000 FXUS61 KCLE 091149 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 649 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDED BACK INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...LINGERING OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDING BACK INTO THE AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREAS WEATHER TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE...PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS THAT ARE IN THE LOWER 50S. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY'S RECORDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MFD AND YNG HAVE RECORDS OF 72 FOR TODAY AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BEING BROKEN BUT MAY FALL JUST SHORT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ALSO ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES AND A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...STILL A LITTLE ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA...I DIDN'T THINK IT QUITE CAPTURED THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN START TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST BUT THE RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEW 00Z GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. FRIDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP MENTION FOR SATURDAY AS THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. IF NEW ECMWF IS TO BE BELIEVED...EVEN SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING DRY. LATEST GFS STILL BRINGS FRONTAL SYSTEM IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALREADY HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE MENTION IN FOR NOW. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE NEW TAF PACKAGE. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. NEW MODELS COMING IN KEEP THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. WILL GIVE KTOL A SLIGHT MENTION OF SHRA BUT OTHERWISE ALL AREAS WILL BE DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT. SIMILAR TO 06Z PACKAGE HAVE GIVEN ALL SITES A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. LIGHT N TO NE FLOW EXPECTED THE FRONT. OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... THE WEATHER ON LAKE ERIE WILL BE UNUSUALLY QUIET FOR NOVEMBER. S TO SW FLOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME NE ON TUESDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST TO THE NW OF THE LAKE. WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RANDEL NEAR TERM...RANDEL SHORT TERM...RANDEL LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...KUBINA