000 FGUS74 KCRP 291616 ESFCRP TXZ229>234-239>247-301200- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1116 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BUT DEVELOP OVER THE VICTORIA AREA AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND... SYNOPSIS... MAY IS ONE OF THE WETTER MONTHS OVER SOUTH TEXAS...AND WHILE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIMITED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA. SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAVE RECEIVED MORE THAN TWICE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION NORMAL FOR THEIR AREA DURING MAY...WHILE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA...RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. AS A RESULT...DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAVE IMPROVED SINCE MID MAY...WHILE DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOW EXIST OVER THE VICTORIA AREA AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND. SPECIFICALLY...THE FOLLOWING DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER SOUTH TEXAS... EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHERN WEBB AND DUVAL COUNTIES...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A MIRANDO CITY TO REALITOS TO CONCEPTION TO FALFURRIAS LINE... MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST NEAR AND EAST OF A KINGSVILLE TO AQUA DULCE TO MATHIS TO BEEVILLE TO CHARCO LINE...AS WELL AS NEAR AND WEST OF AQUILARES TO FREER TO LOMA ALTA TO TILDEN TO MILLETT LINE... SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST BETWEEN THE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AREA AND NORTH OF THE EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITION AREA... ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTAL BEND REGION OF SOUTH TEXAS. FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX,S OR FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY GRAPHIC FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS...WITH THE GREATEST ANOMALIES OVER THE VICTORIA AREA AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND. ACCORDING TO THE MAY 28 TEXAS A & M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM CROP AND WEATHER REPORT...WARM TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO STRESS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK. COTTON BLOOMED IN EARLY FIELDS...AND SOME SORGHUM FIELDS CHANGED COLORS. PRODUCERS WERE SUPPLEMENTALLY FEEDING CATTLE DUE TO THE LACK OF GRAZING AREAS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU (ALL LOWER CASE). FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... OVERALL...A MODERATE FIRE DANGER EXISTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AS FRONTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AND HUMIDITIES BEGIN TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERION...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE WILDFIRES WILL DIMINISH. STILL...IN SOME LOCATIONS WHERE RAINFALL IS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND FUELS ARE VERY DRY...WILDFIRES CAN OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF HUMAN NEGLIGENCE IS INVOLVED. AS OF MAY 28...THE HIGHEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (600 TO 700) WERE LOCATED OVER DUVAL...JIM WELLS...LIVE OAK...BEE...KLEBERG AND GOLIAD COUNTIES. THE REMAINING COUNTIES HAVE INDICES BETWEEN 500 AND 600 (SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/KBDI_DAILY/KBDICOUNTY.PNG). INDICES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... RECENT WIDESPREAD ONE TO THREE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NUECES RIVER BASIN HAS HELPED TO KEEP THE LEVELS AT CHOKE CANYON AND LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI FROM FALLING MORE RAPIDLY THAN NORMAL...GIVEN THE INCREASE IN WATER USAGE. AS OF MAY 29...THE LEVEL AT CHOKE CANYON DAM WAS 218.7 FEET (93.6 PERCENT)...WITH LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI AT 92.5 FEET (89.2 PERCENT). THE COMBINED SYSTEM CAPACITY STANDS AT 92.4 PERCENT...WHICH IS 1.4 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER THAN ON MAY 16. LAKE AMISTAD CONTINUES TO FALL SLOWLY...WITH THE LATEST LEVEL AT 1099.6 FEET (ABOUT 69 PERCENT CAPACITY)...OR 1.2 FEET LOWER THAN ON MAY 16. COLETO CREEK RESERVOIR ALSO FELL SLIGHTLY...WITH THE LATEST LEVEL AT 97.0 FEET. RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS... ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON MAY 28... (HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG)...BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...LA SALLE...WEBB...LIVE OAK...BEE...NUECES AND JIM WELLS. RESIDENTS IN COUNTIES NOT IN BURN BANS SHOULD CONTACT COUNTY OFFICIALS BEFORE BURNING TO ENSURE OUTDOOR BURNING IS ALLOWED FOR THEIR LOCATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGAN. TO CONSERVE WATER...LAWNS SHOULD BE WATERED ONLY BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 AM AND WHEN NEEDED. FINALLY... MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DISCARD LIGHTED CIGARETTES FROM THEIR VEHICLES. OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE EIGHT TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM JUNE 5 THROUGH JUNE 11 EXPECTS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD JUNE THROUGH AUGUST SHOWS THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES. HOWEVER...THE SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST CONTINUES TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS. THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE JUNE 15. $$ GW