000 FXUS64 KEPZ 161006 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 406 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2008 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THAT MEANS TODAY WE WILL SEE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AS THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE AWAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE WINDS RETURN TO THE BORDERLAND. && .DISCUSSION... WELL IN A NUT SHELL DURING THE NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET A TASTE OF THREE OUT OF FOUR OF OUR SEASONS. TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY FALL LIKE AS WE WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE CULPRIT FOR TODAY'S WEATHER IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS SETTLED INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING. IF THE LOW STAYS STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS WE COULD SEE WIDE SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IF SOME OF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE LOW SINKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WE COULD SEE A QUICK END TO OUR PRECIP. WHAT I HAVE DONE IS TRIMMED POPS BACK WITH GENERALLY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. CURRENTLY A FLOOD WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTH TULAROSA FIRE SCAR AND I WILL BE CANCELING THAT LATER THIS MORNING AS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS HAS GONE AWAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN SET RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTER TODAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO OUR SECOND SEASON FOR THE WEEK. AS THE LOW SINKS SOUTH A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY QUICK WARM UP INTO SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. AS A MATTER OF FACT WE WILL SEE ALMOST A TEN DEGREES RISE IN HIGHS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND ON MONDAY THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UP BY MIDWEEK WITH THE MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING A HIGH OF 99 NEXT WED...SO WE WILL BE SEEING SOME VERY SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. OUR FINAL STOP ON OUR SEASONAL TOUR WILL BE SPRING...NOT TEMPERATURE WISE...BUT WIND WISE. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED BACK WEST AND THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AS YOU KNOW THOSE OUR WIND MAKERS...SO NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE LOOKING VERY WINDY. && .AVIATION...16/12Z-17/12Z GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 5K TO 120K TO UNLIMITED. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP DURING THE DAY THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GONE BY SATURDAY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... GENERALLY CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH SURFACE MOISTURE. STILL A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SATURDAY SATURDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A NICE WARM UP AND DRY OUT. BY MONDAY WE WILL SEE VERY LOW RH'S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY SUNNY WEATHER. IN ADDITION EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING STRONG WINDS FOR BOTH NEXT WEDNESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 71 52 79 55 88 / 40 20 20 10 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 64 49 78 54 88 / 30 20 20 10 0 LAS CRUCES 70 50 78 54 88 / 30 20 20 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 65 52 78 54 89 / 20 10 10 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 45 36 57 41 66 / 30 10 10 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 50 77 52 87 / 20 10 10 0 0 SILVER CITY 64 43 73 49 81 / 30 10 10 0 0 DEMING 70 52 78 54 88 / 30 20 10 0 0 LORDSBURG 72 51 78 54 87 / 40 30 10 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ BRICE