE THRESHOLD FOR ISOLATED-SHOWER WORDING IN THE ZONES...BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE SCANT ACCUMULATION. THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ALSO SPUTTERED...MORE OR LESS AS EXPECTED. THE FRONT MAY REACH KAUAI LATER TODAY...AND OAHU TONIGHT...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING BAND PROBABLY WILL FALL APART EARLIER WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE OR UPPER SUPPORT. INDEED...ASIDE FROM WEAKENING THE TRADES TODAY...ITS MAIN LOCAL EFFECT MAY BE LIMITED TO PROVIDING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE FOR TRADE-WIND SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTER IT DISINTEGRATES. THE TRADE WINDS WILL SPEED UP SOMEWHAT FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RECOVERS...BUT THEN WILL WEAKEN AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. MOST SOLUTIONS STILL PORTRAY THIS FEATURE AS BEING EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE ARRIVING TODAY...SO DRY TRADE WINDS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...ALBEIT AT SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS. GUIDANCE STARTS TO DISAGREE MORE BY LATE SUNDAY. SOME SOLUTIONS WEAR DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS...WHILE OTHERS BRING BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AS A DISTINCT FEATURE. IN ANY CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT MIGHT HAVE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT FROM ALOFT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AT LOW LEVELS...SO FOR NOW THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD INCLUDES ONLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. && .MARINE... A NORTHWEST SWELL PRODUCED BY A LARGE AND INTENSE STORM SYSTEM FAR NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP SURF HEIGHTS AT WARNING LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE LETTING THEM FALL TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY. A REINFORCING SMALLER NORTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED TO COME IN ON SATURDAY WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF INTO THE WEEKEND. A SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK LATE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES. THE SURF FROM THIS SWELL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE 8-FOOT HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR SOUTH-FACING SHORES. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KONA-KOHALA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL- OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ RYSHKO