000 FXUS61 KCLE 061758 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 158 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CUMULUS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE FORECAST TO CLEAN OUT MORNING WORDING. LATEST RUC INDICATES WITH INCREASED HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT LIFTED INDICES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -2 AND -3 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TARGET FOR HIGHS TODAY SO NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS APPEAR TO BE HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK TO BE DRY. A NICE VORT IS STILL ON TRACK TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. SIMILAR TODAY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AND CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT REMAINED COMPLETELY DRY. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOL. DON'T BUY MODEL DEPICTION OF PRECIP FORMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINK MOST OF THIS IS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK UPSTREAM. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM UP TO BEGIN. READINGS WILL GET TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO WITH NO MORE THAN LOW CHANCES POPS FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PROGS LOOK SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. NOT SURE OF THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT OR ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT MAY RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RIDGE ALOFT PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN SLOWLY SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GET THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A WARM DAY ASSUMING THE FRONT IS NOT THROUGH YET. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AREA TO DAMPEN THE TEMPS SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE RATHER HUMID...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT HAD MUCH OF THIS SUMMER. FORECAST FOR NOW WILL ASSUME THE FRONT IS THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR TODAY. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE NORTHWEST PA. JUST SOME CUMULUS ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. && .MARINE... WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. OCCASIONAL SURFACE TROUGHS WILL TYPICALLY ROTATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE... ESPECIALLY THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH TROUGH THERE COULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS AND AN INCREASE IN WIND. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY OF THESE EVENTS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE AND WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA... AT LEAST ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND THE SOUTH FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KOSARIK