000 FXUS64 KCRP 091147 AAA AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 547 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009 .DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION. && .AVIATION...STRATUS/LOW MVFR CEILINGS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. PATCHY FOG ALSO PROVIDING MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 16Z...THEN CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO AROUND 2 KFT UNTIL AROUND 20Z. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS...COULD SEE RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOP AROUND 09Z TUESDAY. MVFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN THE FOG BUT IFR/LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE VCT AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST AREA IN SUBSIDENT REGION BEHIND THIS FEATURE BUT MODELS SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. POPS ARE CLOSER TO THE GFS GUIDANCE...NAM IS WAY OVERDONE. EXPECT THE CLOUDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BY TONIGHT AS DOWNGLIDE/DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL BY TUESDAY BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL BEND. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING AT THE SURFACE. THEN...BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AND BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM ON SATURDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF PER LATEST MODEL RUN AND PROGS MORE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH...WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BACK TO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH STREAMER LIKE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER AS THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER AROUND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES ABSORBED BY HURRICANE IDA LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING INTO SOUTH TEXAS THUS MAINTAINING THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY. HIGH SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE SLOW TO ABATE AND NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS CONTINUING...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TIDES...CONTINUED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. LARGE SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH WESTWARD PROPAGATING SWELLS WITH PERIODS AROUND 10 SECONDS...THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AROUND THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TIDES LEVELS ARE ABOUT 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL/2.5 FEET ABOVE MSL ALONG THE GULF BEACHES WHILE BAY LEVELS HAVE RISEN TO ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED/1.5-2 FEET ABOVE MSL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 78 62 82 58 79 / 20 0 0 0 0 VICTORIA 75 58 80 55 78 / 20 0 0 0 0 LAREDO 81 62 85 59 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 ALICE 80 60 83 56 80 / 20 0 0 0 0 ROCKPORT 77 63 80 62 79 / 20 0 0 0 0 COTULLA 79 58 83 54 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 KINGSVILLE 79 62 83 57 80 / 20 0 0 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 77 65 79 63 78 / 20 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ TMT/89...SHORT TERM/AVIATION