619 
FXUS62 KCAE 251411 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1011 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A VERY COOL START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT
CLOSE TO 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS COLUMBIA METRO TIED ITS
RECORD LOW OF 45 PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1967. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM QUICKLY DUE TO SOLAR INSOLATION BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY. LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY BUT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE
OF THE INITIAL DRYNESS AND JUST WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALL OF THE
MOS DISPLAYS POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT APPEAR TO DOMINATE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONTINUE TO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  WITH
SOME CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION 
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HC
NEAR TERM...HC