000 FXUS61 KGYX 240631 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 131 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BRIEFLY FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE CREATING A RAIN SHIELD THAT IS JUST TICKLING OUR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LESS THAN 0.10 INCH OF QPF OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE EXPECTED JUST AWAY FROM THE COASTAL ZONES AND EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUN WILL BE NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS TODAY...THOUGH SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN BEFORE SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TONIGHT. NAM KEEPS MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS...WHILE GFS DRYS IT OUT. FOR NOW HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...AND HAVE GONE WITH CLOUDS PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE TO POPULATE THE GRIDDED DATABASE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS GEM SOLUTION...WHILE BLENDING IDEAS OF NAM INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VERY SLOW TO PULL OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...WEAK STABLE WAVE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...BEFORE SLOWLY PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LOCK IN LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED WITH THE LIGHT NNE IF PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMS...AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC DURING THIS PERIOD. BASED ON ABOVE DISCUSSION...HAVE GONE ABOVE GFS POPS...BELOW ON TEMPS...AND HAVE MADE SOME COMPROMISES SLOWLY TOWARDS NAM MOS NUMBERS. MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM PASSES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. THERE ARE MODEL DESCREPANCIES ON THIS AS WELL...WITH THE GEM KEEPING THE SYSTEM VERY PROGRESSIVE LOOKING...WHILE THE GFS CAPTURES SOME ENERGY AND SWINGS IT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL ON THIS CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN. WILL TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT THE EURO UPON ARRIVAL. AS WFO BOX STATED...THERE COULD BE SOME OFFSHORE CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY. COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...MOSTLY MVFR TODAY OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCAL IFR EARLY THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS TODAY WITH LOCAL MVFR IN ANY PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG. TONIGHT...MVFR OVER COASTAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS...VFR OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR IN ANY PATCHY VALLEY FOG. LONG TERM...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR...BORDERING IFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY - MAINLY SOUTH. PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY EVENING. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THURSDAY...BEFORE PASSING OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THEREAFTER FROM THE WNW. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LONG TERM...SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH TO DROP SCAS HOWEVER. GUSTY N WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE STRONG FROM THE WNW BY SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY INTO GALES. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ S