000
FXUS61 KCAR 061844
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
244 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH LATER
TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. A 500HPA CLOSED LOW 
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. OVER THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL
MAINTAIN EARLY THEN SLOWLY FILL AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOADED GRIDS USING THE NAM12 FOR SKY...POP...MIN...DP...AND
WINDS. LOADED CARWRF GRIDS FOR QPF. ADJUSTED POPS GRIDS TO BETTER
BLEND WITH OUR SHORT TERM GRIDS. MAINTAINED THE CURRENT MARINE
GRIDS THROUGH PERIOD FELL CURRENT FORECAST WAS STILL GOOD. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING TUESDAY...WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON RIDGING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION. COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS FROM A
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS NEAREST THE APPROACHING SURFACE/UPPER LOW. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST AREAS TO
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN DURING THE MORNING
TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST EXTENSIVE RAIN
WEDNESDAY SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS. TOTAL
RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...WITH MODELS NOT YET IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FOCUS
OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. SHOWERS COULD
LINGER EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXITING SURFACE LOW/UPPER
TROF. CLOUD COVER SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE
SURFACE SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH MOST PUSH
THROUGH A WET COLD FRONT OF SOME SORT. THIS CONTINUES THE TREND OF
MODEL INCONSISTENCY UNDER THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING WEATHER
REGIME. IN ALL A LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL EXISTS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. 
&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN AND FOG. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. 
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA EXPECTED. 

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS...RAIN AND FOG TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...LERICOS
AVIATION...NORTON
MARINE...NORTON/NORCROSS