000 AXUS74 KBRO 301711 DGTBRO TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-505-310000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTED PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE 17TH THROUGH THE 24TH. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THE 25TH PROVIDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THIS EVENT AVERAGED 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THE EXTREME WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES RECEIVED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF AN INCH OR LESS. ACCORDING TO UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR...DUE TO RECENT RAINS CHANGES WERE IN ORDER FOR DROUGHT DEPICTION ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS, WITH A GENERAL 1-CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT FOR THE DROUGHT AREA. SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) CONDITIONS WERE INDICATED ACROSS NORTHERN JIM HOGG, NORTHERN BROOKS AND NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTIES. MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) CONDITIONS WERE INDICATED OVER ZAPATA, SOUTHERN JIM HOGG, SOUTHERN BROOKS AND SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTIES. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS, INCLUDING PASTURES AND RANGELAND. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FIRE DANGER IMPACTS. DUE TO PERIODS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BREEZY CONDITIONS AND YEAR TO DATE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL, WILDFIRE DANGER IS CONSIDER MODERATE OVER THE REGION. LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ARE GENERALLY 400 TO 600 OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS, WITH 600 TO 800 (KBDI) OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS. COUNTY BURN BANS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, STARR, HIDALGO, WILLACY COUNTIES. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...AND TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE AGENTS..."SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND MILD TEMPERATURES PREVAILED THROUGHOUT THE REGION. CONTINUED RAIN KEPT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS ADEQUATE FOR FALL PLANTING. RANGELAND AND PASTURE CONDITIONS REMAINED STABLE WITH SOIL TEMPERATURES FALLING. PRODUCERS DECREASED SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF LIVESTOCK DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FORAGE AVAILABILITY, BUT STOCK TANK WATER LEVELS WERE STILL LOW AT MANY RANCHES. FALL CROPS PROGRESSED WELL, ONIONS WERE PLANTED AND CITRUS HARVESTING WAS PICKING UP." WATER RESTRICTIONS. ACCORDING TO THE STATE OF TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ)...THERE ARE CURRENTLY 3 PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS IN HIDALGO COUNTY, 2 IN STARR COUNTY AND ONE IN ZAPATA COUNTY UNDER A "WATER SHORTAGE WATCH". CLIMATE SUMMARY... MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE AVERAGING 2 TO 3 INCHES, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE TO DATE IS AVERAGING 2 TO NEAR 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... ...METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK... OCTOBER 31ST THROUGH NOVEMBER 14TH... MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NOVEMBER 14TH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NOVEMBER 14TH. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEK PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING PERIOD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. AVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THIS SAME PERIOD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE REST OF NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER OF 2009 THROUGH JANUARY 2010...DERIVED FROM GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT THE PACIFIC EL NINO EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WINTER OF 2009/2010. THE PRESENCE OF THE PACIFIC EL NINO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATE AUTUMN AND WINTER MONTHS OF 2009/2010 FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ANY RAINFALL ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS THROUGH JANUARY 2010 WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SLOW BUT STEADY IMPROVEMENT FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH JANUARY OF 2010. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... FALCON AND AMISTAD RESERVOIRS PROVIDE MUCH OF THE WATER FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STORAGE AT FALCON RESERVOIR CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY AT 65 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION. STORAGE AT AMISTAD RESERVOIR IS ALSO HOLDING STEADY AT 96 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION LEVEL. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 13 2009...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO. YOU MAY ALSO VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV AND GET THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RESERVOIR LEVELS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION AT WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...THE USDA...STATE AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE DISTRICT AGENTS, TEXAS FOREST SERVICE, STATE AND FEDERAL WILDLIFE DEPARTMENTS, TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ) AND IBWC. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 20 SOUTH VERMILLION ROAD BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS 78521 PHONE: 956-504-1432 EMAIL: SR-BRO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$ VEGA/SPEECE