000
AGUS72 KALR 041435
HMDALR
ALR

HYDROLOGIST FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER / ATLANTA, GA
1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 04 2009 

ATTENTION/ AREA AFFECTED WFO: ALR TBW 

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE CENTRAL FLORIDA BASINS: 

...WATERS CONTINUE TO RISE ON THE MYAKKA RIVER ...

WATERS CONTINUE TO RISE ON THE MYAKKA RIVER NEAR SARASOTA STATE PARK 
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.  THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA CITY HAS CRESTED AT 10.65 FEET OVERNIGHT.
.  THIS WATER WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW DOWNRIVER TO THE SARASOTA STATE 
PARK GAGE.  A CREST OF 10.65 FEET AT MAKF1 USING CREST TO CREST RELATIONSHIPS 
INDICATES A CREST AT BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.5 FEET AT MKCF1 OR ON AVERAGE 
NEAR THE 7 FOOT FLOOD MARK. LOOKING BACK AT THE RAINFALL SPATIAL DISTRIBUTIONS 
DURING THE PAST 7 DAYS DOES NOT POINT TO ONE SIDE OF THE 7 FOOT MARK 
OR THE OTHER AND THUS THINKING LATEST FORECAST NEARING 7 FEET SEVERAL 
DAYS FROM NOW LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.  WILL KEEP WITH 6.9 FEET FORECAST 
OR JUST UNDER FLOOD FOR NOW BUT FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE REFINED TO 
INDICATE MINOR FLOODING AT MKCF1...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL IS IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO OR NEAR THE CREST TIME 
PERIOD.

JCD

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THE SERFC IS INTERESTED IN THE USEFULNESS OF THIS
PRODUCT AND WELCOMES YOUR COMMENTS OR FEEDBACK ON 
HOW THIS WAS USED IN YOUR OPERATIONS. PLEASE SEND
ANY COMMENTS TO....JOHN.FELDT@NOAA.GOV


...SERFC...




$$