823 FGUS72 KCAE 041439 ESFCAE GAC033-073-181-189-245-SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057- 061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085-061445- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1039 AM EDT THU APR 4 2013 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... THIS WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS FOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING: SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF R. B. RUSSELL LAKE AND UPSTREAM FROM BURTONS FERRY... THE EDISTO RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE BAMBERG...ORANGEBURG COUNTY LINE IN SOUTH CAROLINA... THE SANTEE RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE CLARENDON/BERKELEY COUNTY LINE AND DOWNSTREAM ON THE SALUDA AND BROAD RIVERS AT THE GREENWOOD/SALUDA...LAURENS/NEWBERRY...UNION/FAIRFIELD AND THE CHESTER/FAIRFIELD COUNTY LINES IN SOUTH CAROLINA... THE WATEREE RIVER SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT FALLS SOUTH CAROLINA... AND THE PEE DEE RIVER BASIN IN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTH CAROLINA. ...SUMMARY OF RECENT WEATHER EVENTS... OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS ENDING LAST NIGHT...THE AREA RECEIVED NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THERE WAS A MINOR FLOOD ON THE STEVENS CREEK IN WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. ...SOIL MOISTURE... THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON APRIL 04 2013 FOR DATA THROUGH APRIL 02 2013 SHOWED IMPROVEMENT FROM THE MARCH 19 2013 ISSUANCE. ...DETAILS... D2...SEVERE DROUGHT...WAS REMOVED FROM THE AREA. D1...MODERATE DROUGHT...COVERED LINCOLN...MCDUFFIE...COLUMBIA AND RICHMOND COUNTIES IN GEORGIA. D1...EXTENDED INTO WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ABBEVILLE COUNTY TO EASTERN CHER0KEE COUNTY TO NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTHEAST MARLBORO COUNTY TO CENTRAL DARLINGTON COUNTY TO FAR SOUTHEAST LAURENS COUNTY TO NORTHWEST SALUDA COUNTY TO FAR SOUTHERN LEXINGTON COUNTY TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN BAMBERG COUNTY TO SOUTHEAST ALLENDALE COUNTY TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALLENDALE COUNTY TO FAR SOUTHWEST BARNWELL COUNTY TO EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. D0...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...SURROUNDED THE D1 AREA...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY TO NORTHWEST CHEROKEE COUNTY TO NORTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NORTH CENTRAL HORRY COUNTY TO CENTRAL LEE COUNTY TO CENTRAL CALHOUN TO NORTHEAST CLARENDON COUNTY TO FAR NORTHWEST COLLETON COUNTY TO EASTERN BEAUFORT COUNTY TO THE COAST. THIS INCLUDED FAR NORTHERN BURKE COUNTY IN GEORGIA. THE REST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND BURKE COUNTY IN GEORGIA WAS DROUGHT FREE. GO TO DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/MONITOR.HTML FOR MORE DETAILS. ...RIVER AND STREAM FLOW... THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE USGS AS OF APRIL 04 2013 ARE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN. THE ONLY AREAS WITH BELOW NORMAL FLOWS ARE THE BASINS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND RIVER BASINS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF SOUTH CAROLINA...BETWEEN 10 AND 24 PERCENTILE RANGE. ...RESERVOIR LEVELS... MOST RESERVOIRS IN THE TABLE BELOW SHOW RISES WITH LAKE THURMOND RISING OVER 2 FEET ABOVE THE LEVEL RECORDED ON MARCH 21 2013. ONLY LAKE WATEREE RECORDED A DROP IN LAKE LEVEL. HOWEVER LAKE WATEREE CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE THE TARGET LEVEL SET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LAKE THURMOND IS NOW LESS THAN 3 FEET BELOW AVERAGE. LAKE RUSSELL LAKE THURMOND MARCH 21 2013 474.50 FEET 321.77 FEET APRIL 04 2013 474.52 FEET 324.52 FEET DIFFERENCE PLUS 0.02 FEET PLUS 2.50 FEET LAKE GREENWOOD LAKE MURRAY MARCH 21 2013 437.56 FEET 358.24 FEET APRIL 04 2013 438.48 FEET 358.29 FEET DIFFERENCE PLUS 0.92 FEET PLUS 0.05 FEET LAKE MARION LAKE WATEREE MARCH 21 2013 75.38 FEET 97.19 FEET APRIL 04 2013 75.40 FEET 97.08 FEET DIFFERENCE PLUS 0.02 FEET MINUS 0.11 FEET THE LEVEL OF LAKE THURMOND WAS 2.35 FEET BELOW AVERAGE AND THE LEVEL OF LAKE RUSSELL WAS 0.40 FEET ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LEVEL OF LAKE WATEREE WAS 0.08 FEET ABOVE THE 97.0 FOOT TARGET LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DATA FOR THIS SEGMENT WAS GATHERED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE UNITED STATES ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS AND DUKE ENERGY. ...CLIMATE OUTLOOK... THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THE APRIL OUTLOOK LEANS TOWARD EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED. SEE CPC WEB PAGE AT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS. ...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS... NEAR TERM...SEE THE ZONE AND GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AT WEATHER.GOV/CAE. ...8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK... THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 11 2013 TO APRIL 17 2013 CALLS FOR A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 11 2013 TO APRIL 17 2013 CALLS FOR A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. ...MONTHLY OUTLOOK... THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2013 CALLS FOR A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2013 CALL FOR A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. ...THREE MONTHLY OUTLOOK... THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL...MAY AND JUNE OF 2013 CALLS FOR A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THE THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR APRIL...MAY AND JUNE OF 2013 CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA WHERE THERE IS A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ...SUMMARY... WITH PLENTIFUL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 MONTHS...STREAMFLOWS ARE BETTER THAN THE FLOWS IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR...BUT STILL 54 PERCENT OF RANKED GAGES ARE REPORTING FLOWS IN THE LESS THAN 25 PERCENTILE RANGE. CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE IN THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE CHANCES OF FLOODING DECREASES. WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST BY THE OUTLOOKS THROUGH APRIL...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL. THIS WILL BE THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2013. ...ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... DATA AND OTHER INFORMATION USED IN THIS STATEMENT CAME FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE U.S. ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS...THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR...THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...DUKE ENERGY...SOUTH CAROLINA ENERGY AND GAS...SANTEE COOPER AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. MORE INFORMATION ON FLOODING CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES: OTHER FLOODING INFORMATION: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAE UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES ACROSS THE TOP MENU BAR. FLOOD OUTLOOKS: WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK FLOOD SAFETY: WWW.FLOODSAFETY.NOAA.GOV/ ...QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK PLEASE CONTACT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2909 AVIATION WAY WEST COLUMBIA SC 29170 PHONE: 803-822-8135 INTERNET ADDRESS CAEWX@NOAA.GOV LAMBERTY $$