000 FXUS61 KCLE 270900 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 400 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LAST SURFACE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA THIS MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LAST SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO TOWARD NW PA. BEST AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING EASTWARD WITH THIS TROUGH. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE REMAINED ALL RAIN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH LIFT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEED TO DIP UNDER 36 DEGREES TO BEGIN TO SEE THE RAIN MIX OF SNOW. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL LIKELY DIP TO THE MINUS 6 TO MINUS 8 RANGE. AS THIS AIR SLIDES OVER THE WARM LAKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME LAKE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. BELIEVE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SOME DRIZZLE WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAINLY EAST OF I-71 SINCE DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. ANY STEADIER SNOW WILL ONLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INLAND ASHTABULA...ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. EVEN THERE IT LOOKS AS IF THE WARM GROUND WILL LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MICHIGAN WHICH RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT HOW LONG TO LINGER THE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AT TIMES FOR NORTHWESTERN OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL INCREASE 0 TO 3 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS AT MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MAY SEE THE DRIZZLE AND SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING FOR EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED SURFACE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CUT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF FAIRLY FAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS ONLY LEAVES A FAIRLY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IF ANY OCCURS IT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN CRAWFORD AND ERIE COUNTIES IN NW PA. BELIEVE AMOUNTS WILL NEVER BE OVER AN INCH ON THE GROUND. THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A QUICK RETURN OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN AS IT ENDS MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST TODAY GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY DURING THE PERIOD. LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL HAVE BIG DIFFERENCES MOVING LOW NORTH OUT OF THE GULF. THE GFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM UP THE EAST COAST LEAVING THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER BRINGS THE LOW UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WARM SO MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN BETTER LATELY. TEMPS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT ON TOP OF MFD...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. PRECIPITATION IS STILL PREDOMINATELY RAIN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW BEFORE 09Z. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE SNOW BELT EAST OF CLEVELAND AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 6C TO MINUS 8C BY 12Z AND LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO SET UP. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND IMPROVE TO VFR FROM THE WEST TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS ALL RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODELS STILL NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE LAKE BY MIDDAY. WEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PICK UP. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE NW DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 25 KNOTS BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LAKE. THE SMALL CRAFT IN PLACE LOOKS REASONABLE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SW. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL ANOTHER A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. W TO NW FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT AS WELL. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME SW ON TUESDAY AS WEAK RIDGING OCCURS FROM THE SOUTH. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...DJB MARINE...KUBINA