000 FXUS64 KAMA 240534 AAA AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1134 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .AVIATION... MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE. STRONG LL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS WINDS OFF THE SURFACE SO WAS CONCERNED LLWS MAY BE AN ISSUE AFTER 06Z. ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE THE GENLY UNIFORM WIND DIRECTION AS THE SFC AND LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE BLOWING FROM THE NORTH. WENT ON THE CAUTIOUS SIDE AGAIN AND INSERTED LLWS REMARKS THROUGH 15 OR 16Z...BUT THEN ANTICIPATE THE LL JET WEAKENING AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING. SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES STARTING AROUND 18 TO 21Z WHICH WILL HELP KNOCK WIND SPEEDS DOWN BELOW 10 KNOTS. JJB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/ UPDATE... UPDATED PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS MAINLY FOR EVENING TEMPORAL WORDING OF WINDS. WINDS DIMINISHING EXCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN IN THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY MOST OF TONIGHT. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINT AND RH GRIDS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECASTS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. ALL PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT. SCHNEIDER PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/ AVIATION... MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE. CURRENT SFC WINDS STILL NEAR 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. AM CONCERNED WINDS MAY STAY GUSTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO KEPT THE WINDS UP THROUGH 02 OR 03Z...BUT SHOULD THEN SEE WINDS FALL TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG LL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS WINDS OFF THE SURFACE SO WAS CONCERNED LLWS MAY BE AN ISSUE AFTER 09Z. ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE THE GENLY UNIFORM WIND DIRECTION AS THE SFC AND LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE BLOWING FROM THE NORTH. WENT ON THE CAUTIOUS SIDE AGAIN AND INSERTED LLWS REMARKS THROUGH 15 OR 16Z...BUT THEN ANTICIPATE THE LL JET WEAKENING AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING FOR THE REST OF THE TAF. JJB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/ DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I 40 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40KT AT TIMES. DESPITE THE COLDER AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED MIXING...LEADING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS...AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY...SURFACE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NM STATE LINE...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ENHANCED WARMING ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY. COULD SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL GET SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...BUT MORE LIKELY WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON SATURDAY...ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MODELS NOW SHOWING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND COMING CLOSER INTO AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MOSTLY RAIN SUNDAY CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR MASS IS AS DEEP AS THE GFS IS SHOWING...THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE MOSTLY SNOW. SJOHNSON FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONCE THE FRONT REACHES THESE LOCATIONS HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RAPIDLY RECOVER...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY TOMORROW...COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION...AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SJOHNSON && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 14/11