000 FXUS61 KCTP 080827 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 327 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU TODAY. CHALLENGES FOR TODAY RESIDE ARND DEW PT AND MAX TEMPS. A SLUG OF CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LAURELS/ALLEGHENIES SHUD QUICKLY SCOUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SUSQ-VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION. LLVL/S REMAIN DRY WITH FURTHER SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED ARND 18Z...AS MIXED LYR INCREASES TO ARND 2KFT AGL. AS A RESULT OF THE EFFICIENT SOLAR HEATING...DRY BNDRY LYR...MAX TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED. IT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ- VALLEY TO SEE 70 FOR SOME SITES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... CONTINUED DRY WX OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT FROM THE SOUTH. ATMOS PARCELS WILL REMAIN PARCHED...DECENT NOCTURNAL RADIATION WILL BE IN STORE OVERNIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT COMPARED TO CLIMO...ATTM EXPECT U30S-L40S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC AND UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SLIDES TO THE EAST A BIT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 8H TEMPS GET INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND 5H HGHTS RISE TO 585DAM. MAXES ON MON AND TUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMALS WITH 60S AND EVEN A FEW 70F READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE SRN TIER MON. EXPECT M50S N AND M/U60S ON TUES. TIMING ON THE WEAK FRONT VARIES A BIT AT THIS RANGE...BUT MOST MEMBERS PUT IT INTO OUR NWRN COS BY 18Z TUES. PWATS BARELY GET TO AN INCH AND LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO LOW CHC POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD DIE/DIFFUSE BY THE END OF THE DAY TUE SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD. THEREFORE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER 30-40 POPS IN THE N/NW TUES. NOW FOR TUES NIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE FM HURR IDA WILL PROBABLY ADVECT NE THROUGH THE SERN STATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPCHG 5H TROF MOVING THRU THE MS/OH VLYS. MOST MED RANGE MDLS/MEMBERS SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE MSTR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE S/E OF THE CWA. PER PLUMES...VERY FEW GEFS MEMBERS MAKE MEAS PCPN IN LNS/MDT TUES NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR TUES NIGHT AREAWIDE WITH THE FRONT AND TROP MSTR PUTTING THE SQUEEZE ON US. ANOTHER MASSIVE/DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO SHUNT ANY TROP MSTR TO OUR EAST. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NCENT US AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDS SHUD DOMINATE AIRFIELDS THRU 12Z...HOWEVER SOME ISO MVFR CIGS COULD RESULT ACROSS LOWER SUSQ-VALLEY FROM NARROW STRATUS DECK. THEN VFR CONDS RETURN TO ALL AIRFIELDS FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANY CLOUDS ACROSS NW FROM A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BE ABV 5KFT AGL. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...VFR CHC MVFR CIGS. LATE TUE ISO SHRA. WED-THU...VFR PATCHY MVFR CIGS. ISO SHRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...BEACHLER SHORT TERM...BEACHLER LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER AVIATION...BEACHLER/MARTIN