000 FGUS73 KDTX 131907 ESFDTX MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-145-155-157-161-163-141200- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 305 PM EST FRI MAR 13 2009 ...2009 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK... THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND INCLUDES THE RIVERS IN THE SAGINAW RIVER BASIN AND THE CLINTON...ROUGE...HURON AND RIVER RAISIN BASINS. THE SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE DETROIT/PONTIAC OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL THE MODEL LOCATIONS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED BASINS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX. THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES THE CHANCES OF REACHING MINOR...MODERATE ...MAJOR FLOODING AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 90 DAYS VALID 3/17/2009 - 6/15/2009 DEP FROM ---------FLOOD STAGES--------- NORMAL MINOR MODERATE MAJOR OF REACHING LOCATION STG PCT STG PCT STG PCT FLOOD STAGE --------------------------------------------------------------------- CLINTON R AT CLINTON TOWNSHIP 16 6% 17 --- 19 --- NEAR NORMAL NO BR CLINTON R AT MT CLEMENS 15 6% 16 1% 20 --- 9% LESS CLINTON R AT MT CLEMENS 16 --- 17 --- 18 --- N/A RVR ROUGE AT DETROIT 15 22% 17 1% 18 1% NEAR NORMAL MI RVR ROUGE AT DEARBORN HTS 10 1% 11 --- 12 --- N/A LWR RVR ROUGE AT INKSTER 10 16% 12 3% 14 --- NEAR NORMAL MILL CR AT DEXTER 12 1% 13 --- 14 --- NEAR NORMAL HURON R AT HAMBURG 6.5 100% 7 98% 7.5 49% 57% GREATER HURON R AT ANN ARBOR 16 1% 17 --- 18 --- NEAR NORMAL RVR RAISIN AT TECUMSEH 13 --- 14 --- 15 --- N/A RVR RAISIN AT ADRIAN 18 --- 19 --- 20 --- N/A RVR RAISIN AT BLISSFIELD 683 13% 685 3% 687 --- NEAR NORMAL RVR RAISIN AT DUNDEE 650 10% 652 1% 653 --- NEAR NORMAL RVR RAISIN AT MONROE WTP 9 15% 10 --- 11 --- 6% GREATER STG = STAGE (FEET) PCT = PERCENT --- = DISTRIBUTION COMPLETELY BELOW THIS STAGE DEP = DEPARTURE DEP FROM ---------FLOOD STAGES--------- NORMAL MINOR MODERATE MAJOR OF REACHING LOCATION STG PCT STG PCT STG PCT FLOOD STAGE --------------------------------------------------------------------- PINE R AT MIDLAND 12 --- 14 --- 16 --- N/A TITTABAWASSEE R AT MIDLAND 24 10% 28 1% 30 1% NEAR NORMAL SHIAWASSEE R AT OWOSSO 7 35% 9 1% 10 --- 10% GREATER SHIAWASSEE R AT FERGUS 10 25% 14 --- 15 --- NEAR NORMAL KEARSLEY CR AT DAVISON 10 11% 11 --- 12 --- NEAR NORMAL FLINT R AT FLINT 13 5% 14 --- 15 --- NEAR NORMAL CASS R AT CASS CITY 14 1% 18 1% 20 --- NEAR NORMAL CASS R AT VASSAR 14 3% 15 3% 18 1% NEAR NORMAL CASS R AT FRANKENMUTH 17 16% 20 3% 25 1% NEAR NORMAL SAGINAW R AT SAGINAW 17 39% 19 11% 24 --- 7% GREATER STG = STAGE (FEET) PCT = PERCENT --- = DISTRIBUTION COMPLETELY BELOW THIS STAGE DEP = DEPARTURE ...PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK... THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE... AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ...PAST PRECIPITATION... AS OF THE BEGINNING OF MARCH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA. ...RIVER CONDITIONS... CURRENTLY RIVER LEVELS ARE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SEVERAL JUST RECEDING BELOW FLOOD STAGE. RIVERS ARE MAINLY ICE FREE. ...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS... SOIL MOISTURE IS WAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONDITIONS SATURATED. FROST DEPTHS RANGE FROM SEVERAL INCHES UP TO TWO FEET LOCATIONS. ...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT... ONLY SNOW COVER LEFT WOULD BE PATCHES IN THE THE WOODS. ...WEATHER OUTLOOK... THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY... THE RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH AND THE SOIL IS SATURATED. THERE IS A HIGH POSSIBILITY FOR MORE FLOODING IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT:WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTW/(INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL LOWER CASE). LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH...NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH...THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. $$ DRC