000 FXUS64 KAMA 061737 AAB AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1237 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2009 .AVIATION... CU DEVELOPMENT IS WELL UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE DEPICTS ENHANCED DEVLEOPMENT ALONG WEAK SFC TROF/CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST W OF KAMA. WITH WEAK H5 COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN NW FLOW...AND WITH H5 SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD INTO FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE CALL FOR CB AS CLOUD TYPE...WITH THREAT OF TSTMS THRU THIS EVE AT ALL TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...SELY SFC WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE...DIMINISHING AT BIT AROUND 06Z TUE...THEN BECOMING SWLY AROUND 15 KT BY 15Z TUE. NO STRATUS OR FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. APART FROM BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN TSTMS...VFR FCST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS. COCKRELL && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009/ AVIATION... LOW END MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KAMA THIS MORNING BUT HAVE FAILED TO MATERIALIZE ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 14Z. A MODEST CU/SCU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND THIS TIME AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROF. CB REMARKS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/CO THIS AFTERNOON AND ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEE INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINALS AS EARLY AS 22Z. CB REMARKS WERE RETAINED UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z. TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS BUT I WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MADE FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO TIMING. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS. JOHNSON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009/ DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ALONG A SHORT WAVE ARE EXITING THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR FOR MUCH LONGER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SETTLES INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THE SHEAR INCREASES AS MID LEVEL WINDS PICKUP THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT STRONG WINDS COULD BE A THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO HAIL. CLOUD COVER MAY SLOW DAYTIME HEATING AND COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN AREAS OF THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY AND WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY MIDWEEK...A TRANSITION TO DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE WET CONDITIONS DUE TO RECENT RAINS SHOULD LIMIT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND CONTINUING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. WYNNE FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS AND THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH CRITICAL SPEEDS THROUGH TUESDAY. WYNNE && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 03/16