000 FXUS64 KFWD 091132 AAA AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 532 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009 .AVIATION... LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN. CIGS ARE LOWEST GENERALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND AREAS WEST OF THERE WHERE MVFR/IFR BKN007-015 CONDS PREVAIL. FARTHER EAST...VFR CIGS OVC100 PREVAIL. THINK CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH SUNRISE AFFECTING THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL PREVAIL BKN015 WITH SOME TEMPO SCT015 CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN QUITE SPOTTY...SO WILL LEAVE PRECIP MENTION OUT OF CURRENT SET OF TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING LINGERING MOISTURE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SCT025 AND INTRODUCE BKN CIGS LATER IF NECESSARY. 91/DUNN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/ UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...AND AS MID LEVEL WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE EAST ON THE BACKSIDE...IT IS CAUSING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. SOME WEAK SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS WERE PLACED IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE NAM/5KM WRF ARE SHOWING HIGHER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TODAY. DRYING ALOFT FROM SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND AN INTENSIFYING NORTHERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY WILL BRING IN SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT A PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE SLOW TO BRING BACK GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. 60 DEWPOINTS SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY AND THAT WILL BRING ABOUT MORE CLOUDS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH/EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN...SO 12 HOUR POPS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE. RIGHT NOW HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS TIMING...AND WILL SHOW FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW POPS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A POTENTIAL FOR POST-FRONTAL OVER RUNNING. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 57 75 54 73 / 20 5 0 0 0 WACO, TX 74 57 75 55 75 / 30 5 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 73 53 74 52 71 / 20 5 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 75 55 74 51 74 / 20 5 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 74 53 75 50 71 / 20 5 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 74 59 75 55 73 / 20 5 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 73 56 77 56 72 / 30 5 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 73 57 77 55 74 / 30 5 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 73 55 77 55 75 / 20 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$