000 FXUS61 KBOX 130237 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1037 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2008 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG OCEAN STORM WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BE A DRY STORM FOR THE REGION...BUT WINDY ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... PREVIOUS FORECAST VERIFYING NICELY WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...SO ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH 10 PM UPDATED FORECAST. WIND FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND OBSERVATIONS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONE MORE PULSE OF STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE AND CONTINUING MUCH OF THE MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THUS...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE. 06Z GFS APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT WIND SPEEDS WELL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEPICTS SECOND SURGE OF WIND TO ARRIVE HERE 5 AM - 8 AM TUE. DRY WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS VERTICALLY STACKED OCEAN STORM REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC...KEEPING ANY PRECIP WELL OFFSHORE. && .SHORT TERM /5 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WIND ADVY POTENTIAL AT ACK AND A SMALL PTN OF CAPE COD TUESDAY MORNING. EC AND GFS APPARENTLY ROTATE ONE LAST LOBE OF STRONG WIND TO THE COAST TUE MORNING AND THIS SHOULD THE TIME OF STRONGEST WIND FOR ACK/PVC REGION. EXPECTING NORMAL SPRING WEATHER TUESDAY... BUT WITH QUITE GUSTY WINDS AND A MORE CONTINENTAL FLOW. COULD RESULT IN EVEN LOWER HUMIDITY THAN NOW FCST. NAM MXG HTS UP NR 6K AND BL BUFKIT BL WINDS GIVE US A LOW RANGE OF 22 KTS TO HIGH 30 KTS AT 18Z. SUSPECT WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER BL AND HIGHER GUSTS PREVAIL TOMORROW. 12Z GFS MOS GUIDE WAS FAR TOO WEAK TODAY AND OUR USE NAM MXG HT AND GFS GUST ALG WAS MUCH BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUE NIGHT RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. FROST CONSIDERED ONLY AS A SLIGHT RISK IN VULNERABLE MA PIKE SWD REGION AND NOT A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENT OF CONCERN ATTM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS AT 5-7C. WITH FULL SOLAR MIXING IN THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB AT LEAST TO NEAR 70. WITH THE CURRENT SUN HEIGHT AND LENGTH OF DAY...MIXING WILL LIKELY GO HIGHER THAN 850 MB...AND SUPPORT WARMER MAX TEMPS. MIXING TO 800 MB /4C/ WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. A LIGHT FLOW WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW IN EASTERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST...THOSE AREAS SHOULD MAX OUT EARLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS EARLY THURSDAY BUT MOST OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE UP NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WITH THE COLD FRONT AND LIMIT THEM TO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF US FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A MEAN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW JUST OUTSIDE OF 40N/70W. THIS SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS TURNPIKE. GFS/ENSEMBLE/ECMWF ALSO POINT TO LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA SWINGING THRU THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WOULD POINT TO A CLOUDY SHOWERY PATTERN FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 09Z MAINLY NEAR COAST /HYA-ACK/ WHERE 30 TO 40KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER 10Z TO 12Z AS OCEAN LOW PULLS AWAY... EXPECT WIDESPREAD 20 TO 30KT GUSTS BUT AS HIGH AS 40KT KACK. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 21Z TUE. VFR AT KBOS THROUGH 00Z WED. NE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AFTER 04Z /25KT/ AND WILL LIKELY GUST AS HIGH AS 30KT 11Z TO 17Z TUE. VFR TUE NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. OUTLOOK... WED...VFR. THU...VFR...BECOMING MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRI...VFR IN CLOUDS. SAT...VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .MARINE... DESPITE SUB-GALE WINDS OBSERVED THIS EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF NE GALE EXPECTED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS TIMING AND AREA. FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-GALE TONIGHT AND TUE. GALE DIMINISHES TUE AFTN BUT LONG LASTING BASHING BY THE OCEAN SWELLS LAST THRU AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WED...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 25 KNOTS. SEAS ON THE INNER WATERS WILL ALSO DIMINISH. HOWEVER SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS SHOULD LINGER AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THU...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS MAINLY EAST OF CAPE COD. FRI...WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WHICH WILL HAVE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. SAT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET MOST WATERS...EXCEPT 5 TO 7 FEET AND SUBSIDING ON THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. && .FIRE WEATHER... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE. ALTHOUGH LINGERING NE WIND COMPONENT MAY PRECLUDE LOWER RH VALUES AND WIND GUSTS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 25 MPH AND HIGHER WITH ANY CONSISTENCY. WE WILL RE-EVALUTE WITH NEW GUID OVERNIGHT AND UPDATED FORECAST BY 4AM. UNTIL THEN WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... STORM SURGE OF 1.20 FT - 1.35 FT WAS OBSERVED DURING THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES AND ONLY MODEST WAVE ACTION /8-12 FT SEAS OFFSHORE/...LITTLE IF ANY COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WAS OBSERVED PER OUR COORDINATION WITH NANTUCKET FIRE DEPT. EXPECT SURGE VALUES TO BE SIMILAR WITH TUE MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE...HOWEVER WAVE ACTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH SEAS 12-15 FT OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR. SO AS A RESULT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY STATEMENTS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>005-008>012- 026. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-024. NH...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-012-015. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-250. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB NEAR TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 1037 PM SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/JWD/NOCERA - UPDATED 1037 PM MARINE...WTB/DRAG/NOCERA - UPDATED 1037 PM FIRE WEATHER...NOCERA - UPDATED 1037 PM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA - UPDATED 1037 PM