000 FXUS64 KEPZ 042000 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 200 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009 .SYNOPSIS... MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES FLOWING INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS CAUSING HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG WITH CAPES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTER WAS MEANWHILE LOCATED NEAR TCS WITH TRAILING TROUGH/VORTICITY AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING ACTING TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION. DEEP MOISTURE INDICATES LITTLE ENTRAINMENT SO ANY CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. STEERING FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS STORM MOVEMENT OF ONLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. THUS DEEP CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY WEAK SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SUSTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INFLOW. CONSEQUENTLY SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN AROUND 60 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. AND DESPITE WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION AFTERNOON CAPES SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG TOMORROW. LIFTING ALONG AND OVER FRONT POSSIBLY COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD THEREFORE GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND EVEN ISOLATED FLOODING. MODELS INDICATE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AFTER SUNDAY WITH GFS PLACING 500 MB HEIGHT CENTER NEAR ABQ BY LATER WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION BY MID WEEK SURFACE LEE CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH WARMING ALOFT STABILIZING THE AIR MASS. LEE CYCLONE WILL ALSO INDUCE MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT SURFACE WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION LOWERING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO LESS THAN AN INCH. CONSEQUENTLY MOST OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. && .AVIATION...VALID 05/0000Z-06/0000Z... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL BRING PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...ADDING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING WESTWARD TODAY... WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. WHILE THIS TYPICALLY DRIES US OUT...THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NORTHWEST FLOW OFTEN HAVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND IT LEAVES US OPEN FOR STRONGER THAN NORMAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO DROP IN...ENHANCING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUIETER BY TUE/WED... WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACS AND GILA. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S-60S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S/50S BY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH BOTH WIND AND RH STAYING FAR FROM CRITICAL VALUES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 72 93 70 95 71 / 40 40 40 20 20 SIERRA BLANCA TX 65 90 67 92 64 / 40 50 40 20 20 LAS CRUCES 69 93 67 94 68 / 40 40 40 20 20 ALAMOGORDO 67 92 66 94 66 / 40 50 50 20 20 CLOUDCROFT 51 67 49 71 50 / 50 50 50 30 20 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 91 65 93 65 / 30 40 40 20 20 SILVER CITY 62 85 61 87 61 / 40 40 40 30 20 DEMING 67 92 66 95 66 / 30 40 30 20 20 LORDSBURG 66 92 65 94 65 / 30 30 30 20 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ022>025-030>032. TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ055-056. && $$ 05 ROGASH/25 HARDIMAN