000 FXUS64 KCRP 161007 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 507 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)...APOLOGIZE FOR THE AFD DELAY. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW OFFSHORE WITH TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND...AND LAST IMPULSE PRODUCING ELEVATED SHOWERS FROM COTULLA TO HEBRONVILLE. 00Z GFS AND NAM DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE COMPLEX THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE BASICALLY THROWN THESE MODELS AND CORRESPONDING MOS OUT FOR POPS...WITH FORECAST BASED UPON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WOULD EXCEPT BACK EDGE OF PRECIP AROUND A LIVE OAK TO JIM WELLS LINE BY 12Z AND OFFSHORE BY 14-15Z. GRADED POPS EARLY THIS MORNING HIGHEST ACROSS THE EAST AND LOWEST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER SO WELL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 PERCENT. WITH FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND RAIN COOLED AIR...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TODAY. && .LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN HOW WARM WILL IT GET DURING THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH STILL HANGS OUT TO THE WEST AND MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME JET DYNAMICS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE BASED AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTH...SO ANY RAINFALL REMAINS ELEVATED. CONFIDENCE IN A LOT OF RAIN IS NOT GREAT...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND WE HAVE BEEN CALLING FOR RAINFALL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT SCENARIO WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT...BEST SHOT WILL BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE SOME WEAK UPSLOPE WILL RESULT ALONG WITH MINOR THETA-E ADVECTION. ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ONLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AND DAY SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN SHOULD TREND CONTINUE BUT FEEL SINCE TROUGH REMAINS OUT TO THE WEST NEED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE. MAIN PART OF TROUGH MOVES EAST BY SUNDAY WITH PART OF UPPER LOW RETROGRADING SO RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END AS UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL. AS A RESULT...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AND THUS A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE DURING THE WEEK. WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING (DRAINAGE WIND) SHOULD HELP TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD MORNING TO BELOW GUIDANCE LEVELS AT KCRP...AND GENERALLY HAVE GONE MORE ON THE LOW SIDE OF/SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE GOOD WARM UP DURING THE WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AGAIN ON HANDLING UPPER TROUGH MID WEEK. IN SHORT...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND RELATIVELY DRY ECMWF...THE LATTER MODEL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IF GFS IS CORRECT...THEN IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THAT SCENARIO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 79 61 83 61 89 / 60 20 20 20 10 VICTORIA 80 56 85 59 89 / 60 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 79 64 82 65 95 / 30 30 20 20 10 ALICE 81 58 85 61 92 / 50 30 20 20 10 ROCKPORT 80 63 83 65 86 / 60 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 81 56 85 59 93 / 30 20 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 81 59 84 61 89 / 60 30 20 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 78 65 82 66 85 / 60 20 20 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ JR/76...SHORT TERM GW/86...LONG TERM