000 FXUS64 KEPZ 080940 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 240 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE BORDERLAND YESTERDAY WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND MOVE DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS MORE SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE EFFECTS SUBDUED AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY. THE AREA WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WE'RE WATCHING THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. AS OF NOW IT IS ONLY ADVERTISING INCREASES IN WINDS AND CLOUDS...BUT STILL NO RAIN. && .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE VIEWS SHOW THE UPPER LOW HAS OPENED...IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA...AND IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND PASS EAST. STORMS DEVELOPED OVER N MEXICO LAST EVENING BUT STAYED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE EVACUATED ALL BUT THE EASTERN 1/3 OF OUR CWFA AND A CLEARING TREND OVER THAT REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. TODAY THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR US THAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DRIER AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS BACK OVER THE CWFA. THIS BRINGS BACK MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ALLOWS FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. NOTHING NOTABLE IN THE NEAR TERM FOR THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT IS PROGED TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SLOWLY BUILDING WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE ALOFT THE LATEST CHARTS NOW SUGGEST WEAKER FRONTAL EFFECTS. BASICALLY THEY STILL SHOW THE FRONT TO MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS BUT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS WEAKER AS IS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THUS HAVE INCHED THE TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY AND REMOVED ALL POPS AND MENTIONS OF PCPN FOR THE SACS FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN TO THE NORMAL RANGE AT BEST. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE FORMATION OF A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH MODELS SPLIT INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGH. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH LOOKS TO DROP OVER THE SW THUR AND PULL ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA ON A SUB-TROPICAL TAP. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARRIVE FRIDAY AND EXIT SATURDAY. MODELS KEEP THE LOW LEVELS GENERALLY DRY...BUT DO GIVE THE HINT OF LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FOR NOW JUST HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THOSE PERIODS. WILL WAIT FOR A BETTER SIGNAL TO INTRODUCE ANY POPS. && AVIATION...VALID 08/12Z-09/12Z... VFR CONDTS THRU PD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL DECREASE TODAY. FEW-SCT180-250 EARLY...BCMG SKC ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. && .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY TODAY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TODAY. DECREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT. MAJORITY OF ATMOSPHERE FROM GROUND UP WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH IMPROVING NIGHT-TIME RH RECOVERIES NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO SLOWLY RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH FOR CLEARING SKIES. SLOW NATURE OF BUILDING RIDGE...WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH FOUR CORNERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT THRU MON NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...WITH 2 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING POSSIBLE BELOW MONDAYS HIGHS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 76 47 78 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 73 43 75 41 72 / 10 0 0 0 10 LAS CRUCES 75 44 77 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 71 41 73 39 69 / 0 0 0 10 10 CLOUDCROFT 60 29 61 29 57 / 0 0 0 10 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 75 41 76 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 71 40 73 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 75 42 77 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 76 42 78 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 14/BIRD