000 FXUS61 KBOX 060202 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1002 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AND MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FCST DEWPOINTS ARE A BLEND OF 12Z GFS MAVMOS AND THE RGEM 2M DEWS WHICH HAVE BEEN A USEFUL A CHECK IN THE SHORT TERM AGAINST THE GFS AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN IN THE LONG TERM...BOTH ARE GOOD! I JUST DONT HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE VALUE OF THE NAM SFC DEWPOINTS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS MOS AND RGEM/ECMWF. FCST SFC AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS AND MASS FIELD GUIDANCE RESPECTIVELY. FCST SKY IS A 40 30 30 BLEND OF GFS MOS...RGEM AND NAM RH ALGORITHM. FCST TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFSMOS AND THE 4AM KBOX FCST CK'D AGAINST THE RGEM AND NAM 2M TEMPS. IN ESSENCE...DO NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT GOING ON YET...WHICH MEANS CONTD NICE WX. WE HAVE A FRONT TRYING TO FORM IN THE INTERIOR OF SNE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM ESE MOVEMENT OF THE S CENTRAL CANADA CLOSED LOW BUT I DONT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MUCH CONVECTION. THIS LOW PROB THUNDER RISK WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE HWO SINCE WE CAN SEE IT DROPPING OUT OF THE FCST IN FUTURE ISSUANCE'S...TREATED SIMILAR TO OUR DAY 2 MDT RISK ISSUANCE'S FOR RIP CURRENTS THAT IS LOW PROB. HOWEVER...THIS FCST CONTD CONTINUITY OF THE PREV FCSTS...PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE 09Z AND 15Z SREF POPS AND OFFERS A LOW PROB OF A SHOWER OR TSTM CENTERED ON MON EVE DISTANT NW INTERIOR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. CLOSED LOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME I COULD SEE THE NEED FOR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE HOW UNSTABLE WE/LL BE ABLE TO GET TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE MAY MUSTER UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. SAME GOES FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS LESS. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THOSE TWO DAYS...DIDN/T GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN STILL...THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM UP BEFORE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS/SHOWERS DEVELOP IS THERE. THURSDAY IS A BIT INTERESTING...MAY BE COMPLETELY DRY. HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST COAST OF MASS. WHAT ELSE IS NEW? FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR OKAY AT THIS TIME...PROBABLY DRY AND SEASONABLE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT. HOWEVER...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRATUS ON THE RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE SFC HIPRES. MAY NEED A CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. MAY NEED TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE INTO SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THIS EVENING...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING 23-29KTS S COAST THRU ABOUT 23Z TDY. TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR AN HR OR 2 EARLY MONDAY WITH PATCHY IFR. MONDAY...VFR. MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ISO TSTMS NW MA AND SW NH DURING THE EVENING AND FOG PATCHES MAY DEVELOP SPOTTY IFR CONDS LATE AT NIGHT. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... TUE THROUGH WED...VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY BECOME MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS SHOWERS AND ISOLD/SCT TSTMS DEVELOP. LOCALLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...VFR...BUT HAVE TO WATCH EASTERLY WIND AND ANY LOWER CLOUD POTENTIAL AT THE EAST COAST OF MASS. FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY. && .MARINE... LATE THIS AFTN...SCA CONTD S COAST GUSTY SW WINDS 24-29 KTS OTRW THE SCA WINDS MID MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY ON E COASTAL MA HAVE SETTLED. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND SEAS BLO 5 FT. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EKSTER NEAR TERM...STRAUSS SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...EKSTER AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER