000
FXUS64 KFWD 080452 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CIGS WITH HIGH-MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. CIGS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN FL150-FL300. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TOO AND
EXPECT SOME CUMULUS TO MATERIALIZE WITH HEATING MONDAY. CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD AS FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION AND PWS SURGE TO 2 INCHES. TR.92

&&
.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER SIG
CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

91/DUNN 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008/
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE WARM...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE THAN
OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WEAK COOL
FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE FRONTS...BUT WE DON'T EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. 

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TRACK OF
HURRICANE IKE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS COAST...OR ADJACENT AREAS TO THE EAST...ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST. OBVIOUSLY...OTHER POSSIBILITIES EXIST. 

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE TROPICAL RAINFALL FROM
IKE...SHOULD IT MOVE INTO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS COULD FALL
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH TEXAS
AREA.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE A NUMBER OF POSSIBLE TRACK SOLUTIONS FOR
IKE. WE COULD END UP WITH HEAVY RAIN IN NORTH TEXAS...AND ON THE
OTHER HAND..WE COULD HAVE NO RAIN AT ALL.

26



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  91  72  87  72 /   5  20  30  30  10 
WACO, TX              73  90  71  89  71 /   5  20  20  30  20 
PARIS, TX             67  87  67  87  67 /   5  20  20  20  10 
DENTON, TX            70  91  64  88  69 /   5  20  30  30  10 
MCKINNEY, TX          69  90  68  88  68 /   5  20  30  30  10 
DALLAS, TX            73  91  72  87  72 /   5  20  30  30  10 
TERRELL, TX           71  90  70  89  70 /   5  20  20  30  10 
CORSICANA, TX         70  90  71  89  71 /   5  20  20  30  10 
TEMPLE, TX            70  90  71  90  70 /   5  20  20  30  20 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/91