620 FGUS71 KAKQ 212102 ESFAKQ MDC019-039-045-047-NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-VAC001- 007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093-095- 097-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-147-149-159- 175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740- 760-800-810-830-042115- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 502 PM EDT THU MAR 21 2013 ...SIXTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2013... ...RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL NEAR NORMAL THROUGH APRIL 4TH... EACH WINTER AND EARLY SPRING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WAKEFIELD ISSUES A SERIES OF FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS. THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD FORECAST OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THE HSA INCLUDES CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM FLOWS... RIVER ICE...AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN THIS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR THAT LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW. THE FOLLOWING IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF CURRENT CONDITIONS: CURRENT FLOODING - NO RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN FLOOD AS OF 4 PM THURSDAY MARCH 21ST. RECENT PRECIPITATION - OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS...FROM MARCH 7TH THROUGH MARCH 21ST...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50 INCHES TO NEARLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS FELL OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE TIDEWATER. IN THIS AREA THE RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD WERE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL IN A BAND FROM LOUISA COUNTY EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN NECK INTO ACCOMACK COUNTY ON THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE 2 TO 3 INCH BAND OF RAIN WAS 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD. LOOKING LONGER TERM BACK TO THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...JANUARY 1...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE HSA HAS SEEN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAIN FALL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH BETWEEN 10 AND 15 INCHES OF RAIN. HOWEVER...MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA ARE NOW SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH DEFICITS FOR THE PERIOD WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR. AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH RAIN HAS FALLEN SO THAT NO PORTION OF THE HSA IS DESIGNATED AS BEING ABNORMALLY DRY OR IN DROUGHT. FOR FURTHER DROUGHT INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML SNOW CONDITIONS - AVERAGE. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW FELL THIS MORNING...MARCH 21ST...BUT NOW MEASURABLE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. RIVER ICE - AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO ICE ON AREA WATERS IN THE WAKEFIELD HSA. STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. THE 14 DAY AVERAGE FLOWS ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD HSA SHOW ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE FLOWS ACROSS THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND PORTIONS OF THE JAMES...REAPPEARANCE AND YORK BASINS...DUE LARGELY TO THE HIGH FLOWS EARLY IN THE TWO WEEK PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...THE 14 DAY FLOWS HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOKING AT THE DAILY STREAM FLOWS TODAY...MARCH 21ST...SHOWS THAT THE RIVER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN FROM THE HIGH VALUES THAT WERE IN PLACE TWO WEEKS AGO. THE LOWEST FLOWS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHOWAN BASIN WHERE DAILY FLOWS ARE HOVERING BETWEEN NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AS RAIN FALL WAS LACKING OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS. SOME OBSERVED DAILY STREAM FLOWS WITH THE MEDIAN FLOW AS OF MIDDAY ON THE 21ST OF MARCH: LOCATION OBSERVED MEDIAN/PERCENTAGE OF MEDIAN RIVANNA RIVER/PALMYRA VA 1280CFS 785CFS/163.1 JAMES RIVER/CARTERSVILLE VA 13000CFS 9430CFS/137.9 JAMES RIVER/RICHMOND VA 10300CFS 14400CFS/ 71.5 APPOMATTOX RIVER/FARMVILLE VA 259CFS 317CFS/ 81.7 APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATTOAX VA 768CFS 848CFS/ 90.6 APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATOACA VA 1610CFS 1700CFS/ 94.7 NOTTOWAY RIVER/RAWLINGS VA 254CFS 368CFS/ 69.0 NOTTOWAY RIVER/STONY CREEK VA 595CFS 779CFS/ 76.4 NOTTOWAY RIVER/SEBRELL VA 1600CFS 2310CFS/ 69.3 MEHERRIN RIVER/EMPORIA VA 486CFS 888CFS/ 54.7 BLACKWATER RIVER/FRANKLIN VA 938CFS 1020CFS/ 92.0 MATTAPONI RIVER/BOWLING GREEN VA 437CFS 338CFS/129.3 MATTAPONI RIVER/BEULAHVILLE VA 935CFS 923CFS/101.3 BEAVER DAM CREEK/SALISBURY MD 38CFS 31CFS/122.6 POCOMOKE RIVER/ WILLARDS MD 113CFS 104CFS/108.7 POTECASI CREEK/UNION NC 90CFS 261CFS/ 34.5 SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS INCLUDING THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX...WHICH IS USED TO INFER DEEP SOIL MOISTURE...SHOWS...AS OF MARCH 16TH...THAT THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA ARE IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR SOIL MOISTURE. BUT FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE DELMARVA...THEY ARE DENOTED AS UNUSUALLY MOIST. THIS IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS DEPICTION ON MARCH 2ND. THE CPC SOIL MOISTURE MONITOR...WHICH LOOKS MORE AT THE TOPSOIL MOISTURE...STILL SHOWS A SMALL POSITIVE ANOMALY FOR EASTERN VIRGINIA FROM THE TIDEWATER THROUGH THE NORTHERN NECK. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AND THE DELMARVA SHOW NEAR NORMAL TOP SOIL MOISTURE. GROUND WATER - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. GROUND WATER WELLS IN THE CLIMATE RESPONSE NETWORK ARE ALL INDICATING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL GROUND WATER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH EACH RAIN EVENT THE GROUND WATER WELLS ARE RESPONDING WITH INCREASING WATER LEVELS...WHICH GIVES AN INDICATION THAT WITH EACH RAIN EVENT...THE GROUNDWATER CONTINUES TO BE RECHARGED. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL. RESERVOIRS LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR GUIDE CURVE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WATER STORAGE IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE. WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE WEATHER... FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY THE 23RD OF MARCH. HOWEVER A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES ON THE 24TH AND 25TH WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. TOTAL RAIN FOR THE EVENT COULD RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FROM THE 26TH THROUGH 28TH...COLD AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD...FROM MARCH 29 THROUGH APRIL 4TH... THE OUTLOOK IS FOR CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LASTLY...THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APRIL THROUGH JUNE SHOWS AN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. FOR PRECIPITATION...THE AREA IS IN THE EQUAL CHANCES CATEGORY...WHICH MEANS THE CHANCES ARE THE SAME FOR BELOW NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THROUGH APRIL 4 2013... THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS NORMAL FOR ALL BASINS...INCLUDING THE JAMES AND APPOMATTOX AND OTHER TRIBUTARIES ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA... THE CHOWAN BASIN IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... THE LOWER ROANOKE BASIN IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH APRIL 4TH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE SEASON...UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE. REGULARLY SCHEDULED OUTLOOKS WILL RESUME IN JANUARY OF 2014. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER OR HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD. $$