951 FXUS61 KBTV 200455 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1255 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1242 AM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL...THOUGH LIKELY IN LESS AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS...AND MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 414 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY AND AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 414 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL PIECES S/W ENERGY IN FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT...AND POSITION OF BEST RH IN DAYS 4 THRU 7. IN ADDITION...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO REGARDS OF SFC WARM FRNT POSITION SAT/SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA AND VERY WARM 85/925MB TEMPS...WHILE ECWMF/GEM SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACRS OUR CWA THRU SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY MONDAY. WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH SHOW 925MB TEMPS BTWN 16-18C ON SAT/SUN...INSTEAD OF THE GFS WHICH INDICATES TEMPS BTWN 22-24C...THESE COOLER TEMPS WL RESULT IN HIGHS L/M 70S MTNS TO U70S TO L80S WARMER VALLEYS. THE COMBINATION OF SFC BOUNDARY...S/W ENERGY ALOFT...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHEST CHC POPS ATTM LOOKS TO BE LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SFC WARM FRNT LIFTS NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE WAA SIGNATURE IN THE THICKNESS FIELDS AND S/W ENERGY SLIDING OVER DEVELOPING RIDGE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A MCS DEVELOPS ACRS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SLIDES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR MONDAY...TYPICAL AIRMASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...FROM SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY AND WEAK S/W ENERGY RIDING ALONG PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. WL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN FCST TO COVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS. TUES INTO WEDS...WEAK RIDGE BREAKS DOWNS...AS S/W TROF DEVELOPS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS...COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND INTERACTING WITH INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE MORE CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. OVERALL ACTIVE TIME PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH DAILY CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE MON/TUES WL BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...AND MAYBE A FEW L90S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK 06-12Z...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRIER THAN YESTERDAY AND IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO REACH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS SE 7-10KTS AT KRUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...ALONG WITH THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS BY LATE FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WARM FRNT. THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...BUT MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WL BE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS BTWN 17Z-23Z EACH DAY. IF A STORM IMPACTS A TAF SITE AND SOME RAIN OCCURS...PATCHY FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING HRS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .CLIMATE... A FEW RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 20TH MAY BE APPROACHED OR REACHED TONIGHT. KMPV (MONTPELIER)- 40F (1956,1948) KMSS (MASSENA)- 40F (1967) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...BANACOS/TABER CLIMATE...WFO BTV