000 FXUS64 KEPZ 101115 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 415 AM MST WED FEB 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWLAND RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .DISCUSSION... ANOTHER WEEK AND ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THE STORM TRACK HAS CERTAINLY BEEN VERY EL NINO LIKE THIS YEAR WITH PLENTY OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.S. THAT MAKES THINGS A LITTLE LESS WHITE FOR THE OLYMPICS UP NORTH IN VANCOUVER. FOR US AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST MAKING THE TURN TO THE EAST OVER SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. RIGHT NOW THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THE REST OF US WILL GET IN ON THE ACTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AROUND 7K BUT SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 5K BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON HOW MUCH SNOW THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET WITH THE NAM ON THE LOW SIDE AND THE GFS ON THE HIGH SIDE. I WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET ONE MORE MODEL RUN IN BEFORE MAKING THE DECISION TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY OR A WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RIGHT NOW FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH I'M GOING FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE GILA MOUNTAINS AND 5 TO 8 INCHES IN THE SACS. IN THE LOWLANDS A COUPLE OF THINGS TO WATCH FOR. AS THE LOW COMES ACROSS WE COULD SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN BRIEFLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT I'M NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THAT AS THE LOW CENTER MOVE IN EARLY ON THURSDAY WE COULD ALSO GET A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...RIGHT NOW THERE IS ALREADY A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN WESTERN ARIZONA. WITH IT BEING SO COOL ALOFT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO POP UP WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO DROP SOME SMALL HAIL. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOW ITSELF WILL BE TO OUR EAST. FOR FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A RIDGE BUILD OUT WEST AND THAT WILL KEEP US IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THAT FRONT LOOKS DRY AND NOT VERY COLD. THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT NEXT WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW AFTER TONIGHT'S SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE PIPELINE FOR SOME TIME TO COME. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WE WILL SEE OUR HIGHS RUNNING SIX TO EIGHT DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA WE CAN EXPECT OUR HIGHS TO RUN AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR FRIDAY WE WILL SEE OUR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER SO OUR HIGHS WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOUR DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND THEN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT ON SUNDAY WE WILL SEE OUR HIGHS RUNNING AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE CAN EXPECT OUR HIGHS TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...10/12Z-11/12Z AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LOWER CEILINGS DURING THE DAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE WIDE SPREAD LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM IN THE LOWLANDS...AND WITH THOSE FEW THUNDERSTORSM COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL. MOST OF THE TIME TONIGHT WE WILL HAVE MVRF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...BUT I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE HIT IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON THE CEILINGS...A COUPLE OF TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN AND SNOW WILL START OUT WEST FIRST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS STARTING AT AROUND 7K. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5K BY THURSDAY MORNING AND MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH SNOW THE MOUNTAINS WILL RECEIVE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE GILAS COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE THE SACS COULD RECEIVE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF WINTERY MIX IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT I'M NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR EAST. WE WILL STAY UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND SO WE WILL SEE OUR TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW BOTH FRONTS LOOK DRY AND NOT TO COLD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 54 38 53 37 61 / 10 50 40 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 49 33 48 33 59 / 10 40 40 10 0 LAS CRUCES 54 37 53 34 60 / 10 60 40 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 51 36 50 35 59 / 10 60 40 10 0 CLOUDCROFT 34 20 32 20 39 / 10 60 40 10 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 35 50 34 57 / 30 70 40 0 0 SILVER CITY 45 30 39 29 48 / 30 70 20 0 0 DEMING 53 37 51 35 59 / 20 70 30 0 0 LORDSBURG 51 36 50 33 60 / 30 70 30 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ022-025. TX...NONE. && $$ 15/15