000
FXUS61 KCTP 041150
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
750 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY AND MILDER CONDS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER TROF RETREATS
NORTHEASTWARD THRU NEW ENG AND SFC RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE ASCENDING MTNS CURRENTLY PRODUCING
STATOCU OVR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
BY MIDDAY WITH MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM HIGH
CLOUDINESS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER TDY...HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN A BIT LOWER THAN 850 MB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LATEST SREF DATA CONTINUES TO TRACK SFC LOW SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...BRINGING THE CHC OF LGT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. RETREATING DRY AIRMASS OVR NORTHERN PA...COMBINED WITH
MCLEAR SKIES...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE TO THE 40S OVER THE N
MTNS...WHILE CLOUD COVER KEEPS TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER OVR THE
SOUTH. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT...CENTERED ALONG THE 305K THETA SFC
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING THE NRN EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN
SHIELD /WITH SVRL HUNDREDTHS TO 0.10" QPF/ AS FAR NORTH AS I-76
OR ROUTE 22/322.

WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-80 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF. SUNDAYS
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE
ELEVATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT TEMPS TO NR 70F.
WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE OVR THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS BROAD
TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES COULD PRODUCE SCT MAINLY AFTN SHRA. GEFS MEANS TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BRIEF WARMUP LIKELY
ARND FRIDAY AHEAD OF REINFORCING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER. AFTER SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WEST AND NORTH...VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO 10G20KT DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME MVFR CIGS SLIDE IN TO
SOUTHERN TIER ON SUN.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR SOUTHERN TIER...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON THRU WED...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR