000
FXUS64 KFWD 271123 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
523 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PREVAIL SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TODAY IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

82/JLD

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. COOLER PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
DAY TEN.

ONLY A FEW FORECAST CHANGES THOUGH MONDAY. CONTINUED THE 70S
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL START OUT CLOUDY WITH
SOUTH WINDS...AND THEN EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE RAPIDLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE MIX ALONG
WITH THE SHOWERS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. STORM TOTAL
PRECIP COULD AVERAGE AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE THINS OUT MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE REMOVED THE
THUNDER AFTER SUNRISE.

ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FORECAST AN UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A COLD RAIN EVENT. IF
PRECIP COULD LINGER LONGER INTO WEDNESDAY THAN MODELS
FORECAST...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SLUSHY SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO EVEN IF IT OCCURRED IT WOULD NOT BE A
BIG EVENT. I HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
BECAUSE MODELS CURRENTLY CUT PRECIP OFF BEFORE THE COOLING
OCCURS.    84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  50  72  59  61 /   0   5  10  10  50 
WACO, TX              71  50  72  59  65 /   0   5  10  10  50 
PARIS, TX             67  44  68  54  61 /   0   5   5  10  60 
DENTON, TX            72  49  72  56  59 /   0   5   5  10  50 
MCKINNEY, TX          71  47  71  57  61 /   0   5   5  10  60 
DALLAS, TX            71  50  72  60  61 /   0   5   5  10  50 
TERRELL, TX           70  48  72  59  64 /   0   5   5  10  60 
CORSICANA, TX         70  49  70  60  66 /   0   5   5  10  50 
TEMPLE, TX            69  49  72  61  66 /   0   5  10  10  40 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/84