000 FXUS61 KCAR 080656 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 256 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CREST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PTRN THRU THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AND RDGS... WEAK SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS NRN MAINE AND IS PRODUCING SOME CLDS AND A FEW LGT SHOWERS NRN SECTIONS... THIS XPCTD TO EXIT THE FA ERLY THIS AM W/ A WEAK SHORT WAVE RDG FCST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AM INTO THE ERLY AFTN. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF PROGGED TO SLIP JUST N OF THE AREA TNGT W/ A RETURN OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE RDG ACROSS THE FA BY ERLY TUE... NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER VARIABLE WX PICTURE ACROSS OUR FA FOR THE NXT 24 HRS W/ PERIODS OF CLDS AND JUST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS NRN AREAS W/ LESSER CLDS AND NIL POPS SRN AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SUPPORTING A MODERATELY STRONG AUTUMNAL TYPE LOW THAT WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL BE THEN INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR WEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS BRINGING RAIN INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN SPREADING A BAND OF RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. A COOLER EARLY AUTUMN AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY DOWNEAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE ALLAGASH VALLEY AREA WHERE WINDS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF DECOUPLING AND THE GROUND REMAINS DRIER THAN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE INLAND FROM THE COAST IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLY. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT LAKES AND RIVERS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PREDOM VFR CONDS XPCTD NXT 24 HRS W/ SOME PTCHY MVFR CONDS ACROSS THE N ERLY THIS AM W/ A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS THESE TAF SITES... CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND BAND OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEK. && .MARINE... CURRENT SEAS 7-8 FT AND THIS IN LINE W/ CURRENT WNAWAVE GUIDANCE... GUIDANCE DOES NOT BRING SEAS DOWN BLO SCA UNTIL LATER THIS AM SO HAVE XTND SCA THRU 15Z... WNDS AND SEAS THEN XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRU 12Z TUE... A STRONG GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 7 FT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...KHW SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...KHW MARINE...KHW/BLOOMER