000 FXUS64 KEPZ 222035 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 135 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN COOLER BUT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SUSTAIN TRANSPORT OF WARM DRY AIR ONE MORE DAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ADVECTING COLDER CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH EAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING IN COOLER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD THUS BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER. PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLEX AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE UPPER LOW IN WEAKER SOUTHERLY BRANCH DRIFTS ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MODELS IN AGREEMENT DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SPREADS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. SO EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING WITH POSSIBLE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. WILL GO WITH LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS FOR LATER PERIODS AS BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW INCREASING ZONAL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES INSIST ONCE AGAIN THAT A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY INDICATING THE USUAL UNCERTAINTIES EXIST BEYOND 120 HOURS. && .AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING OFF MAX TEMPS...COOLEST NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE...AND ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWLANDS. STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER WEDNESDAY... THUS EXPECT ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW TO BE STRONGEST OUT THAT WAY WED AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH NO PRECIP LIKELY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY TAKE SHAPE BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD TRENDS HOLD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 41 70 39 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 38 67 33 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 38 69 38 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 33 68 36 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 26 54 22 46 18 / 0 0 0 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 32 67 31 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 34 62 30 58 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 34 69 36 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 34 70 34 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 05 ROGASH/25 HARDIMAN