000 AXUS74 KBRO 192206 AAB DGTBRO TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-505-200300- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED FOR OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 400 PM CDT THU NOV 19 2009 ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LINGER OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... SYNOPSIS... MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS ON THE EVENING OF THE 7TH, WITH LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 8TH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF NEAR ONE INCH TOTALS OVER CAMERON COUNTY. ACCORDING THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR, SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D2) PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF JIM HOGG, BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES. MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) CONDITIONS WERE INDICATED OVER ZAPATA, AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF JIM HOGG, BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS, INCLUDING PASTURES AND RANGELAND. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FIRE DANGER IMPACTS. WILDFIRE DANGER IS CONSIDER LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ARE GENERALLY 300 TO 500 OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS, WITH 600 TO 700 (KBDI) OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS. COUNTY BURN BANS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, STARR, HIDALGO, WILLACY COUNTIES. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...AND TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE AGENTS..."SOIL MOISTURE WAS ADEQUATE ACROSS THE REGION, AS COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES HELPED CONSERVE MOISTURE. HARVESTING OF SUGARCANE, CITRUS, BABY-LEAF SPINACH AND CABBAGE WAS ONGOING, ALONG WITH IRRIGATION OF ONIONS, CARROTS AND CABBAGE. RANGELAND AND PASTURES THROUGHOUT THE REGION SHOWED SIGNS OF DORMANCY. RANCHERS CONTINUED WITH MINIMAL SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF LIVESTOCK. WATER RESTRICTIONS. ACCORDING TO THE STATE OF TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ)...THERE ARE CURRENTLY 3 PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS IN HIDALGO COUNTY, 2 IN STARR COUNTY AND ONE IN ZAPATA COUNTY UNDER A "WATER SHORTAGE WATCH". CLIMATE SUMMARY... LITTLE OR NO RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE MONTH, WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED FALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, CURRENT MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 11 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... ...METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK... NOVEMBER 14TH THROUGH NOVEMBER 28TH... MODERATE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NOVEMBER 15TH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON NOVEMBER 16TH WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM NOVEMBER 17TH THROUGH NOVEMBER 20TH RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT TEXAS FROM NOVEMBER 20TH THROUGH NOVEMBER 28TH RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS DURING THIS UPCOMING TWO WEEK PERIOD WILL PROVIDE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEK PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING PERIOD RANGE IN THE MID 70S. AVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THIS SAME PERIOD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR DECEMBER OF 2009 THROUGH JANUARY AND FEBRUARY OF 2010...DERIVED FROM GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT THE PACIFIC EL NINO EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WINTER OF 2009/2010. THE PRESENCE OF THE PACIFIC EL NINO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WINTER MONTHS OF 2009/2010 FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ANY RAINFALL ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS THROUGH FEBRUARY 2010 WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SLOW BUT STEADY IMPROVEMENT FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH FEBRUARY OF 2010. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... FALCON AND AMISTAD RESERVOIRS PROVIDE MUCH OF THE WATER FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STORAGE AT FALCON RESERVOIR INDICATED A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO WEEKS AND IS CURRENTLY AT 63 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION. STORAGE AT AMISTAD RESERVOIR IS ALSO HOLDING STEADY AT 96 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION LEVEL. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 27TH 2009...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO. YOU MAY ALSO VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV AND GET THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RESERVOIR LEVELS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION AT WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...THE USDA...STATE AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE DISTRICT AGENTS, TEXAS FOREST SERVICE, STATE AND FEDERAL WILDLIFE DEPARTMENTS, TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ) AND IBWC. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 20 SOUTH VERMILLION ROAD BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS 78521 PHONE: 956-504-1432 EMAIL: SR-BRO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$ VEGA/SPEECE