000
FXUS65 KFGZ 091044
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST MON NOV 09 2009

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES 
ARIZONA. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS 
FORECAST FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. 

&& 

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLOW ALOFT OVER ARIZONA WILL BEGIN AS WESTERLY TODAY AND BECOME 
SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES 
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
THEN THICKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE JET STREAM AND A TROUGH OF LOW 
PRESSURE SAG SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN 
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ARIZONA. 

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT 
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST AZ THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE CWA 
THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BLOW THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER 
TEMPS. MODEL MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS 
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE 
MOVING AWAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY CLEAR BUT COOL 
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 
FCST PERIOD. SMOKE FROM BURNS NEAR KGCN MAY REDUCE VSBY DOWN TO 1/2 
MILE AT TIMES EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION 
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&
$$

PUBLIC.................DL
AVIATION...............TEC

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.