000 FXUS61 KGYX 041343 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 943 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE COOL WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A BIT COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... 1002 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER EASTERN QUEBEC AT 13Z WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. VISIBLE SHOWS SCT-BKN CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MAINE WHERE HEATING HAS ALREADY PUSHED TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 70. MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB HINTS THAT HEATING...COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AND AN IMPULSE RACING EAST-SOUTHEAST...WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. I'VE ADDED A MENTION OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ZONES FOR THE UPDATE. STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING A BIT FASTER THEN YESTERDAY SO ANY HYDRO ISSUES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE TRAINING ECHOES. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS ADJUSTED BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS MESONET. .PREV DISC... BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR TODAY AS ENERGY CURRENTLY DIVING INTO BASE OF 500MB TROUGH CLOSED IT OFF BRIEFLY AS IT...AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL...CROSSES NRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THE MTNS WILL LKLY DEAL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...WITH SHRA THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS AREA WILL BE RIGHT BENEATH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT. TO THE SOUTH...FORECAST A BIT TRICKIER AS THE LOWER TO MID LVLS WILL START WITH WESTERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO NW IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MEAN DOWNSLOPING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PARTIALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT...BUT ANY SUN WILL ADD TO INSTABILITY...SO COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRE UP IN SOUTHERN ZONES AS WELL....ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT ONCE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THRU DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...WILL SEE ADDL DRYING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE MOVE THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY TSRA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THINK THE HEAVY RAIN IS REDUCED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS....GIVEN BETTER FLOW AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND RGEM FOR MAX T. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHRA IN THE MTNS...EXPECTING A DRY EVENING. SKIES IN THE SRN ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THE MTNS SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING CLOUDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LKLY HAPPEN MORE SLOWLY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO...AS COLD AIR IS IN PLACE...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR A CHANGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ONE UPPER AIR SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE THEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER AIR LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LEAVING US IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A MINOR SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW RACES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ALL THIS RESULTS IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS MOISTEN UP A BIT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND LOW TUESDAY WHICH WILL YIELD A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD BEGIN AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. USED GMOS TO POPULATE GRIDDED DATABASE. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM... KCON/KLEB...MAINLY VFR THRU TONIGHT. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR VIS/CIGS IN SHRA...WITH THE OUTSIDE CHC OF A TSRA UNTIL ABOUT 20Z...BUT TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN TAFS. KPSM/KPWM/KAUG...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE POST- SUNRISE MORNING HOURS...WITH VFR THRU THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCAT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. LONG TERM... MOSTLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR ANY LOCAL MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...FAIRLY QUIET ON THE WATERS THRU TONIGHT. THE DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WIND SHIFT. WEST WINDS PICK UP...PERHAPS BRIEFLY GUSTING TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. LONG TERM...WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA VALUES. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$