000
FXUS61 KBGM 130527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS...BACK TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT RAIN PULLING OUT TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF OUR EXTREME SE CWA. THIS RAIN WILL END THIS AFTN. LOW
CLOUDS ALSO MOVING OUT TO THE SE TONIGHT. WINDS ALSO DROPPING AS
THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER DELMARVA MOVES WELL
EAST OUT TO SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC WITH UL RIDGING. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. COOL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FROST OVER
THE COLDER AREAS OF CWA SUCH AS THE CATSKILLS AND STEUBEN COUNTY. 
THE HGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH A SW LL FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT.
THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING SOME OF WHEN THE PRECIP COMES
IN. LOW CHC POPS IN THE FAR WEST WED AFTN. STRENGTH OF THE FRONT
WEAKENS AS THE BEST FORCING LIFTS N OF THE CWA. QPF WILL BE LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH. RAIN ENDS THU AM. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS UPSTATE NY LATE THU WHILE
A STORM MOVES NE INTO PA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING TYPICAL DIFFERENCES WITH LOCATION... TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 3... BUT THE MAIN THEME TO
THE WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A TREND
TOWARD UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. EXPECT FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO TRACK SOUTH OF NE PA / NY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THE TRACK OF
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS FIRST 24 HOUR PERIOD. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT RIVER VALLEY FOG. LIGHT WINDS WILL MAINLY FLOW
ALONG THE TERRAIN THIS MORNING, THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO
10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR FOG AT KELM TUES
OR WED MORNING. SOME MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN