000 FXUS61 KBGM 060003 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 803 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .SYNOPSIS... IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW PA WILL PROVIDE CLEAR WX AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT. DWPTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPR 40S WILL SIGNAL OVERNIGHT LOWS 45-50 WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE AND MIN TEMPS FROM THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MINNESOTA TODAY IS FORECAST TO DIG SLOWLY INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS...BUT THE NAM APPEARS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS GIVEN ONLY A MODEST RISE IN MOISTURE AS DWPTS GO FROM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LEADING S/WV WILL INCREASE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A DIURNALLY INCREASING TREND OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS IS EXIBITING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AN AVERAGE OF 500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH SBCAPES APCHG 1000 J/KG. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY W-NWLY FLOW ALOFT, WE PREFER TO LEAN WITH THE LOWER CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS OF THE GFS...BUT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS UL LOW...WILL LEAVE A SLGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE FCST FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR DIURNAL TRENDS TO ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH TUES AND WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAYS AND ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS. MIXING 800 MB TEMPS TO THE SURFACE YIELDS DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ON MONDAY...AND LOW-MID 70S TUES-WEDS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 40S-MID 50S. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE'VE SEEN LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO WE'LL KEEP IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SOME IMPROVEMENT STILL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AS THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR STILL EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KELM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. DUE TO VERY LOW CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE, IFR FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. ON MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS LIKELY DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING. INCLUDED FOUR HOUR TEMPO GROUP AT ALL TAFS FOR UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE INDICES RATHER WEAK THEREFORE CB/THUNDERSTORMS NOT INCLUDED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK... .TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...JAB SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...RRM