000 FXUS61 KBGM 230940 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 440 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST INTO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS STORM RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SEEING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 307 AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED BACK INTO THE CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA PER THE LATEST SURFACE OBS PLOT/11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE LOOP. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS STRATUS LAYER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IS RATHER LOW GIVEN THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING IT ALL THAT WELL. IN ADDITION A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AS EVIDENT BY A HAZY APPEARANCE OUTSIDE AND A THICK FROST ALREADY FORMING...WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS THE STRATUS LAYER WILL MOVE AS FAR WEST AS A LINE FROM ELMIRA TO BINGHAMTON TO NORWICH BY DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG. THE CLOUD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOUGH TODAY WITH THE STRATUS IN PLACE AT DAYBREAK....ALONG WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE COAST. THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY ERODE A BIT ON THE WESTERN EDGES BY MIDDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH PA. BEST SHOT AT APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF SUN TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES UP THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. HERE TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 40S FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THAT HIGH MAY TRY TO MOVE IN A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD DUSK ACROSS THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. EVEN HERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH FINALLY RETREATS ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW THE MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR MOST...BUT UP TO TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 307 AM...RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE EAST BY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST UP THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THICKNESS VALUES WELL TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT RAIN. LOOKS LIKE ALL THE FUN IS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID WEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE SFC LOW IS SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SFC LOW WILL EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A SISTER SFC LOW THAT TRACKS INLAND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IN THE FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT TRACK. HOW THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND A LITTLE LESS OF A SISTER LOW AND THIS COULD BECOME A STRONG COASTAL STORM. THE TEMPS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE RAIN. HOWEVER...AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES...COLDER TEMPS MOVE IN AND THE PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. 1000-500 THICKNESS DROP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TO BELOW 540DM AND POSSIBLY TO AROUND 530DM ON SATURDAY. THE ISSUE WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK. THE GFS HAS THE SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS VT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A TYPICAL TRACK. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW STAYING ALONG THE COAST ALL THE WAY UP PAST NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WOULD SEEM MORE LIKELY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THIS TRACK FOR NOW. WITH THIS...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS WEEKEND..WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY RUN TO RUN ON INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE PRECIP. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD...THE SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -4 OR -5 C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW DOES QUICKLY MOVE OUT AND THE SFC FLOW DIES DOWN. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A SOMEWHAT TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST. KAVP HAS HAD MVFR CEILINGS ALL NIGHT AND KBGM HAS NOW HAD CEILINGS MOVE IN THAT ARE ALSO MVFR. THE TAF SITE NORTH HAVE BEEN CLEAR. THIS HAS ALLOWED KELM TO BECOME FOGGED IN WITH DENSE FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SOME VERY LIGHT FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AT KITH...IT HAS MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER. KSYR AND KRME HAVE ALSO BEEN VFR ALL NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OTHER NON TAF AIRPORTS HAVE ALSO REPORTED SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION...SO LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IS A REAL POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW FAR THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL MOVE. THE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON IT AT ALL...AND DAYBREAK SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IT...AT LEAST STOP ITS PROGRESSION AND ALLOW IT TO LIFT SOME. CONDITIONS WILL DROP THIS EVENING HOWEVER ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO MVFR. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED AS MIST AND/OR FOG FORM IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PRECIPITATION. OUTLOOK... SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR. MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR. THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS. && .CLIMATE... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND IT MAY COME JUST IN TIME TO KEEP ONE OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS FROM BREAKING AN ALL TIME RECORD. SYRACUSE, NY HAS NOT SEEN AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH OF LAST WINTER. THROUGH TODAY (11/23) THAT IS A TOTAL OF 271 DAYS WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR GREATER OF SNOWFALL. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 3RD PLACE ALL TIME. GIVEN OUR CURRENT FORECAST WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW. IF THE FORECAST VERIFIES THAT WOULD MOVE US INTO A TIE FOR 2ND. IN ORDER TO BREAK THE RECORD OF 276 DAYS SET BACK IN 1946...WE WOULD NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS SUNDAY (11/29) WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AT THE AIRPORT. * THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FOR SYRACUSE. TOP 5 1) 1946 276 DAYS (FEB 27TH - DEC 1ST) 2) 1998 274 DAYS (MAR 22ND - DEC 22ND) 3) 2009 271 DAYS (THROUGH 11/23) 4) 1978 265 DAYS (MAR 6 - NOV 27) 5) 1932/1941 263 DAYS (MAR 21ST - DEC 10TH) && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM...HEDEN SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...10 AVIATION...10 CLIMATE...HEDEN