000 FXUS62 KFFC 260958 AAA AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 500 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HAPPY THANKSGIVING! MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR HIGH WILL BE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...MAKING FOR A QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY THANKSGIVING DAY. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NW GA BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST UP TO 25 MPH TODAY AND THEN SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. SINCE FRONT WILL BE PASSING LATE IN THE DAY...THE BEST MIX-DOWN WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CONCERN OVER FLURRY POSSIBILITIES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AFTER FRONT PASSES. OROGRAPHIC LIFT MIGHT SQUEEZE OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SREF HINTS AT THIS BUT NAM KEEPS PRECIP TO THE NORTH. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE STILL APPARENT...I'LL NOT INCLUDE FLURRIES ATTM. AFTER FROPA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT-TERM DISAGREEMENTS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE MAX/MIN TEMPS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN THREE DEGREES OF EACH OTHER AT EACH SITE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. POPS ARE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE VALUES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE SHORT-TERM...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE FLURRIES NORTHEAST. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THIS IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING TO SOME CONSENSUS IN DEVELOPING A SPLIT TROF ALOFT...WITH THE POLAR JET PORTION ROLLING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THE SUB-TROPICAL JET TRAILING IT THROUGH THE GULF COAST BY MIDWEEK. THE FIRST /NORTHERN/ TROF WILL DRAG A FRONT ACROSS GA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ACCORDING TO GFS AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF. CANADIAN GEM DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW IN THE GULF AND LIFTS IT UP THE FRONT OVER GA. ALL POINT TO RAIN EVENT FOR MONDAY WITH THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS ARE VARIED DUE TO THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER...WEAKER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...AS SUCH SYSTEMS TEND TO GET OVERDONE AND OVER-HURRIED BY THE GFS. WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROF...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING...TRACK...AND DEPTH OF THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. GFS AGGRESSIVELY FORMS A SFC LOW IN THE GULF THAT LIFTS INTO GA BY WEDNESDAY. EMWCF HAS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE GULF. CANADIAN ONLY BEGINS TO HINT AT A LOW FORMING. IN THIS CASE...WILL FAVOR THE GFS...AS ITS ENSEMBLES ALL POINT TO SOMETHING EJECTING FROM THE GULF MIDWEEK. THIS BODES FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IF IT VERIFIES. DUE TO THE DRAMATIC VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE EARLY-WEEK SYSTEM AND LOW FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. ABOUT ALL THAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CERTAINTY IS TO ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND BECAUSE NEXT WEEK TURNS WET. && .AVIATION... CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PATCHY FOG NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND MCN IS THE ONLY SITE REPORTING MVFR DUE TO 4SM BR. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 13Z. BASED UPON THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY FEW-SCT040 POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH REINFORCING SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...INCREASING WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-15KTS AND GUSTS OF 22-25 POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT REMAIN NEAR 10KTS ACROSS THE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 59 34 58 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 ATLANTA 57 35 56 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 51 30 52 29 59 / 0 10 0 0 0 CARTERSVILLE 56 32 54 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 62 38 58 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 56 35 55 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 MACON 62 35 59 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 ROME 55 33 56 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 PEACHTREE CITY 58 32 53 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 VIDALIA 63 35 57 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 27