000
AGUS72 KALR 311549
HMDALR
ALR

HYDROLOGIST FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER / ATLANTA, GA
1124 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2009 

ATTENTION/ AREA AFFECTED WFO: ALR JAN MEG 

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE TOMBIGBEE BASIN: 

...MINOR FLOODING IN PARTS OF THE UPPER TOMBIGBEE ...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER TOMBIGBEE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
HAVE PUT SEVERAL RIVERS ON THE RISE AND SEVERAL ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. NEARLY SATURATED SOILS IN THIS REGION...INDICATED 
BY THE FACT THAT OCTOBER RAINFALL WAS 300 TO 400 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
...IS MAKING FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF SCENARIO.  UPPER 
ZONE TENSION WATERS IN THE SERFC SAC SMA RUNOFF MODEL ARE NEARLY FULL 
AT ALL LOCATIONS ALSO SIGNIFYING THE HIGHLY WET CONDITIONS RIPE FOR 
RUNOFF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
IN THE NEED TO PUSH CRESTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...THOUGH MODERATE FLOODING 
AT ANY OF THE LOCATIONS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

JCD

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THE SERFC IS INTERESTED IN THE USEFULNESS OF THIS
PRODUCT AND WELCOMES YOUR COMMENTS OR FEEDBACK ON 
HOW THIS WAS USED IN YOUR OPERATIONS. PLEASE SEND
ANY COMMENTS TO....JOHN.FELDT@NOAA.GOV


...SERFC...




$$