000
FXUS64 KCRP 091959
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
259 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE CENTER OF STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE INTO OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DRY
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LITTLE CHANGE
SEEN IN HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AND CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS SATURDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY.
GFS SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT LOW THAT
WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE DEPTH MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 
INCHES AT BEST. WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE 
WEEKEND AS THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
WARM BUT THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST.  
IF ANY CONVECTION DOES FIRE OVER THE WEEKEND...IT WILL LIKELY BE
VERY ISOLATED. AS THE TUTT LOW MOVES BY ON MONDAY THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
00Z GFS SHOWED MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND
BY WEDNESDAY BUT THE 12Z RUN IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. FOR THE
SAKE OF NOT YOYOING THE FORECAST...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE 
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS IS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS RUNNING AT CAUTION LEVELS,
OTHERWISE WINDS BELOW CAUTION ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  97  77  96  78  /  10  10  10  20  10 
VICTORIA          77  99  76  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10 
LAREDO            81 106  81 104  81  /   0  10   0  10  10 
ALICE             78 102  77 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10 
ROCKPORT          80  95  80  93  80  /  10  10  10  20  10 
COTULLA           77 104  76 102  76  /   0  10   0  10  10 
KINGSVILLE        78 100  77  98  78  /  10  10  10  20  10 
NAVY CORPUS       80  93  80  92  80  /  10  10  10  20  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM 
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JAR/19...SHORT TERM
TT/89...LONG TERM