420 
FXUS62 KCAE 031355
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
955 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT...
AND PERHAPS TROPICAL MOISTURE...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...RANGING
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCHES. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WAS OFF THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGE INDICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY...ALLOWING A MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
WE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND NIGHT-TIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCLEMENT WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 

THE GFS HAS BEEN DEEPER AND EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE
TROPICAL LOW BEING DRAWN INTO THE GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND. WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/WPC MODELS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SYSTEM
COULD BE DRAWN UP INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT.
TIMING AND INTENSITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY
THEN COOLING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS CLOUDS MAY
LINGER AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE INDICATES SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE MIDLANDS. MAINLY VFR 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG 
AGS/OGB FRIDAY MORNING. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING 
FOG THROUGH SAT. STRATUS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING 
MOISTURE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...POSSIBLY TROPICAL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$