000 AXUS74 KBRO 261131 DGTBRO TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-505-262300- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 630 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009 ...MODERATE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... SYNOPSIS... HOT, BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE 23RD AND 24TH. MOST OF THE REGION RECEIVED SOME PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGED HALF AN INCH OR LESS, WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING ONE INCH TOTALS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO, WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA DIMINISHING. THE RECENT RAINS PROVIDED LITTLE RELIEF TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF BROOKS, MUCH OF KENEDY, AND ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF WILLACY COUNTY. EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS EXTEND OVER JIM HOGG, WESTERN WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES. MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) STRETCHES ACROSS ZAPATA, STARR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO MAINLY AFFECT AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS, INCLUDING CROPS, PASTURES AND GRASSLANDS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FIRE DANGER IMPACTS. RECENT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY PROVIDED LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WILDFIRE DANGER. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ACCORDING TO THE STATE OF TEXAS FOREST SERVICE, CURRENT WILDFIRE DANGER IS CONSIDERED MODERATE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ARE CURRENTLY 600 TO 700 OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. COUNTY BURN BANS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, STARR, HIDALGO, WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION DURING ALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES. USE SPECIAL CAUTION WHEN USING FIREWORKS DURING UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. CURRENT DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT DROUGHT IMPACTS ARE BEING COMPARED TO THE DROUGHT OF 2006. ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...SOIL MOISTURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS SEVERELY DRY. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL...AND TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE AGENTS..."TOP SOIL MOISTURE WAS SHORT TO VERY SHORT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. CORN AND SORGHUM MATURED AND COTTON BEGAN SETTING BOILS. THE SORGHUM CROP IN CERTAIN PARTS OF THE REGION WAS IN VERY POOR CONDITION. IRRIGATED COTTON WAS DOING VERY WELL. CANTALOUPE HARVESTING WAS ACTIVE. HARVESTING OF SORGHUM WAS ONGOING IN SOME PARTS. NATIVE RANGELAND AND PASTURE CONDITIONS DETERIORATED. FORAGE FOR LIVESTOCK WAS BECOMING SCARCE, FORCING PRODUCERS TO CONTINUE SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING." DAILY EVAPORATION RATES OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE AVERAGING NEAR HALF AN INCH. WATER RESTRICTIONS. ACCORDING TO THE STATE OF TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ)...THERE ARE CURRENTLY 3 PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS IN HIDALGO COUNTY AND ONE IN ZAPATA COUNTY UNDER A "WATER SHORTAGE WATCH". CLIMATE SUMMARY... RECENT RAINS ALLOWED MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS TO APPROACH THE MONTHLY NORMAL IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER, YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL AT BROWNSVILLE IS 5.70 INCHES OR 4.71 BELOW NORMAL. RAINFALL YEAR TO DATE AT HARLINGEN IS 4.79 INCHES OR 7.31 BELOW NORMAL. YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL AT MCALLEN IS 5.39 INCHES OR 4.12 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. TOWARD THE END OF JUNE, YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL AVERAGED 4 TO 7 INCHES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... JUNE 27TH THROUGH JULY 11TH...A BROAD RIDGE OF MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM JUNE 27TH THROUGH JULY 3RD MAINTAINING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH JULY 6TH INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN RETURN OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM JULY 7TH THROUGH JULY 11TH BRINGING A RETURN OF THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER. ANY OF THE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS THROUGHOUT THIS UPCOMING TWO WEEK PERIOD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH JULY 11TH. NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THIS UPCOMING PERIOD RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THIS SAME PERIOD RANGE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF JULY...AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER OF 2009...DERIVED FROM GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATE THAT ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR FIRST PART OF THE SUMMER OF 2009. HOWEVER...LONGER RANGE CLIMATIC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EL NINO EVENT TO DEVELOP IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN LATER THIS SUMMER. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE SUMMER MONTHS...THE COMBINATION OF THE ABSENCE OF LA NINA CONDITIONS...THE CONTINUING 2009 TROPICAL SEASON AND THE INCREASING SUMMER SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SEPTEMBER. ANY RAINFALL ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2009 WILL RESULT IN SOME RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH SEPTEMBER OF 2009. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... FALCON AND AMISTAD RESERVOIRS PROVIDE MUCH OF THE WATER FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. FALCON STORAGE IS AT 73 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION. STORAGE AT AMISTAD REMAINS NEAR CONSERVATION LEVEL. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY JULY 10 2009...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO. YOU MAY ALSO VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV AND GET THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RESERVOIR LEVELS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION AT WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...THE USDA...STATE AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE DISTRICT AGENTS, TEXAS FOREST SERVICE AND IBWC. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 20 SOUTH VERMILLION ROAD BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS 78521 PHONE: 956-504-1432 EMAIL: SR-BRO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$ VEGA/SPEECE