000
FXUS64 KBMX 260341
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
940 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009

.UPDATE...DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS 
EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FALLING AND ALREADY INTO THE 30S IN 
MOST LOCATIONS. A FAIRLY STRONG...YET DRY...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER 
THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS BEFORE SUNRISE BUT REALLY DO NOT THINK 
THIS WILL HAVE A GREAT EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. WINDS BEGIN TO PICK 
UP JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE...BUT COOLING WILL HAVE MAXED OUT BY 
THEN. THEREFORE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT 
LOWS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. MOST AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND 
A FEW SPOTS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING. 

THANKSGIVING DAY STILL LOOKS RAIN FREE BUT COOLER. A FEW CLOUDS MAY 
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...BUT PLENTY OF 
SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL AND 
REACH THE 50S IN MOST PLACES. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ON 
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SUSTAINED BEHIND 
THE FRONT AROUND 15 MPH. A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 MPH. 
THEREFORE...ADDED MENTION OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE HWO THIS 
EVENING AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. HAVE A GREAT 
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND UPDATES ARE ON THE WAY.

75

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY 
MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH BETWEEN 15 AND 
18Z. ONLY IMPACTS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 
SUSTAINED OF 12 TO 15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS 
AROUND AS WELL...BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS. 

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/

COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S/40S AREA WIDE. A RE-ENFORCING SHOT
OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. THE DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.

HIGHS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM GATHERS STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. GFS
MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST INCONSISTENT MODEL WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO
RUN DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND RAIN CHANCES RAISED TO LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES INTO
AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUSPECT AS MODELS ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE EXTENT OF PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROFS. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE NOW
DEPICTING A WEAKER SYSTEM AFFECTING ALABAMA MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES.

THE OVERALL TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET AND COOL MONDAY THRU 
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE 
WEEK.

58/ROSE

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$