000
FXUS64 KAMA 091159 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
559 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECTING
LOW CLOUDS TO FILTER INTO DHT/AMA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CEILINGS TO PERSIST FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG SEEM LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE BROUGHT SOME IFR CONDITIONS TO
GUY/AMA FOR NOW...BUT EVEN LOWER CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
TAF CYCLES. HAVE LEFT ANY PRECIP REMARKS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA IMPACTING THE TERMINALS.

TAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT HAS
SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.  HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADZY FOR
EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FCST AREA...VALID THRU 10 AM.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FCST.  MODEST UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PCPN TDA AND TNGT.  ELEVATED INSTBY ACROSS SERN
HALF OF FCST AREA MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN OCCASIONAL CLAP OF
THUNDER THIS AFTN.

AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TNGT AND TUE NGT AS LIGHT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PREVAILS.  THU AND FRI EXPECTED TO BE WARMEST DAYS OF FCST...AS
PRE-FRONTAL SWLY SFC WINDS INCREASE UNDER A CLEAR SKY.  NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRI AFTN AND FRI EVE.  NO POPS ARE IN FCST
WITH FROPA AS AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LACK ADEQUATE MSTR.  SAT AND SUN
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN VERY MOIST.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.  NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
EXCESSIVE.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

10/03