000 FXUS61 KCAR 240721 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 221 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY THEN SWING EAST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY THEN THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF-SHORE SO CLOUDS/POPS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND SREF FOR POP GRIDS. FOR SKY COVER WILL USE GEM WHICH LOOKS MOST REASONABLE. THE GMOS WAS USED FOR WIND...TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM AND GFS FOR QPF. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA WITH THE NAM SHOWING THE MOST...A CLOUDY DAY...AND THE GFS SHOWING THE LEAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER... EVEN THE GFS SHOWS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK...SO HEDGED SLIGHTLY MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT RISK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULLING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE AS LARGE TROUGH BEGINS MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST SHIFTING FLOW TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF IT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A DEEP AND STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL LOW CENTERS WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHICH ONE BECOMES DOMINANT...BUT THERE'S GREATER INDICATION THAT THE DOMINANT LOW MAY END UP TRACKING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. MODESTLY COOLER AIR IS POISED ACROSS QUEBEC. A TRACK WELL TO OUR EAST MAY PULL DOWN SOME OF THAT COLDER AIR BRINGING A SYSTEM THAT COULD START AS A COLD RAIN AND PERHAPS CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN AREAS...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WOULD MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM WINDS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCAR AND KPQI. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF AREA WILL GIVE IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOW CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WOULD THEN LIKELY LOWER TO IFR FRIDAY AND REMAIN IFR INTO SATURDAY AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS UP FROM THE SOUTH. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL BLEND THE NAM12 AND GFS40 TO INITIALIZE THE WIND GRIDS. WILL INCREASE WIND SPEED WITH WINDS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. FOR WAVES HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS WITH WNA/4. SPECTRAL DATA INDICATES EQUAL BLEND OF NORTHEAST WIND WAVE AND SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM FETCH EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. OVERALL WAVE MODEL LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY MODIFICATIONS. SHORT TERM: A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE MID ATLC REGION WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AN SCA...AND POSSIBLY A MINIMAL GALE...FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WOULD BE IN NORTHWESTERLIES BEHIND THE LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...MIGNONE MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER