000 FXUS61 KALY 082051 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY HAS TRACKED THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO CLOUDS ARE WITHIN MANY MILES OF OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...AND TREND TOWARD A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COLD AIR INTERACTING WITH WARMER LAKES AND RIVERS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHORES OF RIVERS AND LAKES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANY MORNING FOG WILL LIFT...AND THE SKY SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH...BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. BASED ON UPSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AND THE HIGHS UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INDICATION...WE SHOULD GET A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEAR 70 WARMER SPOTS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH TIMING FROM GUIDANCE SOURCES CONTINUING TO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES. WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...NEAR 50 WARMER SPOTS...AND AROUND 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME MIX OF CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND TUESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENING...AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES JUST BEGINNING TO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S...LOWER TO MID 50S ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO NOT INCLUDING AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL COOLING. THE QUESTION OF WHEN/IF IDA INTERACTS WITH UPPER ENERGY TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS...AND WHAT POTENTIAL STORM OR NO STORM RESULTS. MOST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES EITHER DELAY ANY MERGING...OR KEEP A POTENTIAL STORM WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION...SO KEEPING OUR REGION DRY AND CONTINUED DEEP COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES...BUT VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES. AT THIS POINT...SUGGESTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S...AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHAT NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS DO IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERALL DRY PATTERN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THEREFORE WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. ECMWF ALSO INDICATES THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO REMAIN NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW INCREASES. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON/S BAY TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHC SO FAR OUT INTO THE FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD... RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BASICALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE LAND THIS AFTERNOON AS EARLIER SC ERODED DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH GFL AND ALB AS OF 1730Z...KICKING NW WINDS UP TO A FEW KNOTS...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. THUS THE BALANCE OF TODAY WILL OFFER AN IDEAL FLYING OPPORTUNITY. A LAYER OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS NE PA MAY CONDENSE INTO CI AS IT PASSES NEAR POU...OTRW CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT WHEN SOME CI/AC ROLLS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT GFL...BUT WHETHER IT GETS ALL THE WAY DOWN DOWN TO IFR IS QUESTIONABLE. SO...OUTSIDE OF GFL...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK... MON PM-MON NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX. TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA. CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY...MAINLY POU. WED NGT-THU...VFR...NO WX. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...KGS AVIATION...ELH HYDROLOGY...NAS