084 FXUS62 KFFC 040558 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1250 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT... .UPDATE...SEEMS LIKE IT HAS BEEN A WHILE BUT FINALLY A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAD PLAGUED THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR TONIGHT. WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON ANTICIPATED LOW TEMPS. CURRENT VALUES LOOK ON TRACK WITH OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. DEESE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT WAVE THAT GAVE US THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING IS FINALLY LOSING ITS GRIP OVER THE CWA. SKIES ARE IN THE PROGRESS OF BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THIS EVENING SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES INTO THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BUT THEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S/L60S AFTER ANOTHER COLD START. WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHWEST GA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY FROZEN PRECIP NOR DO NOT EXPECT ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TUESDAY TO WARRANT THE MENTION IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE MODEL WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH. AT THIS TIME ENOUGH DISCREPANCY TO KEEP THE RISK OF THUNDER IN ALL DAY. 17 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING MINOR DISCREPANCIES WITH LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. ECMWF IS MORE EXPANSIVE WITH MOISTURE FIELD ON WRAP-AROUND BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM COMING FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THIS IS AN OUTLIER FROM OTHER GUIDANCE MEMBERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA COLD ALOFT TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWER TRANSITION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE MENTION BUT DID NOT ADJUST COVERAGE. FUTURE UPDATES MAY WARRANT EXPANDING THE SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT EVEN THOUGH SFC TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING LATE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND DID NOT JUSTIFY CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... BAKER PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013/ LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS THE MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. DESPITE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND POSITIONING OF FEATURES. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL SWEEP INTO THE TN VALLEY AND BRING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP BACK TO THE CWA. FRONT WILL PUSH INTO GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AND OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS 00Z RUN WITH POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND OVERALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OR EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL PROVIDING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT BRASSTOWN BALD SUGGESTS THE RAIN COULD TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONTINUES TO MENTION RAIN AND SNOW DURING THIS TIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SOME INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SHOWN BY MUCAPE VALUES IN THE GFS AND NAM WHILE LIFTED INDICES ARE JUST BELOW ZERO. COULD GO EITHER WAY ON MENTIONING ISOLATED TS IN THE GRIDS SO WILL CONTINUE TREND TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CWA AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. 11 AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... VFR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONLY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10KT AFTER 14Z. A WIND SHIFT SHOULD OCCUR LATE BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 26 58 40 60 / 0 5 10 70 ATLANTA 30 56 46 60 / 0 5 10 60 BLAIRSVILLE 23 53 37 52 / 0 10 30 80 CARTERSVILLE 26 56 42 59 / 5 10 30 70 COLUMBUS 32 60 46 67 / 0 5 10 50 GAINESVILLE 27 54 42 55 / 0 5 20 70 MACON 28 59 40 66 / 0 5 10 40 ROME 26 57 42 59 / 5 10 40 80 PEACHTREE CITY 26 58 42 61 / 0 5 10 60 VIDALIA 32 62 44 69 / 0 5 5 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS... CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE... CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE... DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN... FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON... GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD... HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON... JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION... MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE... NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH... PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY... SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT... TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN... TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN... WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX... WILKES...WILKINSON. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEESE LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...DEESE