000
FXUS65 KFGZ 092130
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST THU JUL 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO ARIZONA. NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDING FROM KFGZ SHOWED SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT PW VALUES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE HAS BEEN IN THE MID
LEVELS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING. SFC PLOTS SHOW THAT
THIS DRYNESS COVERS MUCH OF AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
20S TO 30S MOST LOCATIONS...AND A FEW 40S IN THE EASTERN ZONES. IN
ADDITION...GPSMET IPW SHOWS VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS NRN AZ THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS NOTED OVER
THE WHITE MTNS. EXPECTING ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER NRN TX THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS FCST TO REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO INTO AZ. THE RESULT WILL
BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD
ONCE AGAIN AND CUT OFF THE FLOW OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A DRY AND BREEZY
PATTERN TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO RESUME WITH SOME
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPS SHOULD RUN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN
BEGIN TO WARM A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 18Z FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF 
NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AROUND 02Z. ADDITIONAL 
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AZ FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY. 

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN NEAR 
NEW MEXICO WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE 
TO FLOW NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AZ. HOWEVER...THE HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGE ALOFT MAY CREATE A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING ONLY 
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....................DB
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER......DJO

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER 
INFORMATION.